[Skip to main content](#main)
Poilievre surpasses Trudeau when it comes to preferred prime minister: Nanos
The federal Liberals are trending downward on three key measures while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has surpassed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau when it comes to the question of who Canadians would prefer now as their prime minister, according to Nanos Research.
Ballot support has been trending negatively now for weeks for the Liberals, while it’s remained steady for the Conservatives; meanwhile, support for Trudeau as prime minister has taken a sharp downward turn as Poilievre’s personal numbers have risen to the point of surpassing Trudeau’s.
Preferred Prime Minister (Source: Nanos Research)
“Usually whoever is the prime minister has some sort of advantage.Right now, Pierre Poilievre outpolls Justin Trudeau,” said
Nik Nanos, pollster and chair of Nanos Research, on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line.
LIBERALS LOSING ‘ACCESSIBLE VOTERS’
Aside from their sagging numbers on the ballot and
preferred prime minister question, the other key metric where the Liberals have fallen behind is on the Nanos power index, which is a composite of measurements including voter preference and leadership impressions, as well accessible voters – the proportion of Canadians who would consider voting for a party.
“Over the course of the last while, the Liberals have consistently had an advantage on the power index and had a stronger brand.Now we see the Conservatives surpassing them for the first time in a couple of years since the last election, when the Conservatives had a little bit of a surge,” said Nanos.
Currently, the Conservatives sit at 50 points on the power index, while the Liberals are at 47 and the NDP at 46.
Power Index (Source: Nanos Research)
A key reason for the Conservative surge is that their share of accessible voters in Canada is growing.
“For the last … 50 years, the Liberals traditionally have always had a larger pool of accessible voters.That means people that would consider voting Liberal,” said Nanos.That was certainly true in the 2015 election when Trudeau secured a majority for the Liberals, who took 184 seats compared with Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, who won 99.
“But since 2015, the proportion of Canadians that would consider voting Liberal has gone down.So they’ve gone from a big tent … to a narrower tent.
And as a result, it’s impacted the political muscle of the Liberals,” said Nanos.
Speaking of elections, Nanos said the good news for the Liberals is that they’re not fighting in one anytime soon.
With Poilievre’s Conservatives currently at 35 per cent on the ballot question, with a six-point lead over the Liberals, they’re in the territory they need to be in, in order to win an election.
Ballot support (Source: Nanos Research)
“When Stephen Harper won a number of elections, he won because he had a six-point advantage.
Right now, the Conservatives have a six-point advantage,” said Nanos.
BUDGET AND BIDEN BOUNCE?
Whether Tuesday’s
federal budget — in which the Liberal government prioritized help for Canadians’ pocketbooks and promised to invest in a clean economy and fund a national dental care program — will boost their fortunes in they eyes of voters is yet to be seen.Nanos said wewon’t know that for anotherseven to 10 days.
But “it speaks to the importance of the budget and also the most recent visit from President Biden.It’s very important for the Liberals to try to reverse this trend right now that currently is favouring Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservative Party,” said Nanos.
Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article.You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts.The next episode comes out Wednesday, April 12.
MORE POLITICS NEWS
IN DEPTH
‘Everything is interwoven’: Trudeau and Biden vow continued Canada-U.S.collaboration during historic visit
U.S President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have announced updates on a number of cross-border issues, after a day of meetings on Parliament Hill.
FACT CHECK |
Popular e-petition calling for Canada to allow trans people to claim asylum, but that right is ‘already established’
More than 130,000 people have signed an e-petition calling on Canada to give transgender and non-binary people fleeing harmful laws in their home countries the right to claim asylum, but that’s already possible in this country.
Advocates say the popularity of the proposal shows politicians that Canadians want the government to affirm its welcoming position.
Trudeau met threshold to invoke Emergencies Act, commission finds
The Public Order Emergency Commission has concluded that the federal government met the threshold for invoking the Emergencies Act to bring an end to the ‘Freedom Convoy’ protests and blockades.
PM Trudeau presents premiers $196B health-care funding deal, with $46B in new funding over the next decade
The federal government is pledging to increase health funding to Canada’s provinces and territories by $196.1 billion over the next 10 years, in a long-awaited deal aimed at addressing Canada’s crumbling health-care systems with $46.2 billion in new funding.
