– Bitcoin will continue to grow and become a market driver in 2024.
– Ethereum and most industry assets will be inferior to digital gold in terms of performance.
– Investors should pay attention to sectors such as DePIN and DeSoc.
In 2024, the cryptocurrency market will enter a bullish phase, and Bitcoin will become its driver, surpassing most other assets in growth.This forecast was given by Messari founder and CEO Ryan Selkis.
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CRYPTO THESES FOR 2024
For the fifth year in a row, I wrote Messari’s annual report to celebrate crypto’s survivors and builders.
Crypto remains inevitable.
Here’s why:
[pic.twitter.com/yj2PEdYyVI]
— Ryan Selkis (d/acc) (@twobitidiot)
[December 19, 2023]
In the analytical report CRYPTO THESES 2024, the expert noted that it is difficult to name the exact levels at which the first cryptocurrency will be traded.According to him, this is influenced by many input factors such as Fed policy, trends in stock markets and the state of the US
economy.
However, in the long term, the
world is moving towards a digital era in which Bitcoin will become a digital analogue of gold, Selkis emphasized.The estimated parity with the precious metal gives the quotes of the first cryptocurrency over $600,000.
“And remember: gold has a lot of macroeconomic favorable factors, so this mark is not necessarily a ceiling.If monetary crises become severe enough, no price will be too high: 1 BTC is always 1 BTC,” the analyst emphasized.
Why Bitcoin will continue to grow in 2024
Selkis listed a number of signs that the leading cryptocurrency will continue to grow next year.
Bitcoin’s MRVR indicator is at 1.3 – values below 1 indicate an accumulation phase, and a ratio output above 3 always signals the top of the cycle has been reached.The cryptocurrency is now at the recovery stage and, despite the 2023 rally (about 150% growth), is a good investment, says the head of Messari.
Data: Messari.
The Bitcoin dominance index has also been recovering in recent months, but is still far from the levels reached during the bull runs of 2017 and 2021.Now the figure is just above 54% and, according to Selkis, will at least reach 60%.
Among the factors contributing to the growth of cryptocurrency, he cited accounting changes favorable to US investors, the emergence of new large holders of digital gold reserves and the possible approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The halving expected in April historically preceded the rally of the first cryptocurrency, the analyst recalled.
What should crypto investors pay attention to?
Most other assets, both in the crypto industry and in traditional markets, are likely to lose out to Bitcoin in terms of profitability in 2024, Selkis believes.
“DeFi has ongoing regulatory challenges that will curb growth in the near term.NFT activity has largely died.
Other promising sectors (stablecoins, gaming, decentralization of social networks, infrastructure, etc.) are more likely to grow slowly and steadily, but not suddenly and suddenly,” the analyst said.
Regarding Ethereum, Selkis noted that major technological advances in the form of The Merge update and the subsequent Shapella hard fork did not lead to significant growth in the cryptocurrency.The price of rival Solana’s token has, for example, increased sixfold since the beginning of the year.
Ethereum could also be pressured by the flow of liquidity into developing network-based second-layer solutions.
However, the expert believes that the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization will still continue to grow moderately and represents a “reliable investment.”
In recent years, many crypto projects have blocked most of the distributed tokens with varying release dates into circulation.
An increase in the supply of such assets during unfreezing could negatively affect their quotes, the analyst warned.
Data: Messari.
Regarding DeFi, Selkis noted that throughout 2023, trading volume in the segment remained almost at a plateau.The rare spikes are associated with meme coins rather than any breakthrough projects or expansion of use.
The sector, facing tightening, is unlikely to show significant growth, the analyst believes.
Selkis considers some non-financial decentralization areas like DePIN, DeSoc and DeSci to be promising.In the near future, such projects will not be able to scale up to the volume of their traditional counterparts, but even a slight increase in market share for them will mean a serious influx of funds.
For example, DePIN platforms providing cloud infrastructure now occupy 0.1% of the $5 trillion segment.An increase in demand for decentralized services as insurance to just 1% will lead to a 10-fold increase in the segment, the analyst admitted.
The situation is similar with social networks, where traditional players made a profit of $230 billion in 2023 (half came from Meta products).
Some DeSoc applications like Farcaster, friend.tech and Lens have already shown a good start.The sector can repeat the DeFi boom of three years ago, Selkis is sure.
Let us remind you that CryptoQuant analysts assumed the probability of Bitcoin rising above $50,000 at the beginning of 2024.
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