“Everything you can imagine is real.”―Pablo Picasso
“There is no sudden turn-around or change.This is still the same Xi, and the policy is one of hypothesis “readjustment” or “rectification”.
In order to make the economy “harmoniously” grow in the long term, they have to accept short-term slow-downs and policy changes.To simple observers, they look like zig-zags; to the perceptive eye, they look like a straight line.”
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Subscribe Global Inequality and More 3.0 Not a new Xi In today’s Financial Times Ruchir Sharma has a very nice article about the recent readjustments in China’s policies: discontinuation of zero-covid restrictions, stronger support for globalization, and a nod toward the private sector.As the title (“The Xi nobody saw coming”) says, Sharma sees them as a sudden and unexpected volte-face of Xi.Instead of… Read more a month ago · 60 likes · 20 comments · Branko Milanovic I’ve always loved Bulgaria.Even more so now.Good people overcoming the toxic Russian influence there.
https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-volodymyr-zelenskyy-kiril-petkov-poorest-country-eu-ukraine
Hayes Valley is a great hood.
“Cerebral Valley is ultimately a term coined by the founders and hackers behind the newest trends in generative tech—but it might just result in a rebranding moment and lifestyle shift for the tech world, an industry that once prided itself on its cushy work-life balance.
And the growing popularity of a more residential, neighborhoody work-life model might have broader ramifications on San Francisco, a city that has historically struggled with tech-centered gentrification and currently has millions of square feet of office space sitting empty in Downtown SF.
Nonetheless, the rise of these hacker homes feels, in many ways, like a return to tech’s Wild West era, when scrappy startups sought to change the world from the garage of a Palo Alto home—or in this case, an Alamo Square Victorian.”
https://sfstandard.com/technology/what-is-cerebral-valley-san-franciscos-nerdiest-new-neighborhood
This is an incredible interview with a former CIA operative.A wide ranging and great discussion: on geopolitics, the media, his time in the service, politics in America.
Worth a watch.
This is an inspiring story.Smart kid here.
This is an excellent discussion on geopolitics and America’s place here & how power drives everything.Lessons from history.
This is really inspiring.Angels do exist on earth it seems.
https://news.yahoo.com/farmer-died-town-learned-secretly-181429538.html
“These days, it’s a rare thing to see Nims face defeat.
Over the past four years, the former Nepalese special forces soldier has electrified the climbing world and the wider culture beyond.He became mega-famous in 2019 by scaling all 14 of the world’s 8,000-meter peaks in just six months and six days.
After that inventive feat, his notoriety was multiplied by the releases of his book, Beyond Possible, and Netflix movie, 14 Peaks, both of which helped confer a level of power on Nims that climbers seldom achieve.
Now he’s deciding how to wield that influence, both for himself and his Sherpa compatriots.
He’s aimed at nothing less than remaking the Himalayan guiding industry in his image—and along the way is raising questions about what it means to be a mountaineer in the age of the influencer.
It’s a lot.Nims is a lot.But his hustle and bravado are precisely the things that have allowed him to break into the mainstream from Nepal’s deep bench of climbing talent.I’ve covered mountaineering and Sherpa culture on and off for more than a decade, and while there have always been insanely strong climbers with roots in Nepal, nobody has ever amassed the mind share, as the marketers say, that Nims has.
In the process he’s gathered a legion of devotees and plenty of critics, all of them hoping to cement his reputation as either a generational talent among high-altitude mountaineers or else an egotistical self-promoter flying perilously close to the sun.”
https://www.gq.com/story/nims-purja-profile
This was fun and yes, Davos is a complete grift.F–k the WEF & Klaus Schwab.
“Peak AI indicators abound.VC thought pieces and tweetstorms have reached all-time highs.Fair-weather fans from the crypto boom have migrated.
MBAs may soon outnumber nerds.”
luttig’s learnings Is AI the new crypto? The nuclear winter techpocalypse arrived: software, SPACs, fintech, and crypto all entered a deep freeze.AI may be the only sector wearing a parka.Peak AI indicators abound.VC thought pieces and tweetstorms have reached all-time highs.Fair-weather fans from the crypto boom have… Read more a month ago · 57 likes · 2 comments · John Luttig A great model for young (and old) men.
“A bias for action and a thoughtful mind need not be incompatible.
Here are thirteen men who became war heroes, super spies, and more – while also achieving literary greatness.”
Old Books Club 13 writers who lived like action heroes A bias for action and a thoughtful mind need not be incompatible.Here are thirteen men who became war heroes, super spies, and more – while also achieving literary greatness.(Complete list of the books with Amazon links is at the end) 1.
Ian Fleming… Read more a month ago · 7 likes · Jash Dholani Fascinating international business man here: Adolf Lundin.
Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) @Fritz844 What I learnt from the biography of Adolf Lundin.He was the founder of the Lundin group of companies (IPCO, Africa Oil, Lundin Gold, Lucara Diamond, Bluestone Resources, etc.) Thanks for recommending the book to me @TereaAfrica007
4:26 AM ∙ Jan 21, 2023 80 Likes 10 Retweets “As we’ve written about before, power is a psychological intoxicant.
Any system that guarantees individuals power based on their bloodline is bound to fail — because eventually, you’re going to get a bad king/queen/prince/actress.We’re witnessing this in real time.Monarchies passed their expiration date a century ago.
The grace of Queen Elizabeth was royalty’s (formidable) last line of defense.What Marx said about capitalism, that a system based on self-interest would collapse under its weight, is playing out in the Houses of Windsor and Soho.
Distraction
Last week’s news about the monarchy reminds us how irrelevant they’ve become.France realized this centuries ago and separated its monarchs from their head(s), while the U.K.
(more elegantly) subordinated the monarchy into a PR function.As the weapon of mass distraction that is H&M captures our gaze, more meaningful things are happening in Britain.Specifically, a government led by the democratically elected son of Indian immigrants has made an important decision.”
https://www.profgalloway.com/porn-and-tanks
“While US and other Western officials don’t always have perfect insight into exactly how Ukraine’s custom-made systems work – in large part because they are not on the ground – both officials and open-source analysts say Ukraine has become a veritable battle lab for cheap but effective solutions.
“Their innovation is just incredibly impressive,” said Seth Jones, director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/15/politics/ukraine-russia-war-weapons-lab/index.html
“Of course, while it is ultimately Russians who will shape their country’s post-Putin fate, the West will also play a role.In the 1990s, an historic opportunity to create a true partnership and encourage genuine democracy in Russia was squandered, not least by short-termism, supporting Boris Yeltsin when he essentially stole the 1996 elections, as well as when he shelled his own parliament into submission in 1993, because his Communist and nationalist opponents were so unpleasant.
What was understandable in the short-term was disastrous in the long-term, furthering cynicism about a still-emerging democracy and creating conditions propitious for the rise of a revanchist nationalist and statist like Putin.It may be that the Ukrainian disaster will be a second chance for both Russia and the West.”
https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/is-there-hope-for-russia-after-putin
An amazing business book list here.
All very good.
Second Income Strategies Recommended Business Books I’m a huge book-reader, but I don’t normally read business books.There are two reasons for this: Most business books that offer practical advice become outdated after a few months (online learning is usually better).It tricks your mind into thinking that you’re “being productive” even though you aren’t.I usually prefer reading fiction or nonfiction abo… Read more a month ago · 22 likes · 5 comments · BowTiedTetra I’m very bullish on Japan.
“All said, Japan has remained very rich, is now creating high-quality full-time jobs, and has an inspiring track record of distributing wealth equitably.”
Japan Optimist Japan reality check #2: what is Japan’s economy really good at? Last week, a Japanese business leader sent an email: “Jesper, I need your help.I am on my way to Davos and want to promote Japan.If you are to mention three good things about Japan’s economy with data, what would these be?” Simple question.Here’s my answer… Read more a month ago · 12 likes · 6 comments · Jesper Koll “At present, an estimated 22 million people move to Africa’s cities each year.By 2050, the urban population in Africa will be over 1.3 billion, or nearly as much as the entire population of the continent today.
As they did in Asia over the past 50 or so years, these trends offer enormous opportunities for businesses and investors.
At African Lions Fund, our goal is to benefit from some of them.
In spite of a number of short-term challenges, such as high inflation, debt distress, and foreign exchange shortages that are afflicting some of the countries in our frontier Africa investment universe,these long-term demographic trends have not changed.
Moreover 2022 proved that a carefully selected portfolio of the best companies in frontier markets in sub-Sahara Africa can offer investors a rare safeharbour of non-correlation with the rest of the current global financial markets storm.”
https://globalvaluehunter.com/why-now-might-be-the-right-time-to-invest-or-invest-more-in-africa
“There are a number of super talented product founders right now that are either going after Twitter (betting on its decay) or Google (betting on their political inability to integrate ChatGPT-like results into search).
Both may be an opportunity, but trying to displace an incumbent with an atomic unit that smells too similar seems tough.
The gravitational pull of both products’ existing network effect is just too strong.Neither TikTok nor ChatGPT look like Google, but both are keeping Google up at night.I’d wonder how to innovate on the core atomic unit.”
https://medium.com/@sarahtavel/how-to-compete-against-an-incumbent-change-the-atomic-unit-even-in-social-672400b84e89
“So what do we tell our students, our children, ourselves about our current progress in the Long Singularity? That flexibility is key.That everyone should be experimenting with these new tools to understand what they mean for us.
That we should be prepared for a possible future that is very different than the past, in ways that are unknowable right now.
People are flexible, and technological change usually gives more than it takes, but we need to be ready for a much stranger world.”
