“Adventure is not outside man; it is within.”–George Eliot
“So the most helpful clues to understanding Silicon Valley today may come from its favorite ancient philosophy: Stoicism.
An ancient Greek school of thought, Stoicism argued that the only real treasures in life were inner virtues, like self-mastery and courage.The Stoics offered tactics to endure pain and pleasure without complaint.”
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Subscribe https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/26/style/silicon-valley-stoics.html
This is a masterclass on coaching and I learned a lot, especially as someone who has Anger management issues.Mochary is one of the best in Silicon Valley.
This is a very optimistic view of the USA vis a vis Russia and China.I hope he is right but we cannot afford to be complacent.
Interview with VC Mark Sister on the SVB mess.
This is where the guys shine: discussing the tech industry and the SVB mess.
“Although collapse is by no means a foregone conclusion for the Eurozone, the inability to address its deep system problems raises serious concerns.In the face of growing political complexity within the Eurozone, leaders in both Europe and the United States must recognize the inherent fragility of the currency union and work together to help promote economic and financial stability.
If the Eurozone is to survive, its member states must be willing to make mutual sacrifices for the collective good.Ultimately, just as the creation of the Eurozone is rooted in European politics so shall its survival rest upon the future of European politics.”
Shatterpoints Geopolitics Shatterpoints Addendum: Hidden Fractures Back in the spring of 2018, I wrote an article for The Chicago Journal of Foreign Policy, a student journal at the University of Chicago.
This article would go on to serve as the foundation for my Masters’ Thesis and as the subject of multiple Shatterpoints articles published over the summer of 2021.Below is the article published in its entirety.I lea… Read more a month ago · Nathan Carson “The immediate next steps are to have two banking relationships and a strategy to have deposits over the FDIC $250,000 amount either insured across multiple banks and/or in ultra short term government T-bills.Bank failures are extremely rare, but with a little work, the tools and systems are already available to minimize any potential exposure.”
https://davidcummings.org/2023/03/11/bank-hygiene-for-startups
I’m gonna be there!
https://www.timeout.com/tokyo/things-to-do/meguro-river-sakura-festival
“The decision to back Ukraine is finally rebooting some elements of the defense–industrial base and an attendant healthy manufacturing workforce.
This is essential for deterring China.But it will not be enough if the White House, Congress, military leaders, and the business community fail to seize this moment together and prepare the nation.”
I really like this newsletter and sorry I missed the Thesis Festival.
https://www.jasonshen.com/143/?ref=jason-shen-cultivating-resilience-newsletter
Well said.
“To be honest – I think the real lesson is not about FDIC insurance, it’s about risk and black swans.
This is a black swan event.
But I’ll be damned if I haven’t been seeing a lot of these black swans lately.
Once in a hundred year virus causes a global pandemic
The global reserve currency hits the highest inflation in 40 years
Invincible monopoly tech stocks (FB, Amazon, etc.) drop more than 40%+
FTX turns out to be a big fat scam
The past year has felt like the Flight of the Black Swans.
They migrated to my neighborhood, and it turns out, black swans sure do like shitting directly onto my shoulder.
So beware.
It’s black swan season.”
https://shaan.beehiiv.com/p/just-happened
“The West can ignore these lessons at their own peril or use them to transform existing capabilities into future war-winning advantages.
The danger of dominant military organizations is that, short of lessons learned in the unforgiving crucible of combat, they tend to fall back on comfortable assumptions and ignore any signals of change that contradict their most-cherished strategic beliefs.
We can do worse than to listen and learn from the incredible innovation happening in the Ukraine.”
I love this guy.For anyone wanting to be better, watch this.How to be independent and self sovereign.
“The threat from PRC nationals legally entering the US in order to engage in espionage activities is voluminously documented.
The costs of failing to deal with this threat for decades have already been significant.
Addressing this issue decisively and swiftly is well within the ability of each US administration.All that is lacking is the will to do so.”