Canada may be turning corner on inflation, but Bank of Canada governor not ruling out ‘mild recession’
Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem says he thinks Canada is ‘turning the corner’ on inflation, but he isn’t ruling out that the country could enter a ‘mild recession.’ In an English-language broadcast exclusive interview with CTV National News Ottawa Bureau Chief Joyce Napier, Macklem encouraged Canadians to prepare a ‘buffer’ to withstand ‘tougher times.’
Opinion
opinion |
Don Martin’s sorry-to-be-cynical prediction on the federal budget
The only thing most Canadians will remember about the budget this time next week is how the booze tax increase was reduced to two per cent from six, writes Don Martin in a column for CTVNews.ca.
opinion |
Don Martin: Beware the friendly face of Joe Biden.He’s just not that into us.
Joe Biden comes for a sleepover next week to make Canada the 18th country he has visited since being sworn in as U.S.
president, quite the protocol slippage from that fading, if not forgotten, tradition of Canada being the first foreign presidential pitstop, writes Don Martin in a column for CTVNews.ca.
opinion |
Don Martin: Finally and inevitably, Trudeau waved the white flag
After weeks of refusing to look further into foreign election interference, Justin Trudeau surrendered to intense pressure and appointed a ‘special rapporteur’ to review China’s actions.In his exclusive column for CTVNews.ca, Don Martin writes this ‘startling change of heart’ suggests the PMO is in panic mode and reflects badly on the prime minister’s decision making.
opinion |
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-the-trudeau-tipping-point-is-within-sight-1.6292729″>
Don Martin: The Trudeau tipping point is within sight
The Trudeau tipping point is within sight.The moment when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau knows he has to quit for the good of the party or the Liberals realize they can’t survive re-election with him at the helm is almost upon us, Don Martin writes in an exclusive column for CTVNews.ca.
[]https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-the-trudeau-tipping-point-is-within-sight-1.6292729
opinion |
Don Martin: Trudeau can’t ignore the dangers of Chinese meddling in Canada’s elections
Bombshell revelations that suggest Chinese agents actively, fraudulently and successfully manipulated Canada’s electoral integrity in the last two federal elections cannot be dismissed with the standard Justin Trudeau nothing-to-see-here shrug, Don Martin writes in his exclusive opinion column for CTVNews.ca.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
BREAKING |
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/responding-to-indigenous-vatican-rejects-discovery-doctrine-1.6335408″>
Responding to Indigenous, Vatican rejects Discovery Doctrine
The Vatican on Thursday responded to Indigenous demands and formally repudiated the ‘Doctrine of Discovery,’ the theories backed by 15th-century ‘papal bulls’ that legitimized the colonial-era seizure of Native lands and form the basis of some property law today.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/responding-to-indigenous-vatican-rejects-discovery-doctrine-1.6335408
TREND LINE |
Poilievre surpasses Trudeau when it comes to preferred prime minister: Nanos
The federal Liberals are trending downward on three key measures while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has surpassed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau when it comes to the question of who Canadians would prefer now as their prime minister, according to Nanos Research.
opinion |
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/this-is-how-much-debt-is-normal-for-your-age-1.6335429″>
This is how much debt is normal for your age
Have you ever stopped to wonder how much debt is typical for your age?
[]https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/this-is-how-much-debt-is-normal-for-your-age-1.6335429
‘Leave this with me’: Alberta premier heard on call with COVID-19 protester
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, in a leaked cellphone call, commiserated with a COVID-19 protester about his trial while divulging to him there was an internal dispute over how Crown prosecutors were handling COVID-19 cases.
As Canadians miss out on benefits, Ottawa promises automatic tax filing is on the way
The Canada Revenue Agency will pilot a new automatic system next year to help vulnerable Canadians who don’t file their taxes get their benefits.This week’s federal budget says the Canada Revenue Agency will also present a plan in 2024 to expand the service, following consultations with stakeholders and community organizations.
Canada makes amendments to foreign homebuyers ban – here’s what they look like
Months after Canada’s ban on foreign homebuyers took effect on Jan.
1, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has made several amendments to the legislation allowing non-Canadians to purchase residential properties in certain circumstances.
