On-chain data shows Bitcoin has now been below its realized price for 163 days in this bear market; here’s how this compares with previous cycles.Bitcoin Realized Price Is Currently Valued At Around $19,900 According to CryptoQuant’s year-end dashboard release, the bear market would be over if BTC reclaims this level.To understand what the “realized price” is, the “realized cap” must be looked at first.The realized cap is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that aims to provide a sort of “real value” for the crypto.Unlike the usual market cap, which simply values each coin in circulation using the current BTC price, the realized cap prices each token at the same price it was last moved.For example, if 1 BTC was bought at $20,000, but the price has now changed to $16,000, the market cap will consider it valued at $16,000.The realized cap, however, will say its true value is $20,000.
Now, if the total realized cap of Bitcoin is divided by the total number of coins in circulation, a “realized price” is obtained.This price signifies the cost-basis of the average coin in the market (that is, the price at which investors acquired the average coin at).Here is a chart that shows the trend in the BTC realized price over the entire history of the asset: The BTC price seems to have been below this metric in recent months | Source: CryptoQuant As the above graph displays, the normal price of Bitcoin has been below the realized price for a while now.Historically, BTC has spent very little time in this region, as only the worst phases of a bear market usually pull the coin below the level.From the chart, it’s apparent that In the 2011-2012 bear market, BTC spent 158 days under the realized price.Then, in 2014-2015, the coin spent a whopping 276 days in this zone.The 2018-2019 bear saw the shortest amount of time in the region, as the price took 134 days to pull itself above the level.
Finally, Bitcoin has been trapped under the realized price for 163 days in the current cycle.This means that BTC has spent more time in this region in the current bear market than in any other before, except for 2014-2015.If the current bear is comparable to 2014-2015, then it would mean there is still more than 100 days to go before Bitcoin can exit the zone.Either way, CryptoQuant expects the crypto to reclaim this level somewhere in 2023, and it will be then that this bear may be considered to be over.
BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16,600, down 1% in the last week.BTC has declined in the last two days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com – According to new data by CryptoQuant, the upcoming Bitcoin halving could trigger a relief rally for Bitcoin.- Miner revenue declined as holders sold their BTC for a loss.Bitcoin [BTC] holders may have something to look forward to in the coming year.According to new data provided by CryptoQuant, the next Bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur in May 2024, could be a relief rally for BTC’s price.2-1/ Market bottom? – Supply in Profit & Loss A high possibility of having a decent relief rally in the crypto market is expected before the next $BTC halving.
– Delta Price The Delta Price (Delta Cap divided by the total coin supply) currently sits around 12.5k.pic.twitter.com/LP9356sQif — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 29, 2022 How many BTCs can you get for $1? Glass “halve” full Over the last few years, every Bitcoin halving was preceded by a relief rally.The UTXO (unspent transaction output) for Bitcoin also witnessed a temporary spike during the same period.UTXO is the technical term for the amount of digital currency that remains after a cryptocurrency transaction.If traders are banking on history repeating itself, then it would be safe to say that there would be a lot of interest in accumulating BTC just before the relief rally.However, the upcoming halving may not be good news for Bitcoin miners.After the Bitcoin halving, the block reward generated by miners would be considerably reduced.Despite the potential for declining revenue, the miners’ behavior did not reflect any sign of selling pressure.
According to data provided by Glassnode, miner outflow volume reached a one-year low of 475.47 BTC and continued to decline over the last few months until press time.📉 #Bitcoin $BTC Miners’ Outflow Volume (7d MA) just reached a 1-year low of 47.457 BTC Previous 1-year low of 47.612 BTC was observed on 10 January 2022 View metric:https://t.co/DvHJapToPY pic.twitter.com/9bIwg5xmA9 — glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) December 29, 2022 However, miners held on to their BTC despite declining revenue.Based on data gathered by Glassnode, BTC mining revenue decreased significantly over the past few weeks.If the revenue generated by miners continued to decline, selling pressure on miners would increase in the near future.Fortunately, declining revenue generated by miners did not affect large addresses interested in BTC.Are your BTC holdings flashing green? Check the profit calculator Bitcoin taking a loss From data provided by Glassnode, it was observed that addresses holding over 10 Bitcoin reached a two-year high of 155,711 addresses as of 29 December.📈 #Bitcoin $BTC Number of Addresses Holding 10+ Coins just reached a 2-year high of 155,171 View metric:https://t.co/0NzRiyaeFg pic.twitter.com/MNXHKdphIM — glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) December 29, 2022 Even though the number of large addresses continued to grow on the Bitcoin network, their holdings were not profitable.This was demonstrated by the king coin’s declining MVRV ratio.