One Useful Thing (And Also Some Other Things) Becoming strange in the Long Singularity For the better part of 20,000 centuries of human history, nothing much happened.We spent about 19,960 of those centuries making slightly different variations of one tool made out of a slightly chipped rock before figuring out the whole metal thing.But, even then, nothing really happened until about two centuries ago.Then… Read more a month ago · 63 likes · 11 comments · Ethan Mollick “It’s the same story of Rome’s elite plundering the empire all over again, just a few thousand years later.
No matter the country, the result is always the same.
Governments are responsible for creating laws that allow the elite to pay less than their fair share, then punish normal citizens and small business owners when they need to recover the funds needed to keep a nation functioning.The modern taxation system is designed to eat up the limited financial resources of the poor, while allowing the richest to keep everything they earn.”
Abundantia Eat the poor.In matters of taxation, Rome’s emperor Tiberius believed in handling things with a light touch.He was quoted as saying “Boni pastoris est tondere pecus, non deglubere.” Or roughly translated, “A good… Read more a month ago · 60 likes · 7 comments · Abundantia “Long before he became a Hollywood superhero, Momoa says, he was a climbing bum.
It all started when his mother, Coni, took him to the Needles, in South Dakota, when he was about 13.There a guide introduced him to bouldering.“I just became obsessed—my body felt beautiful,” he says.
“I suck at walking and running, but when he put me on a wall, I could move.”
https://www.outsideonline.com/culture/books-media/jason-momoa-the-climb-chris-sharma
Important discussion on geopolitical risk in 2023: China’s re-opening and the barbarian Russian invasion of Ukraine.Worth a read.
https://www.thelykeion.com/max-geopolitical-macro-uncertainty-in-q1-2
This is a good discussion: for founders or investors who have not been through a downturn.
Brad has been through 3 of them in his 30 years of investing in the tech sector.
This guy is fearless.
Really important discussion that is worth listening to.
Maximum bullish on Japan (yes I am biased but love the place).
“Perhaps, though, there actually might be a little bit at stake here.As Japan becomes a more open, globalized country, Western ideas and opinions have the potential to change Japan for the better.Outside perspectives could help Japan to solve the very real problems of the 2020s — corporate ossification, technological slowness, etc.
But if Westerners essentialize Japan — if they think of it as a country and culture frozen in amber — they won’t have much to offer the country in the here and now.
Japan is, in fact, a very dynamic and changeable place.”
Noahpinion Actually, Japan has changed a lot Reading the widely discussed farewell essay by the BBC’s outgoing Tokyo correspondent, Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, I felt a deep sense of frustration.The veteran journalist summed up his impression of Japan — where he has lived and worked since 2012 — as one of stagnation and stasis, declaring that “after a decade here I h… Read more 25 days ago · 313 likes · 119 comments · Noah Smith Pretty disturbing conversation on the drug cartel insurgency in Mexico & China’s influence there (and fueled by America’s addiction to drugs).
Hybrid warfare.
Very valuable conversation with NIA boys on the edge of the internet.Good stuff.
“My point here is that AI research efforts have this kind of hedge fund quality to them, in that are different groups competing with each other in secret so that nobody has a birds-eye view of the whole space and can therefore say with any confidence when something really big is about to unfold in it.
In this respect, the AGI chatter is the Valley version of Wall Street rumors about a big trade that some whale is stuck in that’s supposedly going sideways, or about some other major move deep in the plumbing of the financial system.”
jonstokes.com AGI Is Silicon Valley’s First Native Cryptid I’ve been chronicling the hand-wringing and fear-mongering over AI — what it will do to our jobs, our art, our morals — since the start of this newsletter.The fears around AI are escalating daily on my feed, and they’re coming from a really wide array of actors — BigCos like Google, independent artists and creators, effective altruists, woke AI ethicis… Read more 23 days ago · 8 likes · 1 comment · Jon Stokes “The recent announcements of more aid to Ukraine, including Western main battle tanks, demonstrates only greater Western commitment to Ukraine’s cause.
It also indicates that not only do Europe and America want Ukraine to defend itself.They wish to see Russia defeated.
Therefore, Putin’s view of being able to outwait the west may be another of his poor strategic assumptions.And, if Putin loses this war, it may just be the start of a cascading series of catastrophic events for Putin and Russia.”
Futura Doctrina Thinking About Putin and Russian Strategy During my two years at the Marine Corps Command Staff College, and School of Advanced Warfighting in the early 2000s, we were taught many, many things.But one of the simplest mantras was this: Fast, cheap and easy – pick two.
It is a short phrase but pr… Read more 24 days ago · 65 likes · 6 comments · Mick Ryan, AM Disturbing but also possible thread.Conclusion is clear: it’s going to be messy in the world of the near future.
Alaric The Barbarian @0xAlaric INSURGENCIES, MERCENARIES, & DESTABILIZATION Some thoughts on asymmetric warfare, a changing global order, and shifts in the model of military force.
Past, present, and future.[Thread]
8:40 PM ∙ Jan 23, 2023.