Patrick Fox Let’s F*ck With Xi, Part 1 The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the most dangerous geopolitical threat the United States faces from another nation state today.Yet only recently has the US government made any serious attempt to economically decouple from it or check its expansionism around the globe.Still more work is required to reverse PRC i… Read more a month ago · 4 likes · 3 comments · Patrick Fox “Today, stablecoins solve a very real pain point in the crypto capital markets.They may not totally line up with the core tenets of crypto — namely, they are not decentralised whatsoever — but the point of stablecoins is not to create a decentralised product where it isn’t needed.Instead, they are simply intended to provide a fiat tokenisation service the banks refuse to offer.”
https://medium.com/entrepreneur-s-handbook/dust-on-crust-300d4b5cf3ec
“It will feel like chaos at times.But remember that human societies always gravitate towards order.Chaos in this sense doesn’t need to be a pit of despair.
Instead, it’s a ladder of opportunity.Don’t avoid or ignore what’s happening.Pay attention, learn from it, and focus on where order is beginning to reestablish itself.Treat the chaos as an opportunity.Position yourself ahead of the herd.”
https://www.thesovereignindividualweekly.com/p/chaos-ladder
“Conclusion: Put this all together:
1) you should have multiple bank accounts as mentioned many times – one should be crypto only, period, full stop for all your CEX transactions,
2) you should move any major money to a large “too big to fail firm”especially if you run a small business,
3) it is best to take excess money and do either T-bills or crypto.
This is more art than science.
The middle will get crushed since people will sell their stocks/401Ks to try and pay their mortgage as layoffs ramp up and 4) watch the unemployment rate.
The Fed has already said they are fine with up to about 4.6% and we’re at 3.6%.This gives you a rough guideline on when they would get concerned (around 5%).
In case it isn’t clear, the goal is to absolutely crush anyone in the middle.If you’re average joe buying boring stocks, you’re paying an expensive premium for them since the earnings yield on stocks is *lower* than the risk-free rate.”
BowTied Bull Silicon Valley Bank – A Zero! No, it Wasn’t a “Bailout” Welcome Avatar! After Silvergate crashed and burned Silicon Valley Bank shortly followed (as we are writing this Signature just got taken over as well!) .This isn’t really surprising as someone has to be giving out those low interest rate loans.
No one knew who it would be 2-3 years ago but the cracks are here and it’s time to breakdown the basics.Bef… Read more a month ago · 129 likes · 82 comments · BowTied Bull “I’ve observed many salespeople fail at executing their Qualification process because they failed to address the Baseline Frame.
Baseline Frame:
The prospect sees you as Low Status and you need to earn the right for them to follow your sales process.
Whether this is objectively true or not doesn’t matter.
It’s what the prospect believes..therefore it is something you need to address *before* you can proceed to influence them.”
The Chad Salesman Give a little to get a lot I’ve observed many salespeople fail at executing their Qualification process because they failed to address the Baseline Frame.
Baseline Frame: The prospect sees you as Low Status and you need to earn the right for them to follow your sales process… Read more a month ago · 29 likes · BowTiedSalesGuy Codie is the best.
So much to learn here.
“SVB, he said, was the “most generous” of the tech lenders because the loans helped fuel its broader banking business.
“They were the easiest money for an unprofitable, early-stage to mid-stage tech company,” said Abelson.“That is gone.”
Herndon of The Guild thinks less availability of venture debt could be good for tech startups.“It’s all fun and good until the time to pay back the loan occurs,” he said.“I think we all would be better off burning a lot less cash.”
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/svbs-failure-means-easiest-money-for-startups-is-gone
Chip wars! The most important yet forgotten industry.
“In this situation, if I were people in the VC/startup world, I would cool down any anti-government rhetoric.
In happier times, libertarian outbursts were just part of the ecosystem of ideas that kept Silicon Valley and the U.S.government at arms length, allowing their symbiotic relationship to persist.
