“The deepest craving of human nature is the need to be appreciated.” — William James
“Coming from the grow-at-all-costs for several years to the current grow-reasonably-efficient times, making the leap to EBITDA multiples isn’t as dramatic, but it’s still problematic with so many software companies burning cash.”
https://davidcummings.org/2023/02/04/thinking-ebitda-multiples-for-saas-at-scale
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Subscribe “My base case is Russia launches a new offensive this month, and Ukraine exploits that to its advantage – trying to split Russian forces, perhaps a thrust South thru Zaporizhiya to cut the land corridor to Crimea for Russia.
I do think we are reaching a decisive moment in this conflict though.I think the next couple of months will be critical in defining this war.This latter outcome could still have global market impact though as markets fret about a descent into a scenario where the West and NATO are increasingly brought into this conflict by Russia’s continuous aggression.”
@tashecon blog Decisive battles are looming in Ukraine A major geopolitical risk outfit were arguing this week that another wave of Russian escalation thru asymmetric channels (cyber, et al attacks on the West) could be looming and this could well have impact on global markets.I don’t dispute that Russia has the ability to disrupt global markets by using the asymmetric channel but I am just not sure as to … Read more 23 days ago · 7 likes · 1 comment · Timothy Ash “One flaw in Zeihan’s worldview is that he ignores culture, technology, and institutions.
Zeihan has no model for AI or crypto or biotech or any fundamentally altering technology.Similarly, when Zeihan talks about demographics he only talks about quantity, he doesn’t talk about quality.
This doesn’t factor into account drug addiction, homelessness, fatherlessness, and other illnesses that can plague a population.In the same way a 12 person team like Instagram can outcompete a thousand-person company like Kodak, it doesn’t make sense to evaluate populations merely on a quantitative basis.
Similarly, geographic determinism alone can’t explain a country’s success: Japan is on rocks, Singapore has no natural resources, Israel is in a desert, and still they all kick ass relative to countries with lots of “young people” and “natural resources”.If Zeihan were right that natural resources and birth rates were all that mattered, Venezuela and Iraq and Brazil would be major world powers.
And yet they aren’t.
Similarly, America’s geography is not only luck, it’s because of the Monroe Doctrine and many other efforts to keep Latin America a backwater.Or in other words, the product of culture, technology, and institutions.”
Erik Torenberg Our Deglobalized Future Note: With my friend Nathan Labenz, I launched a new podcast all about AI called the Cognitive Revolution.Please download and, if you like it, leave a review.Our first episode with Suhail Doshi about AI art and where it’s going… Read more 22 days ago · 20 likes · 4 comments · Erik Torenberg “The tools that Yohei is building for himself are a prime early example of this dynamic in action.
He told me that, as a venture capitalist, “Time is the number one blocker.If you can unlock time, you’re instantly better at your job.”
That’s exactly what AI is enabling him to do.What might not have been possible for a small VC firm a few years ago might be eminently possible in a year or two if these tools continue to develop.
To be sure, the bots he’s building are early prototypes.They require more work and polish to function perfectly.But they’re already allowing him to spend less time on tasks that he doesn’t want to do—and more on the ones that he’s uniquely good at: sourcing deals and deciding on investments.”
https://every.to/chain-of-thought/this-vc-is-slowly-automating-their-job
“You have a duty to the blood.To not go silently into the night.
To live the American Warrior Ethos.The ethos that won’t let itself be tread upon by tyrants, even if they are our own.
It ain’t so much that we dislike kings — we dislike tyrants.We get behind the right type of man who honored what’s in the blood.Washington would have been made king if he had wanted it.
Take this to heart.If you don’t own a weapon, change that.
If you aren’t strong and fit, change that.The Greek hoplite spent the amount it takes to buy a car to provision himself with armor and weapons.
What should the modern hoplite equip himself with? Guns, armor, and night vision seem to be the top three.Don’t forget also to have friends who will fight at your side.
It’s important to train.To master your craft as a warrior.This world we live in sets you up for failure.”
Resavager Sons of the Frontier “I know that few of you who read my words have ever thought about your ancestors this way.It has not occurred to you that your ancestors were survivors and that the survival itself sometimes involved savage decisions, a kind of wanton brutality which civilized humankind works very hard to suppress.
What price will you pay for that suppression? Will you accept your own extinction?” Frank Herbert from God Emperor of Dune… Read more 25 days ago · 18 likes · 5 comments · Barbaric Disciple An excellent set of predictions for Silicon Valley & tech in 2023.Worth a read.
“Silicon Valley thrives again in 2024.While I believe 2023 will be a tough, character-building year for startups, we must remember that this is simply another cycle of creation and destruction in Silicon Valley.The bad news is that companies will be increasingly faced with difficult, sometimes existential, decisions.
The good news for me (at least) is that demand for gray hair seems to go up when the markets go down.The good news for everyone is that this is simply a cycle, one from which we shall emerge, and when we do so, the world we emerge into will be more rational and fundamentals-focused.”
https://kellblog.com/2023/02/02/kellblog-predictions-for-2023
China and the CCP is the enemy of the west.No way around that fact.
“So Cold War 2 is a reality, and we’re all living in it right now.
If history is any guide, expect at least the next three decades to be defined by mutual U.S.-China distrust and tensions rather than re-engagement or cooperation against shared challenges.
China’s leaders may wish they could take a mulligan and reset things to the trajectory of 2015 or 2017, but eventually they will realize that they can’t, and their tone will likely turn frosty again.
Meanwhile, Americans will likely continue to see events like the Spy Balloon in a more negative, threatening light than they would have in earlier decades.”
