“Life is an adventure, not a package tour.”–Eckhart Tolle
“These trends have resulted in an overhang of companies that either (1) lived without product market fit and survived well past their natural expiration point, or (2) hired way ahead of progress and burned large sums with high valuations and now are stuck with little progress per dollar and a large preference stack.
When will companies run out of cash?
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Subscribe Many companies are likely about to meet a hard reckoning.This is likely to start end of 2023 and accelerate through end of 2024 or so.The likely timing is +/- 6 months.It is based on when companies last fundraised at scale, 2021, and how much runway they raised.”
Elad Blog Startup Decoupling & Reckoning During the last few years low interest rates and money printing led to a funding bubble in private technology.
Many startups received pre-emptive extra “free rounds” and hired teams much larger then their stage or progress merited.
In parallel, abundant money and secondaries meant companies that should have shut down or sold kept going (indeed – this wa… Read more a month ago · 138 likes · Elad Gil “The joy/sexiness/luster of being a venture capitalist is starting to fade right now for so many people new to the business.When I say ‘new’ I mean people that started in the venture business between 2018-2022.
I believe the best seed and vc funds know how to treat both founders and LP’s as customers and shareholders at the right times.”
https://www.howardlindzon.com/p/venture-capitalist-customer-shareholder
“The next time an entrepreneur excitedly shares their idea, ask questions about the market, and encourage them to doggedly pursue customer feedback, while being open to better, adjacent ideas during the process.Pursue great markets and find the best ideas within them.”
https://davidcummings.org/2023/03/04/fall-in-love-with-the-market-not-the-idea/
“Ukraine has a path to victory still – I can see better Western armaments giving its scope to launch counteroffensives to recapture sizeable chunks of occupied Ukraine, even to the point that devastating defeat and the collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine is possible, even likely, but certainly more likely than that of Russian victory.”
@tashecon blog Time is not on Putin’s side I note that a consensus seems to be emerging that the war in Ukraine will be a long haul.
A dominant view seems to be that neither side can deliver the knock out blow, and that a long drawn out war of attrition will result, similar in many respects to the Iran – Iraq war of the 1980s.Many of those pushing this line seem to suggest that this is indeed n… Read more a month ago · 16 likes · 8 comments · Timothy Ash “The reality is that if the Russian do capture Bakhmut, they are seizing rubble.It is a town with minimal strategic importance, with almost no remaining infrastructure to support an occupying force.That the Russians have invested so much in its capture speaks volumes about their poor strategy in this war.
For the Ukrainians, they will be withdrawing into defensive zones in the Kramatorsk areas that they have had eight years to prepare.And the city sits on higher, more defensible ground than Bakhmut.Any advance on the Kramatorsk region is likely to be every bit as bloody for the Russians as its campaign for Bakhmut.”
Futura Doctrina The Battle of Bakhmut The Battle of Bakhmut has now raged since May 2022.
Bakhmut was also the site of a battle between Ukrainian Armed Forces and the forces of the separatist Donetsk People Republic in 2014.A mix of Ukrainian special forces and national guard personnel expelled the separatists in July 20… Read more a month ago · 105 likes · 30 comments · Mick Ryan, AM “As a society, we’re very attracted to the idea of “grit” and “gutting it out”.
Meanwhile, there’s a huge stigma around “quit” (related terms include include backtrackers, chickens, defeatists, deserters, dropouts, wimps and anytime I try to do 20 burpees in a row).
But if you think about it, “grit” and “quit” are two sides of the same coin.By sticking with a project, you are choosing not to quit and vice versa.”
SatPost by Trung Phan Grit vs.Quit Thanks for subscribing to SatPost.Today, we’re talking about Annie Duke’s book Quit, which has the subtitle “The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away” (I love a good explanatory subtitle).
Also this week: How Subway took over South Korea Salesforce employees don’t use Salesforce… Read more a month ago · 16 likes · Trungphan2 I do love glamping.
Thesis Driven Staying Outside: The Rise of Glamping Thesis Driven dives deep into emerging themes and real estate operating models by featuring operators executing on each theme.