Today, after VCs loudly and successfully demanded government help for their portfolio companies, angry attempts to blame the government for the whole debacle will look like biting the hand that feeds, and will risk refocusing the techlash from big tech companies to VCs.
Beyond that, if I were people in the VC and startup world, I would think twice about expanding fintech startups’ role in the world of lending and debt, and their connections to the traditional banking sector.
When tech can boom and crash without taking down the banks, it’s free to innovate and build and take risks — and the government will have a strong incentive to leave it unmolested.That formula has worked well until now; it would be a shame to tear up a favorable arrangement.”
Noahpinion Will government regulate VCs and startups a lot more now? As soon as Silicon Valley Bank went under, the call went out.Friends of mine in the tech world — mostly VCs and some founders — were immediately pulling me into chat groups with names like “Stop Bank Failure Cascade”.
The directionless panic only lasted only a few hours; startup world people are people of action, and their primary instinct is to… Read more 23 days ago · 62 likes · 30 comments · Noah Smith I like learning about these morning routines of successful folks.
https://yfsmagazine.com/2023/03/07/tech-founder-aliya-grig-shares-her-ultimate-morning-routine/
“As Alexandra Prokopenko puts it, “Russia is drifting toward a yuan currency zone, swapping its dollar dependence for reliance on the yuan.” Interestingly, as Russia turns to the yuan, China needs to accumulate greater and greater reserves in dollars.The global system develops into a hierarchical or tiered structure, with Russia entirely dependent on the yuan, without affecting the status of the dollar.”
World Game Russia is drifting towards a yuan currency zone After both Russian commercial banks and the Russian central bank were sanctioned by Western governments, holding dollars or euros became a distinctly risky business.Russians banks can still hold dollar deposits, but if these funds get anywhere near Western financial institutions, they can be frozen.Since February 2022, United States persons are… Read more 23 days ago · 7 likes · Bruno Maçães “TL;DR: As Silicon Valley Bank collapsed last week, $3B+ in funds flowed through the startup ecosystem to other startups, particularly neobanks Mercury and Brex.
This catalyzing event gives Mercury the opportunity to aggregate startup demand, build the Booking.
com of startup banking and create a new gathering place for technology startups and capital.”
https://sacra.com/research/mercury-unbundling-silicon-valley-bank/
Good tips for building in public from someone who has done it well.
KP’s Column Building in public advice for newbies ⚡️ A QUICK NOTE ABOUT OUR FEATURED SPONSOR ⚡️ Thanks to this week’s featured sponsor: Lemon.io 🍋 Lemon.io provides a trusted source of pre-vetted candidates to make your search easier and faster.They offer tested and verified devs, affordable rates, and a zero-risk replacement guarantee… Read more 23 days ago · 7 likes Lesson that all technology is usually dual use.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/china-made-drone-downed-eastern-ukraine-hnk-intl
This seems like NOT a best practice in doing lay offs.
“But this week, Zuckerberg announced plans to lay off another 10,000 workers and will do so in a piecemeal fashion over the next few months.People who work in recruitment will be immediately impacted, those in tech will find out in April, while business workers will learn their fate in late May.Additionally, Zuckerberg had been hinting at these layoffs for weeks, further extending the air of unease at the company.
It’s a bad way to do layoffs, which experts say should be minimal, compassionate, and clearly communicated.Doing so little by little will leave workers on edge and drive away people Meta wants to keep, and there’s also a good chance it will hurt the company from growing in the future.”
https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/3/16/23642978/facebook-meta-layoffs-bad
“The financialization of tech was necessary, in some ways.As computing grew ubiquitous, especially with the rise of the smartphone, the market opportunity for technology products exploded.The moment called for financial rigor, planning, and — yes — VC funding.
And financially minded people soon pushed the tech industry into an exceptional economic position.
But the tech sector, or at least parts of it, then trended into over-financialization.Instead of thinking about what problems they could solve for people, some companies looked only at growth and margins.They acted extractive, not like the startups at demo day.
