MacroSlate Weekly: US economic indicators point towards contraction as unemployment stays at historic lows MacroSlate Weekly: US economic indicators point towards contraction as unemployment stays at historic lows James Van Straten · 5 hours ago · 4 min read Markets now see a 69% chance of another .25 rate hike at the May FOMC meeting 4 min read Updated: April 7, 2023 at 10:54 pm Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate Ad GFC vs.2023 It seems contraction in the U.S.economy is starting to appear.However, a recession is not scheduled for the time being.Comparing previous eras and recessions might fit human psychology, but it will undoubtedly be different.But most likely, the Federal Reserve will continue to hike rates until something materially breaks.We have had a banking crisis, which is fundamentally different from 2008.In 2008, we had mortgage defaults and saw a knock-on effect with house prices falling drastically.
At the same time, banks had deep losses on loans on their balance sheets.SVB was fundamentally different as depositors panicked about severe unrealized losses on their treasury portfolio.OPEC + To start the week, we had OPEC + announcement of cutting over 1m barrels/day starting next month, while 2m barrels/day are being cut from October.CryptoSlate analyzed the repercussions of these cuts; not only is this pure signal of demand collapsing.
It also left the Biden administration in trouble after drawing down on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve while failing to build on the reserves when prices were surpassed.Crude Oil WTI (NYM $/bbl) closed the week at $80/ barrel while it was as low as $67, with some analysts expecting triple digits.U.S.manufacturing slumps The March ISM manufacturing survey continued its decline, staying within the contraction zone of 46.3, undershooting expectations.In addition, JOLTS data printed 9.93 million vs.the 10.5 million expected.
This was the smallest print since April 2021.While every part of ISM Services PMI also continued to drop.
New orders are down to 52.2 from 62.6.Unemployment at record lows Staggeringly, unemployment dropped to 3.5% from 3.6%.At the same time, the U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report showed 236,000 nonfarm jobs added for March.
Economists expected 239,000 jobs.As a result, we now see a 69% chance of another .25 rate hike at the May FOMC.This would put the federal funds rate over 5%.Fed balance sheet update Thursday afternoon clock watch of the fed balance sheet is now becoming a main event.The fed balance sheet fell by $74 billion this week, roughly reduced by $100 billion in the past two weeks.The fed balance sheet is now shrinking faster than before the SVB collapse.
This shows fewer banks and less distressed assets are needed to be supported by the Fed.In addition, BTFP loans rose to $79 billion from $64.4 billion as the Fed discount window usage dropped to $69.7 billion from $88.2 billion.It’s safe to say this was not a round of quantitative easing but short-term emergency loans that will be paid back.But the key issues here are quantitative tightening and liquidity being drained from the system.We have witnessed the fastest tightening cycle in history; the money supply measured by M2 has fallen 2.5% since last year, the sharpest deterioration since the great depression in 1929.
Even small contractions in the money supply can cause big economic problems and lead to bank runs.
You would assume banks will start to cut back lending and hold more cash on hand, which will potentially cause a credit crunch.No doubt lending standards will tighten.Bitcoin vs.M2 In the short term, it is very hard to give definitive answers about a credit crunch, a recession, and if Bitcoin will exceed a certain price target.But we champion Bitcoin because it’s an asset that allows you to ignore all the macro uncertainty and geo-political games and focus on the bigger task at hand.An asset with no counter-party risk doesn’t suffer from the contagion potential of TradFi assets.
The long game is money supply will continue to expand; the balance sheet will expand, inevitably inflating all our assets.CryptoSlate analyzed major assets vs.M2 money supply, and it’s clear to see one winner in this game.The illusion of money printing makes you think you are getting wealthier; however, in real terms, you are not even staying afloat.Bitcoin remains the number one asset to keep you ahead of the devaluation of the currency.ada Biggest Movers: ADA Extends Gains, As SOL Consolidates On Saturday Cardano rose for a second straight session to start the weekend, as the token continued to move away from a key price floor.
Cryptocurrency markets were marginally higher in today’s session, with the global market up 0.56% as of writing.Solana continued to consolidate on Saturday.Cardano (ADA) Cardano (ADA) rose for a second consecutive session, as the token moved away from a recent support point.Following a low of $0.3783 on Friday, ADA/USD jumped to an intraday peak at $0.3902 to start the weekend.As a result of the move, cardano moved further away from a recent floor at $0.3775, following a failed breakout attempt.From the chart, it appears that bulls rejected the breakout after the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) bounced from a floor at 55.00.At the time of writing, the index is tracking at 56.96, with a ceiling at 60.00 a potential target for traders.Should they reach this destination, there is a good chance that ADA will be trading above $0.4000.