This week’s letter is a guest post from Fed Novikov, co-founder at Apt.In early 2020, the hospitality industry came to an abrupt halt.Planes flew empty, urban hotels were vacated, and Airbnb’s business plummeted… Read more a month ago · 6 likes · Fed Novikov “You couldn’t ask for two better representatives of the NBA’s current divide.
In one corner, Draymond Green, the self-anointed leader of what he terms the New Media, an insurgent generation of players-slash-content creators (mostly podcasters and analysts) who aspire to cover the game by, in his words, “actually analyzing the game of basketball” and giving players their flowers while they can.It’s a noble pursuit, at least on paper.
Perkins, on the other hand, is the traditionalist, an avatar for what Green sees as the Old Media (mostly TV analysts) and everything wrong with it: hot takes, clickbait, and easy soundbites that flatten appreciation for the game.What makes Perk especially disappointing to Green is that he’s a former player, someone who should ostensibly know better.”
https://www.gq.com/story/nba-generations-media-war
“The toll was so high, that the British came to understand that they had no hope of exerting strategic control over Massachusetts, and pulled out entirely in 1776.
Greene understood instinctively why Bunker Hill mattered and was not a British victory.When the results of the Battle became known, he answered with the quote above—that he would gladly sell the British another hill at the same price.And in a way he did.
Though I dont have time to have too much of a historical digression here—Greene would later be sent by Washington to command colonial troops in the south, where he would ‘lose’ most of the battles he fought, but in such a way that he exhausted British forces in the South (led by Cornwallis) who became so worn out by Greene that they retreated northwards to Virginia.
There the British forces found themselves trapped at Yorktown—and I’m sure many of you know the result.
Nathaniel Greene would have known how to understand the importance of the Battle of Bakhmut—and his understanding remains the one that matters.”
Phillips’s Newsletter Weekend Update #18 The End of the Battle of Bakhmut? The End of the Battle of Bakhmut? “I wish [we] could sell them another hill at the same price” Phillips’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication.To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Nathaniel Greene… Read more a month ago · 221 likes · 47 comments · Phillips P.OBrien Good advice for solopreneurs or aspiring sovereign individuals moving to Latam.
BowTiedMara – Geoarbitrage & Mobility Assets The Sovereign Individual Stack Welcome Avatar! Today I will go over what to take into account when moving to Latam from a “developed” country.
The developed part is in the eye of the beholder, that is why it is in quotes, but you get the idea.What should be in your Sovereign Individual stack before you make the move to uncharted territory… Read more a month ago · 5 likes · BowTiedMara “Where Bankman-Fried effectively (but still allegedly) stole billions of dollars from regular people around the world, Hayes has never been accused of taking anything that didn’t belong to him, or lying to his customers, or running a crooked business.“He’s absolutely one of the good guys of crypto,” says Nic Carter, the co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, a blockchain-focused investment firm.“BitMEX never screwed over their clients, never got hacked, never lost money.”
If anything, Hayes has become something of a bitcoin martyr.
“He’s not the typical bad actor who embezzled money or stole money or did something really nefarious,” says Daniel Bresler, a partner at the law firm Seward & Kissel, which specializes in crypto and financial crime.“He didn’t follow rules that some people say shouldn’t exist in the first place.”
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/arthur-hayes-bitmex-crypto-interview.html
“Despite spending less than 24 hours in Singapore, the journey was successful: The airline miles propelled Coy into platinum status on Delta, putting her in an elite group of frequent flyers and qualifying her for several perks.
“Sacrificing that one weekend was absolutely worth it,” said Coy, who also made a similar trip to Budapest.
Trips like this are known as mileage runs.
These are flights where the mileage is the purpose, not the destination.Travelers take them to earn or maintain elite status with airlines like Delta, United, American, Southwest, or Alaska.
But are the miles really worth the trouble? And how do mileage runs stack up in a post-pandemic world of higher prices and fewer flights?”
https://link.thehustle.co/view/5f3b700a2c81bf63140abd4biai76.dr3/6cd8a10d
“It is powering moguls and mini-moguls, supporting budding empires like The Free Press, Letters from an American, Not Boring by Packy McCormick, Lenny’s Newsletter, Platformer, The Ankler., and many more.It is overvalued and underestimated, intolerant and permissive, loathed and adored.