Doordash, for instance, counted tips toward its minimum delivery worker payments, changing only after an uproar.And as this happened, VCs — not builders — became the tech industry’s most recognizable names.”
Big Technology The Over-Financialization Of Tech And The SVB Backlash In the early 2010s, hundreds of technologists would pack NYU’s Skirball Center for the monthly New York Tech Meetup.At the event, local developers would show off their latest products.And depending on the slate, you might see new dating websites, funny weather bots, or Foursquare plugins that made you look busy while… Read more 22 days ago · 39 likes · 2 comments · Alex Kantrowitz Vox hit piece, but I understand.It’s hard sometimes to take these 20-something supposed millionaires seriously.
But if the messages helps some young men better themselves, then I am all for it.
“Christian Angermayer is an optimist.
“We should all be happy,” he says with a smile on his face, but also a sense of concern.“We are living in the most amazing time in the history of humanity, but a lot of what we read out there in the media is very negative.
Looking beyond headlines and at the facts, people should be happy, but they are not, and mental health is the biggest healthcare issue out there.
Hence, I have made it my mission to help shape and build a future for humanity that is much more positive, and progressive—a world that I want to live in.” By any metric, Christian Angermayer’s mission statement is a lofty one, but if anyone is capable of achieving it, he is.
Only 44 years old, the German entrepreneur and investor has already made significant contributions to the business world by not only starting three ‘unicorns’, but also being the lead investor in another four, and even two ‘decacorns’.He features on Forbes magazine’s World Billionaires list with a net worth of $1.2b.
As the founder of Apeiron Investment Group—his family office and private investment firm—he is renowned for investing in biotech, fintech, and blockchain sectors, particularly in cutting-edge companies that push boundaries—including challenging the limits of human life expectancy.”
“In closing, an analyst asked whether particular verticals contributed to the growth rate decline.The answer: “No, it’s been broad-based.”
Mongo’s earnings call underscores the new budget constraints across buyers & paints a stark contrast to the massive growth in the previous year.
Software budgets aren’t yet showing signs of growing.”
https://tomtunguz.com/mongo-earnings-2023q1/
“In the immediate aftermath, observers are doing what they do after a complex catastrophe — cherry-picking the proximate cause that suits their politics and priors.It wasn’t rising interest rates, poor risk management, the concentration of the depositor base, or Venture Catastrophists on social media.It was all of it.”
https://www.profgalloway.com/venture-catastrophists/
“Now, I do think it’s worth acknowledging venture capitalists really are, for the most part, incredibly annoying.There is a reason for this.A venture capital firm is just money, and beyond a startup’s Series A the game of venture capital mostly consists of persuading the very best entrepreneurs to take money from you rather than the other guy.
This dynamic naturally places a great prominence on brand, or reputation.Among top VC firms, reputation is mostly made by record, both as a great ally to founders, and — most importantly — a winner.
But for firms or venture capitalists with less of a track record, you’ve pretty much just got Twitter.Given venture capitalists are also people who tend to have a lot more time on their hands than they’d generally like you to think, this is a recipe for incredibly dramatic status games, all played loudly out online, which is just to say I get it.
I can’t stand a lot of these people myself, many of whom have spent the last week begging journalists to write hit pieces on my friends at Founders Fund, as it is easier to demonize a firm for acting responsibly in the middle of a crisis than it is to introspect and ask oneself difficult questions like “why did I tell my founders to sit still in the middle of a burning house,” and “how did I, a person literally professionally meant to understand risk, not understand this?”
Pirate Wires On Euthanizing Venture Capitalists Pirate Wires doesn’t live without you guys.If you believe in what we’re doing here, please share this with your friends, and tell them to join (for free).As ever, your support means everything.
Onward! Rich guy in the kitchen with the candlestick.As the hours following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank passed into days, and then finally our first wee… Read more 22 days ago · 55 likes · 8 comments · Mike Solana This is a great conversation this week.The Reset of VC!
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Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 19th, 2023 hardfork.substack.com
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