A declining MVRV ratio suggested that if most BTC holders were to sell their Bitcoin, they would do so at a loss.The declining long/short difference, coupled with the spike in transaction volume in loss, suggested that a number of short-term BTC holders had already exited their positions with their portfolios bleeding.
It remains to be seen whether other long-term holders will follow suit in the coming months.That said, at the time of writing, BTC was trading at $16,566.19.
Its price fell by 0.06% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin price is struggling to clear the $17,000 resistance.BTC remains at a risk of more downsides below the $16,000 support zone before the year end.- Bitcoin is showing bearish signs below the $17,000 and $17,200 resistance levels.
– The price is trading below $16,700 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.- There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $16,610 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).- The pair could resume its decline if it stays below the $17,000 resistance zone.Bitcoin price gained pace below the $16,800 support zone.BTC even extended its decline below the $16,700 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.The price traded as low as $16,453 and is currently correcting losses.
There was a move above the $16,500 and $16,550 levels.The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $16,960 swing high to $16,453 low.
There was also a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $16,610 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.However, bitcoin price is now trading below $16,700 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the $16,650 level.The first major resistance is near the $16,700 zone and the 100 hourly SMA.
It coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $16,960 swing high to $16,453 low.Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com The key breakout zone is still near the $17,000 level.A clear move above the $17,000 resistance might start a steady increase in the near term.
The next major resistance is near $17,500, above which the price rise towards the $18,000 resistance zone.Fresh Decline in BTC? If bitcoin fails to start a recovery wave above the $16,700 resistance, it could start another decline.
An immediate support on the downside is near the $16,450 level or the recent low.
The next major support is near the $16,250 level.A clear move below the $16,250 support might spark a move towards the $16,000 level.Any more losses might send the price towards $15,500.Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now near the 50 level.Major Support Levels – $16,450, followed by $16,250.
Major Resistance Levels – $16,700, $17,000 and $17,200.Aayush Jindal Aayush is a Senior Forex, Cryptocurrencies and Financial Market Strategist with a background in IT and financial markets.He specialises in market strategies and technical analysis, and has spent over a DECADE as a financial markets contributor and observer.He possesses strong technical analytical skills and is well known for his entertaining and informative analysis of the currency, commodities, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.- BTC was in a slight upward momentum.- The king coin could break out below $16,442.38.
– A break out above the 23.6% Fib level of $16,766.50 will invalidate the bias.Bitcoin (BTC) has been stuck in the $16.92K – $16.45K range for over 10 days.The sideways structure of BTC has stalled the entire crypto market, with limited volatility and volume – a double nightmare for traders.At press time, BTC was trading at $16,587.However, the price could fall even lower based on technical indicators and on-chain metrics.Read BTC price prediction 2023-24 The support at $16442.38: will it hold? BTC rallied after the FOMC meeting and reached a high of $18.4K, up about 9%.
After that, the price correction cleared all the gains and dropped lower.
Since the $18.4K high, there have recently been four major price pullbacks.The first one settled at $16,627.07 and faced a price rejection at the 23.6% Fib level, which initiated the second phase of the correction.The second correction settled at $16,442.38, but the attempt to recover was rejected at $16,918.44.This level has since become a bearish order block and influenced the third phase of correction, which settled at the 23.6% Fib level.At press time, the fourth phase of price correction had broken below the 23.6% Fib level and could also break below $16,442.38, a previous support level.
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) was negative, indicating that the asset was sold more than it was bought, suggesting high selling pressure.In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved away from its mean and declined, indicating that buying pressure eased.Therefore, BTC could break below $16,442.38 and retest $16765, providing short-sale targets.However, a break above the 23.6% Fib level of $16,766.50 would invalidate the above bias.This would allow the bulls to target the bearish order block at $16,918.44.However, the bulls need to overcome the obstacle at $16627.07 to advance.
Long-term BTC holders suffered more losses as whale transactions dropped According to Santiment data, the number of BTC whale transactions was at its lowest level, almost as low as in December 2020.Such a metric makes it difficult for BTC prices to rise, as whale actions directly affect price trends.
Therefore, BTC holders might start 2023 on a less happy note.Furthermore, long-term holders of BTC have suffered losses throughout the year, as evidenced by the 365-day MVRV, which was deep in negative territory throughout the year.At the time of going to press, long-term holders were experiencing losses of over 30%.Are your BTC holdings flashing green? Check the Profit Calculator A further decline in whale transactions could mean more losses for the HODLers.However, an increase in the number of whale transactions could reverse prices.It is worth noting that the highest number of whale transactions in December occurred around 13 December, the day of the FOMC announcement.
If the trend repeats, we could see the next jump in whale transactions during the next FOMC meeting in late January 2023 (January 31/February 1).
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