Kleenex, Velcro, ChapStick, and Coke are all brand names that have come to define a category; Substack has wiggled its way into this distinguished, stuffy club as a precocious little urchin.
Newsletters are not simply newsletters anymore; they are Substacks – sometimes even if they are not on the platform.
It is, in short, news, in every sense of the word.
Substack is not a publisher nor a simple tool.It is a network, an ecosystem, an engine alive with word and culture and thought; an empire of narratives.”
The Generalist Substack: Empire of Narratives Brought to you by Mercury Why settle for mediocre banking? Startups have been led to believe that in order to safeguard their money, they have to settle for clunky, complicated banking experiences — but that’s a myth.Mercury offers secure banking* engineered precisely for the pace and creativity of startups.Open FDIC-i… Read more a month ago · 116 likes · 4 comments · Mario Gabriele “Make no mistake: moves are being made right now to limit your personal freedom, your freedom of movement, and your freedom of choice.Moves that will target your finances, your ability to earn, and your ability to spend your money the way you see fit.
Since starting this newsletter, my big focus has been on personal freedom.But the centrepiece of that is always getting your financial house in order.
Growing an independent income that you have full control of.Creating investments that pay you regardless of what is happening in our world.And having the financial means to be able to move to the city, state, or country you choose to live in, to acquire new passports and residencies, or simply to go somewhere else you can experience more freedom.”
Abundantia The monster is here.
Ancient Greece in the 7th Century BC was a time of myth, magic, and monsters.It’s this time in human history that one of the oldest surviving works of literature comes from—the Iliad.
Written by Home… Read more a month ago · 80 likes · 14 comments · Abundantia This is wacky.An ancient shark attack.
https://bigthink.com/the-past/ancient-shark-attack
“In the past few months alone, Japan has pledged to double defense spending and acquire long-range weapons from the US; South Korea has acknowledged that stability in the Taiwan Strait is essential to its security; the Philippines has announced new US base access rights and is talking about joint patrols of the South China Sea with Australia, Japan and the United States.
Those might be the biggest initiatives, but they are far from the only events that have left China increasingly isolated in its own backyard as it refuses to condemn the invasion of a sovereign country by its partner in Moscow while keeping military pressure on the self-ruled island of Taiwan.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/05/asia/ukraine-war-us-pacific-alliances-intl-hnk
Albania is amazing and I look forward to exploring this beautiful country more (and eating their delicious food).
https://www.cntraveler.com/story/in-albanias-tourism-revival-food-plays-a-central-role
Must read and follow.
“In this blog post, we’ll explore 7 different streams of income that can help you achieve financial independence and build long-term wealth.
From passive income streams like real estate income and dividend stocks to more active income streams like entrepreneurship and royalties, there are a variety of ways to increase your earning potential and secure your financial future.”
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/7-streams-of-income/
“One of the best decisions we can make is to reject the cultural expectations that shift and change with the wind.And to accept the fact that we don’t need to run with the cool kids to be happy.
We can choose to be ourselves instead.”
https://www.becomingminimalist.com/much-cooler/
This is critical and a must read.Also very timely.How to manage your startups cash.
Coding VC Cash Management for Early Stage Startups Most startups fail because they run out of money.
This is generally true, but it’s especially true in today’s economic climate… Read more a month ago · 13 likes · Leo Polovets Good interview here.Peter Zeihan on geopolitics.
Luke Belmar dropping some knowledge bombs.
“We kick back and expect this to be a Bond film.Pass the popcorn.We are failing to understand the implicit message in all this.The line between civilian and military is blurring.
China and Russia are both making it clear that they see everything and everyone is “dual use”.Militaries have long argued that technology could be used for either civilian or military purposes.
But, these days, the most valuable technologies have become dual use.Just as a car can kill you or drive you home safely, so it is with modern technology.The most sophisticated computer chips ARE the weapon.
