Key Insights: – Bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) are under pressure, with ETH sliding to sub-$1,300 and a new September low.- Risk aversion hit riskier assets through the morning, with Fed and recession fears weighing on the crypto market.- Technical indicators are bearish, suggesting a possible look at 2022 lows.On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) slid by 3.51%.Reversing a 1.57% gain from Saturday, BTC ended the week down 11.1% to $19,418.A bearish Sunday session saw BTC tumble from an early high of $20,125 to a late low of $19,350.BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,851 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,576 to end the week at sub-$19,500.Reversing a 2.44% gain from Saturday, ethereum (ETH) tumbled by 9.12%.
The bearish Sunday left ETH down 24.5% to $1,335 for the week.Tracking the broader market, ETH fell from an early high of $1,470 to a late low of $1,326.
ETH fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,427 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,384 to end the week at sub-$1,350.Following Saturday’s brief relief, investor focus shifted from the Ethereum Merge to the Federal Reserve.
While there was little change in sentiment towards this week’s rate hike, last week’s US CPI report delivered uncertainty over what to expect in the coming months.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a percentage point rate hike on November 2 sits at 13.3%, up from 0.0% a week ago.While the chances of a 75-basis point rate hike held steady, the probability of a 50-basis point rate fell from 30.7% to 27.0% over the last seven days.There are no US economic indicators between now and the Wednesday policy decision to shift sentiment, leaving BTC and ETH at the mercy of the Fed and fears of a global recession.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action At the time of writing, BTC was down 4.87% to $18,472.A bearish morning saw BTC slide from an early high of $19,522 to a new September low of $18,256.
BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,137 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,856.Technical Indicators BTC needs to move through S2, S1, and the $19,631 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,912 and the Sunday high of $20,125.
With investors looking ahead to Wednesday’s monetary policy decision, the NASDAQ 100 will continue to influence.The NASDAQ 100 Mini was down 120 points this morning.In the case of a broad-based crypto rebound, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,406 and resistance at $20,500.The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,181.
Failure to move through S2, S1, and the pivot would leave the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $18,081 in play.
In case of an extended sell-off through the afternoon session, the June/2022 low of $17,605 could come into view.Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal.This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $20,038.The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish price signals.A move through R1 ($19,912) and the 50-day EMA ($20,038) would give the bulls a run at the 100-day EMA ($20,300) and R2 (20,406).
The 200-day EMA sits at $20,769.However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave BTC under pressure.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Action At the time of writing, ETH was down 2.78% to $1,298.A bearish morning saw ETH slide from an early high of $1,354 to a new September low of $1,279.ETH tested the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,284.
Technical Indicators ETH needs to move through the $1,377 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,428 and the Sunday high of $1,470.However, there will need to be a marked shift in risk sentiment to support a return to $1,400.In the event of an extended rally, ETH could target the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,521.The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,665.Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,284 in play.
Barring an extended afternoon sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,200.The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,233 should limit the downside.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,089.Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal.Ethereum sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,505.
The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.An ETH breakout from R1 ($1,428) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($1,505) and R2 ($1,521).However, market risk sentiment will need to improve materially to support a return to $1,400..
