05/1 update below.This post was originally published on April 29
Bitcoin BTC , ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies have rocketed higher so far this year ( despite a stark warning that China, Joe Biden and the Federal Reserve could “destroy all value of bitcoin “).
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The bitcoin price has doubled from its late 2022 lows to around $30,000 per bitcoin while ethereum and other top ten cryptocurrencies BNB BNB , XRP XRP , cardano, dogecoin, polygon and solana have added a combined $200 billion to the crypto market— fueling hopes “crypto winter” could finally be over .
Now, technology investor Balaji Srinivasan has explained the rationale behind his $1 million bitcoin price bet, telling a bitcoin and crypto conference that he’s “burning a million to tell you they’re printing trillions.”
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Srinivasan, an early bitcoin investor and former chief technology officer at crypto exchange Coinbase, made headlines in March when he predicted the U.S.dollar would enter a hyperinflationary death spiral and the bitcoin price would climb to $1 million by June 16—an increase of over 3,000% from its current level that would give bitcoin a market capitalization of around $20 trillion.
However, he’s now dialed that back but remains highly skeptical of the U.S.financial system due to the proliferation of money printing by the government to prop up fragile banks, calling his bet a “directional signal” to “raise awareness of the fiat crisis.”
05/1 update: Srinivasan has denied he’s “backtracking” on this bitcoin bet, posting to Twitter: “I said 10% chance fiat crisis happens in months, 70% chance in years, 19% chance in decades, 1% in centuries.But 10% is very high, and worth drawing attention to.Others also believe the probability of sovereign default is at all time highs.”
The U.S.government is currently approaching a debt ceiling, with the deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion limit fast approaching and causing concern for investors.
Srinivasan also said he’d give an update to his bet “soon,” adding: “Markets also put the probability of U.S.sovereign default at all time highs.
And that’s just debt-ceiling-driven explicit default.Doesn’t include all the routes to monetizing debt.”
“I don’t know how many months—years—we have,” Balaji said during Coindesk ‘s Consensus conference this week.
“If you think like a trader, you think that too early is the same as being wrong.If you think like a prepper, hell is truth seen too late.”
“Just to quantify it, I think we have a 10% chance of a very serious issue in months, 70% in years, 19% in decades, and 1% it takes a century or so on,” Balaji said, referring to a so-called “black swan”-style event.
“Could it be that it takes 900 days or even 90 months? It’s possible, I don’t have a 100% probability on it.I may be wrong, but I’m burning a million to tell you they’re printing trillions.”
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This week, the banking crisis that saw the demise of Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse and crypto-friendly banks Signature and Silvergate earlier this year has hit San Francisco-based First Republic.
Government officials and agencies are in talks to rescue First Republic after it suffered $100 billion of outflows and its share price crashed by 98% this year while interest rates—that have rocketed at a historical pace over the last 12 months—have heavily weighed on the value of the bank’s mortgage book and other assets.
“Trust the Fed, end up dead,” Balaji added.”Fed lied, banks died.”
Fresh concerns swirling around the U.S.banking system have pushed the bitcoin price higher this week, reflecting a similar bitcoin, ethereum, BNB, XRP, polygon, dogecoin and solana price boom earlier this year during the Silicon Valley Bank banking crisis.
“The revelation of First Republic Bank’s fragile business condition has fueled bitcoin’s rally through $29,000, however, the price was rejected at the $30,000 psychological level on Wednesday and has been struggling to break past that level ever since,” Yuya Hasegawa, bitcoin and crypto market analyst at Toky0-based Bitbank, said in an emailed note.
Billy Bambrough.
