Key Insights: – It is a bearish week for the crypto market, with the total market cap down by $146 billion to $992.2 billion.- Market sentiment towards the Fed and the monetary policy outlook left the majors in the deep red going into the Saturday session.- Technical indicators have turned bearish, indicating further price falls should sentiment towards the Fed not change.It has been a bearish week, with US economic indicators clouding the Fed monetary policy waters.After some disappointing stats at the start of the week, US economic indicators have eased investor fears of a US economic recession.US retail sales beat forecasts, with core retail sales on the rise despite the current inflation environment.Manufacturing and labor market conditions improved, which were also bullish for riskier assets.
However, the upbeat stats also raised fears of another 75-basis point interest rate hike, or possibly more, at the next FOMC meeting.
On Thursday, hawkish FOMC member chatter led to a Friday flight to safety.There was not only the chatter of 75-basis point rate hikes but also the talk of a hike-and-hold.The comments followed the FOMC meeting minutes from Wednesday, which suggested an unwillingness to take the foot off the gas.In the current week, the total crypto market cap is down $146 billion to $992.2 billion, as investors responded to the latest shift in sentiment towards the US economy and Fed monetary policy.While the NASDAQ 100 fared better than the crypto market, the downside and correlation remained.A 2.01% loss on Friday left the NASDAQ 100 down 2.12% for the week.
For the current week, Monday through Saturday morning, Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) lead the way down, with losses of 19.5% and 18.3%, respectively.
Ethereum (ETH) and Polkadot (DOT) also struggled in the week, sliding by 16.3% and 17.0%, respectively.
Cardano ADA For the current week, Monday through Saturday morning, ADA was down 19.5% to $0.459.A mixed start to the week saw ADA strike week highs of $0.582 on Monday and Wednesday before hitting reverse.The reversal saw ADA slide to a Friday low of $0.446 before steadying.Updates on the upcoming Vasil hard fork added further selling pressure.On Thursday, Cardano developer Adam Dean reportedly announced that Cardano’s Testnet is “catastrophically broken, due to a bug.On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to target the June high of $0.6688.However, a fall through this week’s August low of $0.446 would bring the July low of $0.403 into view.Updates on the Vasil hard fork will remain the key driver.
Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.
On Saturday, ADA sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.517.A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA and a narrowing of the 100-day EMA to the 200-day EMA delivered negative price signals.A narrowing of the 50-day EMA to the 200-day EMA gives the bears a look at the July low ($0.403).
However, ADA would need to return to $0.500 and move through the 200-day EMA to shift the bearish sentiment.Polkadot (DOT) Monday through Saturday morning, DOT is down 17.0% to $7.44.
DOT rose to a Monday high of $9.38 before sliding to a Friday low of $7.24.Finding support going into the weekend, DOT returned to $7.4 levels.There were no network updates to force the slide, leaving investor sentiment towards the Fed to send DOT into the deep red.Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73.From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44.
However, DOT would need to steer clear of sub-$7.00 to avoid a continued retrace to the current year low of $5.99.While network updates will continue to influence, sentiment towards Fed monetary policy will remain a key focal point as investors shift attention to the Jackson Hole Symposium.Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.DOT sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $8.31.Following a bearish cross on Friday, the 50-day EMA closed in on the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, both DOT price negatives.
A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would bring the current year’s low of $5.99 into play.However, a DOT return to $8.00 and a move through the 200-day EMA would likely shift investor sentiment and support a run at $9.00.Ethereum (ETH) For the current week, Monday through to early Saturday, ETH was down 16.3% to $1,620.Updates on the Ethereum Merge took a back seat as investors turned their attention to the US economy and Fed monetary policy.Looking at the trends, a breakout from the August high of $2,013 and move through to $2,500 would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000.However, downside risks remain should developers announce any delay to the September Merge or Fed members deliver more hawkish chatter.A fall to sub-$1,500 would bring the July low of $1,010 into view.In the coming week, expect plenty of investor interest in the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.
ETH sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $1,692.The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA closing in on the 200-day EMA, both ETH price negatives.A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would deliver another bearish week.However, a move through the 200-day EMA could see ETH test resistance at $1,750 and the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,792.Solana (SOL) Monday through Saturday morning, SOL was down 18.3% to $36.56.A bullish start to the week saw SOL strike an early Monday high of $47.24 before hitting reverse.Five consecutive daily losses saw SOL slide to a Friday low of $35.07 before finding support.
Network news updates failed to deliver SOL price action, with angst over Fed monetary policy weighing.Looking at the trends, a return to $50 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.17.SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75.Avoiding sub-$40 and the August low of $35.07 will be the key to preventing another sell-off in the week ahead.
Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.SOL sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $41.16.After Friday’s bearish cross, the 50-day EMA converged on the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, both price negatives.A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a slide to sub-$30.Another sell-off would bring the June 14 current year low of $25.78 into view.However, an SOL return to $40 would support a move through the 200-day EMA ($41.16) and the 50-day EMA ($41.32) to bring the 100-day EMA ($41.68) into play.
In the event of a move through the 200-day EMA, we could see a momentum-driven rebound to support a run at $50..
