Opinion Bruce Haring
We continue our series of predictions from the industry’s thought leaders on what may happen in the coming year.
By almost any measure, 2018 was a challenging year for the blockchain/cryptocurrency industries. Beyond the usual issues facing young businesses in hiring, marketing, technology and financing, companies were engaged in a crisis of confidence with investors, as the crypto markets lost 80 percent of their overall value from the beginning of the year.
Add to that the magic fountain of funding caused by the curtailing of initial coin offerings, increased government scrutiny and outright bans of certain activities, and the bitter battles between technology developers that caused market gyrations, and it’s amazing that any company survived such severe headwinds.
But heading into 2019, the survivors of this industry wide winter are showing faith in the underlying technology of blockchain and the continuing promise of cryptocurrency. They point out that institutional investors are still on the sidelines, and many retail backers are still not in the game in any huge way.
Add that to the continued interest of big businesses and the spirit of innovation shown by blockchain and crypto pioneers, and the story looks a lot brighter than mere numbers would suggest.
Block Tribune asked thought leaders in the industry for their takes on what may happen in the coming year.
Now through the end of the month, we’ll spotlight their thoughts on what may happen in what all hope will be a happy and prosperous 2019.
Filipe Castro, the founder and CIO of UTRUST BLOCK TRIBUNE: Where do you se e Bitcoin heading in 2019 and why? ANSWER: “ Despite the recent market performance, we see Bitcoin’s long-term use case as a cross-border store of value, asset diversification and hedge against fiat inflation holding strong. Even with bearish market sentiment, miner equipment upgrades and network “fork” destabilization events that only reduce overall ecosystem confidence, none of the underlying strengths of Bitcoin have been displaced. We believe instructional fund interest, ETFs and other financial offerings (e.
g.: Bakkt) may contribute to an increased demand for the crypto-assets in 2019 . BLOCK TRIBUNE: Have recent crypto plunges affected your outlook and/or plans for 2019 ? ANSWER: “ No, market performance did not affect UTRUST’s roadmap for 2019 . We continue to focus on building great technology for a clear use-case and business need and are actually growing our team.
As much as we would like all projects to succeed, it’s only during such necessary downtrends that value-drivers become acknowledged and persevere, while unsustainable projects naturally struggle and fade, leading to a more focused ecosystem and committed community. That said, we are confident in the long-term value of the underlying crypto-asset market as a real driver of innovation and future value. BLOCK TRIBUNE: Wh at role will stablecoins have in the market in 2019 ? ANSWER: “ In 2019 , Stablecoins as a whole will continue to be developed, with several competing models and tokens (Collateralized, Non-collateralized, Algorithmic). Aside from the possible exception of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which are in essence state-backed stablecoins, we believe Stablecoins will not have a significant ecosystem impact on the short-term. Contrary to widespread belief, stablecoins do not have its price fixed at one specific fiat-denominated value and do suffer from volatility, albeit to a lesser degree. Moreover, they do come with a various set of trade-offs (centralization, supply & demand constraints, inflation, variable monetary policy complexity or lack of robustness). Stablecoins are part of the future of crypto=assets, and indeed, have a place in the ecosystem. They will not replace current volatile crypto-assets (as they have their place in the crypto-economy as investment vehicles and platform-specific utility), but rather provide a low-volatility complement for specific scenarios such as intermediary fiat clearance and trading (fiat bridge) scenarios for businesses.
BLOCK TRIBUNE: Which sectors – energy, e-commerce, gambling – do you think will have the biggest impact in the blockchain industry in 2019 ? (Feel free to choose any other sectors) ANSWER: “ We foresee e-commerce payments and lending as two of the key-sectors where blockchain industry will have the most significant impact in 2019 and onwards. These are two fields that have been waiting for the technology to mature for any degree of post-pilot adoption. Both provide clear industry use-cases where blockchain and cryptocurrencies can provide tangible cost-savings, speed or efficiency gains versus current processes, providing clear avenues to drive growth and revenues. Many analysts also share these predicaments, with articles & market studies by Forbes , CBinsights and PWC and others outlining some of these macro-trends BLOCK TRIBUNE: What e vent would you like to see happen in 2019 ? ANSWER: “ There are quite a few events we would like to see in 2019 .