Noahpinion You are now living through Cold War 2 The early days of the original Cold War included the launch of Sputnik in 1957 and the shooting down of a U-2 spy plane in 1960.Perhaps people will remember the Spy Balloon of 2023 as a similar moment in the early days of Cold War 2.For those who weren’t watching the news over the last couple of days, China sent a spy balloon over the U.S.The Chinese… Read more 21 days ago · 263 likes · 148 comments · Noah Smith Brave men here doing important work.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/04/ukraine-special-forces-russia-border
Listening to this interview is an excellent school on seed VC investing.
“Look, I think investing is really simple.Buy cheap assets that are inflecting positively.That’s all you need to know.
Everything else is superfluous, an own-goal; often designed to further the marketing efforts of your fund or convince yourself that you can out-think the market.
Far too often, investors dive into the minutiae around them and lose sight of their overriding goal; buy cheap assets that are inflecting positively.
I wish that more investors could be honest about how best to run a portfolio.In my opinion, you hoard liquidity, wait until it’s obvious and then pounce.Everyone knows this is how it works, everyone worships Buffett for having done it, yet few investors seem capable of following such a simple script.
Then again, if this game were easy, there wouldn’t be opportunities.When today’s buyers get pressed against the wall, that’s when I want to buy.Until then, I’m waiting until it’s obvious.
In summary, there’s nothing wrong with saying, “I just don’t know.”
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2023/02/01/i-just-dont-know
This is a must watch.A Masterclass in tech investing with VC legend Bill Gurley.
And the AI race is on.Well it’s been on for a while but these are the visible signs things are happening now.
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/google-invests-300m-in-chatgpt-rival-6154898
“However, as we have seen from the first day of this invasion, Putin wanting battlefield victories and Putin getting battlefield victories are two very different things.
The courage, resilience and ingenuity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (supported with western weapons and munitions) has seen to that.
Despite the influx of tens of thousands of mobilised troops, it is highly likely that there will again be a gap between Putin’s expectations for the 2023 offensive operations of the Russian military in Ukraine, and their capacity to actually deliver their results.”
Futura Doctrina Divining Russia’s Main Effort in 2023 The last few weeks have seen increased speculation about the timing and size of potential 2023 Russian offensives in Ukraine.That the Russians will attempt them is almost a given.They have been slowly assembling all the pieces for their 2023 offensives since late last year.They have provided the political r… Read more 20 days ago · 66 likes · 5 comments · Mick Ryan, AM “If you believe you are subject to a Psy-Op one of the best thing you can do is relax.Take a break from the stress of the world enjoy your favourite hobby, a good book, exercise and take in nature.
If someone or something is trying to put stress on your mind do the opposite.
Recharge constructively so you are not dependent on anything or anyone.Take care of yourself for doing so is in of itself an act of rebellion.
Remedy the stress if possible, preferably at the root cause.”
https://medium.com/@Kairon/defending-yourself-against-psychological-operations-dcc116c6cf0b
Lots of knowledge bombs here.It is a good discussion to understand the world we are in.Many folks really are stuck in the matrix.
“The story of the seemingly innocuous balloons is also taking place against the backdrop of substantial military positioning in the Pacific between the US and China.I flew over the Pacific twice this week from LA to Hawaii, Hawaii to San Fran and San Fran to Seoul.
It seems to calm and peaceful, but the reality is that there is a massive build-up of military power underway by China and by the US.
This is The Invisible War that we occasionally get brief glimpses of.China’s Sky Lanterns illuminated this fact.”
Dr.Pippa’s Pen & Podcast Sky Lanterns, Fu-Go Wind Ships, Drones, Balloon Bombs and the Markets The Chinese balloons over the US reveal many things.1.
We are already at war.But the US authorities don’t want to say this because social media will create hysteria.China knows this.The purpose of the balloons may not be spying or payload delivery but about the kind of spectacle that creates doubt amongst Americans about their own Government.Thi… Read more 20 days ago · 78 likes · 16 comments · Dr Pippa Web 3 could be the way forward for Japan.
“Japan has been struggling with how to regain the tech primacy it enjoyed in the later decades of the 20th century, when it was widely seen as the world’s most high-tech society.As the world copes with a new wave of digital technologies, Kishida sees a fresh opening for Japan to reassert itself.”
Words have power.
This is well worth reading.For startups and for life.
https://deepgreencrystals.com/2021/12/09/9-everyday-words-that-fck-up-your-life/
Lots of breaking points in de-globalization process.
This is an in-depth presentation from Zeihan.
Interesting conspiracy theory: just because we can does not mean we did.Guess we will never know.
Seymour Hersh How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline The U.S.Navy’s Diving and Salvage Center can be found in a location as obscure as its name—down what was once a country lane in rural Panama City, a now-booming resort city in the southwestern panhandle of Florida, 70 miles south of the Alabama border.The center’s complex is as nondescript as its location—a drab concrete post-World War II structure th… Read more 18 days ago · 7,735 likes · Seymour Hersh “People love any technology that enables laziness.I remember when Starbucks went public I called a friend of mine who was an investment banker and asked if I should buy it.
He said, “They’re selling a legal addictive drug that you pay like 20 times what it costs to make at home because it’s convenient…”
Though you can make coffee at home that is cheaper, people can pick it up via drive-thru and are literally addicted to it.
It’s the same with Amazon, PayPal, or Docusign.
Any company which enables people to be lazy can potentially be a phenomenal business.”
An excellent episode on the edge of the internet.NIA.
History does seem to repeat itself.
https://tomtunguz.com/vc-withering-and-dying/
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Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 12th, 2023 hardfork.substack.com
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