IP theft and patent trolling has been a battlefield with China for years for a reason.”
Dr.Pippa’s Pen & Podcast You ARE the Combatant in this War “We are not in safe hands,” says Jeffrey Sachs.We are in a world where our leaders are behaving as if they can control escalation.Policymakers also believed they could control inflation.The problem is the belief that they have control.The problem is that they seem to have forgotten about history and failed to really think through how the next war will actually be fought, whether it’s a war on inflation or a war on an opponent.The two may be linked given that the low-interest rate policy in conjunction with quantitative easing created a massive jump in defense spending.Can you build all these new weapons and not use them? It’s time to ask the question now that China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang just said, “If the United States does not hit the brake, but continues to speed down the wrong path, no amount of guardrails can prevent derailing and there surely will be conflict and confrontation.” He continued, “Such competition is a reckless gamble, with the stakes being the fundamental interests of the two peoples and even the future of humanity.” Xi Jinping himself is now making it clear that he believes that America’s containment, encirclement and suppression of China risks provoking a military confrontation… Read more 23 days ago · 42 likes · 3 comments · Dr Pippa Good discussion on innovation.
Yes, her funds are not doing well but this is a cogent discussion on investing in innovation.
“If you must panic, panic early.
That’s the conventional wisdom ricocheting around Silicon Valley right now as technology institution Silicon Valley Bank looks precarious.
One founder at a venture capital event in San Francisco relayed that investors were fleeing to the edges of the room to call founders and warning them “not to be last in line at a bank run.”
Newcomer Panic Erupts As Venture Capitalists Tell Startups to Abandon Silicon Valley Bank Read more 22 days ago · 33 likes · Eric Newcomer “The Battle of Bakhmut is illustrative of one final difference.In Bakhmut, as it has through this whole war, Russia seeks victory through destruction – destruction of towns and cities, destruction of lives and Ukraine’s economy and will to exist.Ukraine, on the other hand, seeks victory through building.
It has built a unified Ukraine that is sovereign and able to defend itself, while also building for the world an example of how free people can join together to defend what they value.”
This is really sad.End of a Silicon Valley icon.Also emblematic of the boom and bust cycle of Silicon Valley too.
Newcomer BREAKING: Silicon Valley Bank Fails.FDIC Takes Over Read more 22 days ago · 25 likes · 2 comments · Eric Newcomer “The longer-term effect of SVB’s collapse on the broader tech sector is likely to be negative, but not catastrophic.
This episode and the general disruption and uncertainty it causes will add to the general air of pessimism that has prevailed since early 2022.
SVB also provided a lot of other financial services to companies, and it will be annoying and dispiriting to have to find new providers.And SVB was itself an important tech investor, so its demise will exacerbate the overall startup funding crunch.
In a way, this is just one more shoe dropping in the slow deflation of the Second Tech Boom.
(On the bright side, more pessimism probably means higher returns for those who are both willing and able to invest while others are shunning the sector.)”
Noahpinion Why was there a run on Silicon Valley Bank? The big news in both the tech and financial worlds right now is the run on Silicon Valley Bank.SVB, as it’s known, was a bank that lent a lot of money to startups (or “startups”, i.e.bigger tech companies that are still private), and provided a lot of financial services to both startups and other tech companies.Here’s… Read more 21 days ago · 59 likes · 17 comments · Noah Smith What a mess.
Like startup founders had nothing to worry about before this, now just one more crisis to sort out.
“Some of the companies that seem to be panicking may have had all their deposits sitting in cash with SVB rather than sweep accounts [that were not on the bank’s balance sheet], which is kind of stupid anyways,” he said.
Startup executives were also grappling with the broader legacy of Silicon Valley Bank, which had a reputation as a partner to tech firms that wouldn’t “put you out of business when you struggle to pay them back,” said Pat Kinsel, chief executive of Notarize, a Founders Fund-backed digital notary startup, which has worked with the bank at his previous startups.
“SVB going under means that many, many more startups will die when the going gets tough when they otherwise would have survived and thrived with their help,” he added.”
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