The research released Wednesday shows the change is largely being driven by a drop in the number of people moving to California from other parts of the U.S.and is most acute in the high-cost San Francisco Bay Area.
The researchers examined anonymized credit bureau data and found that the downward trend in net domestic migration has been accelerated by a 38% decrease in the number of new arrivals between March 2020 and September of this year.The number of new arrivals declined in all of the state’s 58 counties.
“Entrances have been really stable over time, but they did dip pretty substantially since the pandemic,” said Natalie Holmes, a UC Berkeley doctoral student and one of the authors of the report from the nonpartisan California Policy Lab.
Meanwhile, the number of Californians leaving has increased by 12%, a return to pre-pandemic trends.In total, 150,000 more people on average left California than entered in the third quarter of 2021, compared with 60,000 net exits in the first three months of 2020.
The actual volume of the flows is likely even bigger, Ms.Holmes said, since the analysis relies on credit data and is less representative of younger and lower-income residents.
The report didn’t explore why fewer people are coming to the state than before.
Previous research has suggested housing costs and affordability are key factors.
Many Americans re-evaluated where to live during the pandemic as businesses closed and larger numbers of people were able to work remotely.
An analysis published in May by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California showed that people who move to California tend to have higher incomes and higher education levels than those who move out.
California has been losing more people to other states than it gains for years, census data and state estimates show.Last year, its population decreased for the first time in recorded history.In another first, California will lose a congressional seat in the once-a-decade redistricting process now under way.
The shift is especially large in and around San Francisco.The number of new arrivals to the Bay Area plummeted 45% between March 2020 and September 2021, while exits increased by 21%.
Between 2016 and the first quarter of 2020, the three Bay Area counties of San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara were the only ones statewide to see more people move in from other states than leave.But that trend reversed during the pandemic, with all three losing population through domestic migration.
The median sale price for existing single-family homes in the Bay Area was $1,275,000 in October according to data from the California Association of Realtors, one of the highest in the nation.
Most Californians who move in any given year remain in-state, data show.A previous Wall Street Journal analysis of postal service change-of-address data found that the pandemic increased the flow of residents from the state’s coastal counties to cheaper inland areas by nearly 50%.
The Policy Lab report found an increasing share of Californians who move are choosing to go out of state.More than one in five California movers left the state entirely in the third quarter of 2021, up from 16.3% in 2016.
The new report doesn’t take into account international immigration, which has historically helped stem the state’s population losses from migration.
However, estimates from the U.S.Census Bureau suggest those numbers are also on a downward trend.
Related Video As the pandemic changes how — and where — professionals work, some smaller cities and regions are offering hefty relocation incentives to attract remote workers to help jumpstart their local economies.
WSJ met one family who accepted an offer to make a new home in the Ozarks.Photo: Craig Kauffman for the Wall Street Journal —Paul Overberg contributed to this article.
A Changed America A look at the lasting demographic, social and economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
POPULATION Population Growth Grinds to a Halt INTERACTIVE Here’s Where People Moved MOVING Covid Superpowered Relocations REGULATIONS Covid Helped Ease Local Regulations RETIREMENT Covid-19 Pushed Many Americans to Retire.The Economy Needs Them Back.GROWTH New Life and Work Choices Revitalize Exurbs, Bringing New Strains WORSHIP Churches Changed During the Pandemic and Many Aren’t Going Back EXODUS Californians Flee the Coast to Inland Cities in a Mass Pandemic-Era Exodus Copyright ©2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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