Written by
Julian Macfarlane, Tokyo based military and geopolitical analyst—and voiceover artist for SouthFront.New Front? SouthFront Video Report.Click here.
This is my voiceover for SouthFront on Transnistria.I did another such video the day after., which you can find on SouthFront’s website, which I urge you to consult regularly.I don’t write these things, just correct a few (not all) grammar mistakes since they are mostly written by non-native English speakers, assembling reports from the field.
I also don’t necessarily agree with the reports.But they offer realistic points of view.
SouthFront is a must-read site if you are interested in military intelligence.It is also banned on Facebook, which is its own recommendation, that is mostly getting things right.
The SF writers seemed to think that Romania, Ukraine and Moldova might team up to create a new front.
“Might”? “Could“? We are talking about possibilities.In war, those change by the day.
There is a small contingent of Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria, although unofficial reports say that this has been quietly reinforced.
SF believes that the target in Transnistria is a huge Soviet era ammunition depot: the UAF still mostly uses Soviet era weaponry, and they are desperate for ammunition.
On the other hand, the ammunition stored is old and unstable.An assault would be dangerous to the people of the region because if the depot went up, it could cause almost nuclear level devastation.
Given the UAF’s habit of indiscriminate artillery attacks, detonating the depot, accidentally or intentionally, is a real possibility: it would cause huge damage, which Zelensky — and the West — would take as a victory, even if the offensive was a failure.
It is significant that P
utin has cancelled the 2012 decree on Moldova.
“The decree committed Russia to seeking ways to resolve the separatist issue “based on respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of the Republic of Moldova in determining the special status of Transnistria”.
Does that mean Russia will take over Moldova? No — but Russia is now guaranteeing the independence of Transnistria and the Moldovans best not interfere since Putin will do whatever is necessary to protect this new country and the integrity of the depot.
As for Moldova, the Moldovans have seen what’s happening in Ukraine.Things are bad there and bad enough in Moldova.Why make them worse?
The Moldovan government is shaky.It is not as afraid of the Russians as it is of its own people.
Although most Moldovans identify as Moldovans, the country is multiethnic populated by Russians, Turkic peoples, Romanians, Ukrainians, , Bulgarians, Roma and others.Moldova has three pro-Russian parties, the Socialists, the Sor Party, and the Communists.
Currently the ruling party, under Dorin Recean is trying to suppress it is opposition, just as Zelensky did in Ukraine, although less violently and without the Nazi thugs to back him up.
The opposition parties are populist – with progressive, people-centered, Euroskeptic, NATO-skeptic policies.Recean’s center right conservative government is supported largely by a Western-educated Yuppy class and the Romanian speaking young, influenced by Western propaganda.
But there is widespread popular dissatisfaction with governmental malfeasance and corruption, and hard times for ordinary people.
Governmental “anticorruption” programs are seen as witch-hunts, since corruption, where it occurs, is in the bureaucracy and business.
Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe, with a population of just 4 million.
For ordinary people, it would be far better off as part of Russia or as a Russia dependency, as Transnistria is now.Those better off look to the West.
In either case, a Ukrainian offensive is the last thing that Moldova needs this moment.
The country is in no position to get into a military conflict.The US could try to force it, of course.But they would have to get the support of Romania.
Romania, however, is unlikely to get involved directly, since then the Russians would be justified in attacking it.
The 82nd Airborne is there, of course, as token protection.If it attacks the Russians, that would get the US directly involved.But their forces would be quickly destroyed without massive backup.
Backup would take time, giving the Russians the initiative.In end you would have massive casualties on the US side, something the US public is not used to.
Nothing so far suggests the US wants to go head-to-head with the Russians.Not when it would mean shattering the expensively cultured myth of American invincibility.The Offal Eagle, like the Offal Office, squawks and talks.Ever seen an eagle attacked by crows.? Or even by seagulls?
Eagles? Big beak.Nasty claws.
Huge wings.And unwieldy.Just like the US military, it likes diving on tiny prey, mice or rabbits, from great heights when it is not foraging for carrion.
Crows are mobile and smart like the Russians.
Fortunately, the Ukrainians are likely only threatening an offensive, just as they did with that “offensive” on Mariupol and Crimea recently.They don’t want a larger war, with bigger failures.
Russia so far has only committed a small percentage of its resources to its SMO — just in case, there is a full-scale war.If the SMO suddenly becomes a real “war” in the Western sense, then Goodbye Mr.
Zelensky will be running on prime time.
Maybe with We Aint Abiden Biden No More.Your sponsors: the Military Industrial Complex and CNN.
No matter – the UAF doesn’t really have the means to take Transnistria since the originally small Russian contingent of peacekeepers there would be rapidly reinforced and their own forces have been depleted in the North, as the front line collapses from Artemovsk, which is as of today’s writing almost surrounded, Ugledar.
Ugledar is holding.But once Artemovsk falls….
For the rest,
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MORE ON THE TOPIC:
War Clouds Over Transnistria A New Front In The SMO? A Fragile Balance Of Power In Transnistria Slips Towards Military Escalation.
