Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) token fell more than 7.5% in its Bitcoin (BTC) pair in 2023.But ETH/BTC could entirely erase its losses since the beginning of the year (YTD) in April, because the long-awaited hard fork of Ethereum in Shanghai is just days away.
The upgrade is scheduled for April 12, allowing Ethereum stakingrs to withdraw around 1.1 billion ETH in rewards, worth over $2 billion as of April 8.
ETH Price Suffers Key Technical Rebound
Many experts view the hard fork as bullish for Ether in the long term.For example, the Shanghai buzz has helped Ether outperform Bitcoin in April so far.
As a result, the ETH/BTC pair has risen around 4.75% since the beginning of the month to reach 0.066 BTC on April 8, a rebound of almost 8% since March 20.
The rebound was widely expected, especially as ETH/BTC fell to its historical ascending trendline support.Now the bullish move raises the outlook for an extended bullish retracement towards its descending trendline resistance, marked as a “sell zone” in the chart below.
The fractal-based outlook puts Ether on the target of 0.075 BTC by June, up 10% from current price levels.Meanwhile, the pair’s upside target for April appears to be its 50-3D Exponential Moving Average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near 0.069 BTC.
Conversely, a decisive close below the 200-3D EMA (the blue wave) near 0.066 BTC, coinciding with the support/resistance level near 0.067 BTC, risks delaying or – in the worst case – invalidating the bullish retracement pattern.
This bearish argument echoes independent market analyst CrediBULL Crypto expecting heavy selling pressure near the 0.067 BTC resistance level that would lead to a 50% decline in 2023.
Ethereum versus dollar outlook
The ETH/USD pair has risen over 50% in 2023, mostly due to similar uptrends elsewhere in the crypto market.
The weakening dollar, falling US Treasury yields, and expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot on interest rate hikes contributed to the broad-based rise in cryptocurrencies in the first quarter.
These catalysts will likely remain in the spotlight until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May.
Shanghai brings the first shoots of
[#AltcoinSeason]? [$ETH]hit an 8-month high as we approach a week before the Shanghai fork update at 22:27:35 UTC on the 12th (Epoch #620.9536)
The rally was mostly a Fed/USD rate story, which allowed BTC to lead the way.…
[pic.twitter.com/dI0bpywR16]
— Rich Rosenblum (@Rich_GSR)
[April 4, 2023]
As a result, Ether may maintain its yearly gains in April, consolidating in the $1,800-2,000 range until the Fed’s decision.
Related: 3 Key Ethereum Price Metrics Cast Doubt on the Strength of ETH’s Recent Rally
Additionally, a decisive breakout from current levels could lead to extended gains with a Q2 ETH price target above $3,000.
On the other hand, the bears will attempt to drive the price down for a close below $1,800 with the lower triangle trendline near $1,600 as a downside target.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations.
Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision..