One that we believe will significantly validate this industry as a whole will be approval of the first Bitcoin exchange-traded-fund (VanEck or others) by the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Q1 2019 . Although such approval may or may not impact the price of BTC on the short-term, it will certainly initiate a positive cascade of events that will widen the appeal of crypto-assets as an investable asset class.” BLOCK TRIBUNE: Is the ICO dead as an ef fective fundraiser? Why or why not? ANSWER: “ No, ICO’ s will still exist in the future, alongside other fundraising options for innovative start-ups. However, as any novel fundraiser mechanism, they are evolving. For projects, the bar will also be much higher, with more mature, savvy institutional investors securitizing the project, alongside regulatory authorities.
A transformation towards value accrual instead of price expectations, with more lean projects focused on sustainable use-cases and revenue.
We will see a shift towards institutional investors, with some possibly involving mixed token-equity deals. Conversely, no longer we will have a frenzy of projects vying for attention and overspending on non-core business areas, leading to less competition and a higher chance of success and possible to new records on absolute values raised if market conditions prove favorable.”
Gee Chuang, the co-founder and CEO of Ink Protocol , BLOCK TRIBUNE: Where do you see Bitcoin heading in 2019 and why? ANSWER: Bitcoin will continue to solidify its dominance as the top cryptocurrency by market cap and continue to establish itself as primarily a store of value and, secondarily, a medium of exchange. In terms of market cap, I expect that we will see the lows in the first half of 2019 and hopefully start seeing some recovery from there once the new speculators and negative sentiment starts shifting.
People need to see that Bitcoin’s killer app is in being a store of value and that it doesn’t necessarily require additional adoption from things like apps or e-commerce sites. BLOCK TRIBUNE: Have recent crypto plunges affected your outlook and/or plans for 2019 ? ANSWER: Our plans have remained mostly the same, although it has definitely affected our outlook and timelines. It has become clear that DApp and cryptocurrency adoption is still in its infancy. We have seen it first hand with our Ink Pay DApp, which is much harder to use than our centralized Listia marketplace. Both marketplaces run using the same cryptocurrency, but the centralized one is growing much faster due to ease of use. We are now more focused than ever on consumer adoption by building a much more user-friendly version of our apps that doesn’t require things like DApp browsers, crypto wallets and smart contract knowledge. BLOCK TRIBUNE: What role will stablecoins have in the market in 2019 ? ANSWER: Stablecoins are going to play a huge role in the market in 2019 . We are already seeing massive adoption for coins like Dai and USDC.
They are an ideal way to pay for things within decentralized marketplaces and exchanges.
I also believe that lending and financial applications based on stablecoins will start to explode in 2019 .
They have already been growing extremely quickly just in the last couple months. BLOCK TRIBUNE: Which sectors – energy, e-commerce, gambling – do you think will have the biggest impact in the blockchain industry in 2019 ? (Feel free to choose any other sectors) ANSWER: I think the e-commerce and gaming industries will have the biggest impacts on the blockchain industry in 2019 . I believe that these will be the most obvious killer apps that emerge from all the investment in blockchain tech throughout 2018. Games will utilize crypto collectibles such as ERC721 NFTs to provide gamers with a new experience around collecting and using in-game assets. Similarly, I believe e-commerce sites and specifically marketplaces will start to use blockchain technology to provide faster, cheaper payments transactions, as well as safer. At Ink Protocol, we are building a global decentralized marketplace platform directly on top of Ethereum that will help users buy and sell in a trustworthy way.
2019 will be the year that these types of applications become usable by regular consumers, and not just blockchain enthusiasts. BLOCK TRIBUNE: What event would you like to see happen in 2019 ? ANSWER: I would like to see a handful of killer apps emerge in 2019 . Most likely, this will be a single game that breaks out into the mainstream, much like Fortnite did in 2018. But if it fully leverages blockchain tech, we will suddenly have millions of new mainstream users. Outside of gaming, I would like to see the growth of fully decentralized p2p marketplaces, that allow buyers and sellers all over the world to transact safely without a central authority taking high transaction fees. BLOCK TRIBUNE: Is the ICO dead as an effective fundraiser? Why or why not? ANSWER: I think the ICO as we knew it in 2017 and 2018 will be gone in 2019 . However, that just means the process will continue to improve to protect people from scams and fraud.
I believe blockchain projects will continue to find ways to grow and reach a massive user base even if it is no longer through an ICO distribution.
With institutional investors moving in, we may see fundraising start to look more like traditional VC as well..