Solana (SOL) After a volatile week of trading, solana (SOL) entered the weekend marginally higher, however price uncertainty was also high.SOL/USD reached a top at $20.71 to start the weekend, a day after sitting at a low of $20.33.Saturday’s activity sees solana continue to hover close to a long-term floor at $20.15, and this comes following a crossover of moving averages (MA).The 10-day (red) MA moved below its 25-day (blue) counterpart earlier in the week, however was unable to extend its distance from this trendline.This comes as the 14-day RSI remains close to a point of support of its own, at the 46.00 mark.Until a breakout of this floor occurs, or there is a move above resistance, it is likely that SOL will continue to trend sideways.Register your email here to get weekly price analysis updates sent to your inbox: Tags in this story Do you expect solana to rally this weekend? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.Eliman Dambell Eliman was previously a director of a London-based brokerage, whilst also an online trading educator.
Currently, he commentates on various asset classes, including Crypto, Stocks and FX, whilst also a startup founder.Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only.It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies.Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice.
Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.Analysis Bitcoin, Ethereum Technical Analysis: BTC Back Above $28,000 On Easter Weekend Bitcoin was back above $28,000 on Saturday, as markets continued to react to the latest nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report.Figures released on Friday showed that 236,000 jobs were added to the U.S.economy last month.
Ethereum was also back in the green to start the weekend.Bitcoin Bitcoin (BTC) surged back above the $28,000 level on Saturday, as markets continued to react to the latest NFP report.Payrolls came in at 236,000, which was marginally lower than the 240,000 sum many were anticipating.
BTC/USD rose to an intraday high of $28,159.86 earlier in today’s session, less than 24 hours after trading at a low of $27,824.15.
Looking at the chart, it appears that the increase in price comes as the relative strength index (RSI) bounced from its floor at 58.00 As of writing, the index is tracking at 59.07, which has helped delay an inevitable downwards cross with the 10-day (red) moving average and its 25-day (blue) counterpart.
BTC is trading at $28,024.28 at the time of writing.Ethereum Ethereum (ETH) started today’s session in the green, as prices attempted to move back towards the $1,900 level.Following a low of $1,845.99 on Friday, ETH/USD climbed to a peak of $1,879.11 to start the weekend.
The move saw the world’s second largest cryptocurrency snap a two-day losing streak, after staying above a floor at $1,830.Despite the slight increase in price, ethereum’s price strength remains below a key support point at 61.00.As of writing, the 14-day RSI is tracking at 60.42, and should a breakout occur, there will be a greater chance of price moving above $1,900.Register your email here to get weekly price analysis updates sent to your inbox: Tags in this story Will ethereum continue to consolidate this weekend? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.Eliman Dambell Eliman was previously a director of a London-based brokerage, whilst also an online trading educator.Currently, he commentates on various asset classes, including Crypto, Stocks and FX, whilst also a startup founder.Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only.It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies.
Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice.Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.Analysis Biggest Movers: DOGE Down 8% As Twitter Removes Logo Dogecoin was once again in the red on Friday, as Twitter finally removed the doge icon as its logo.The meme coin raced to a four-month high earlier in the week, after the social media giant unexpectedly added a cartoon image of doge on its website.
Overall, crypto markets were mostly lower, with xrp a notable exception.Dogecoin (DOGE) Dogecoin (DOGE) fell for a fourth consecutive session on Friday, as Twitter finally removed the doge icon as its logo.DOGE/USD surged to a high of $0.1048 on Tuesday, however as sentiment shifted, the meme coin fell to a low of $0.08185 earlier today.Bears appear to be pushing doge towards a long-term floor at $0.0780, with prices down by nearly 9% today.Looking at the chart, the latest drop in price coincided with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) falling below support at 55.00.Currently, price strength is tracking at the 52.85 mark, with a lower floor at 50.00 a possible target for sellers.
Despite the recent downward trend, the 10-day (red) moving average continues to trend higher.XRP Despite the cryptocurrency market cap trading mostly lower on Friday, XRP, formerly ripple, was a notable exception.
Following a low of $0.4968 the day prior, XRP/USD moved to a peak at $0.5129 earlier today.As a result of the move, bulls pushed the token away from a recent support point at the $0.4950 mark.This comes as the RSI also moved away from a floor of its own at 59.00.It is currently tracking at 61.17.Should this momentum continue into the Easter weekend, the next visible ceiling will be at the 65.00 mark.
If this point is reached, there is a good chance that XRP will be trading above $0.5200.Register your email here to get weekly price analysis updates sent to your inbox: Tags in this story Do you expect xrp to move above $0.5200 this weekend? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.Eliman Dambell Eliman was previously a director of a London-based brokerage, whilst also an online trading educator.
Currently, he commentates on various asset classes, including Crypto, Stocks and FX, whilst also a startup founder.Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only.It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies.Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice.
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