‘It’s going to take the community’: Yukon faces Canada’s worst toxic drug death rate
When the doors close at night at the administration office at Yukon’s Carcross Tagish First Nation, a van hits the road and drives through the communities to offer naloxone to reverse overdoses, drug testing kits, food and even a friendly face to help those struggling because of the opioid crisis.
What is the grocery rebate in federal budget 2023? Key questions, answered
To help offset rising living expenses, the Government of Canada has introduced a one-time grocery rebate for low- and modest-income Canadians.Here is what we know about the rebate.
‘A freeze response of shock’: Expert weighs in on bystanders not stepping in during fatal Vancouver stabbing
After a man was fatally stabbed outside of a Vancouver Starbucks in front of dozens of witnesses, video of the attack is circulating on social media, raising questions about why nobody stepped in to help.
Canada
–
Final report into 2020 Nova Scotia mass shooting to be released today
The public inquiry that investigated the April 2020 mass murder of 22 people in Nova Scotia is releasing its final report today.
–
‘A freeze response of shock’: Expert weighs in on bystanders not stepping in during fatal Vancouver stabbing
After a man was fatally stabbed outside of a Vancouver Starbucks in front of dozens of witnesses, video of the attack is circulating on social media, raising questions about why nobody stepped in to help.
–
‘It’s going to take the community’: Yukon faces Canada’s worst toxic drug death rate
When the doors close at night at the administration office at Yukon’s Carcross Tagish First Nation, a van hits the road and drives through the communities to offer naloxone to reverse overdoses, drug testing kits, food and even a friendly face to help those struggling because of the opioid crisis.
–
Canadian supporters of missing Chinese human-rights defender want more information
Canadian supporters of Dong Guangping, a missing Chinese human-rights defender, are disappointed with what they call a disingenuous response from Vietnamese officials to the United Nations.
–
Recalled in Canada: Change tables over entrapment hazard, hoodies due to risk of choking
Health Canada has issued two recalls, one for change tables over an entrapment hazard and another for bamboo nursing hoodies due to a risk of choking.
–
RCMP arrest 5 while executing search warrant at Wet’suwet’en protest camp
RCMP officers executed a search warrant at a protest camp on Wet’suwet’en traditional territory near the under-construction Coastal GasLink pipeline Wednesday.
World
–
Taiwan’s president speaks to her island’s safety on U.S.stop
Taiwan’s president addressed members of New York’s Taiwanese community in a U.S.stopover on her way to Central America as she seeks to rally allies of the self-ruled island amid tensions with China.
–
French foreign minister hopes Sweden, Finland join NATO soon
France’s top diplomat said Thursday that she hoped the NATO applications of Sweden and Finland would be “ratified quickly” as the Turkish parliament was expected to vote soon on whether Finland should join the 30-member alliance.
–
Top UN court to rule in Iran-U.S.
dispute over frozen assets
The United Nations’ highest court is set to rule Thursday in a case filed by Iran against the United States over frozen Iranian assets worth some $2 billion that the U.S.Supreme Court awarded to victims of a 1983 bombing in Lebanon and other attacks linked to Tehran.
–
Philippine ferry fire kills 31 people; at least 7 missing
A fire broke out on a ferry in the southern Philippines and raged overnight for eight hours, killing at least 31 of the approximately 250 passengers and crew, officials said Thursday.
–
Vatican: Pope improving since hospitalization with infection
Pope Francis rested well overnight and was ‘progressively improving’ Thursday after being hospitalized with a respiratory infection, the Vatican said.
–
BREAKING
BREAKING |
Responding to Indigenous, Vatican rejects Discovery Doctrine
The Vatican on Thursday responded to Indigenous demands and formally repudiated the ‘Doctrine of Discovery,’ the theories backed by 15th-century ‘papal bulls’ that legitimized the colonial-era seizure of Native lands and form the basis of some property law today.
Politics
–
Spending to increase economic capacity is fiscally responsible, Freeland says in post-budget defence
Defending her latest federal budget, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said spending that increases economic capacity is fiscally responsible.
–
From royal titles to animal testing: The law changes coming in the budget bill
The 2023 federal budget released this week includes a series of affordability measures, tax changes, and major spends on health care and the clean economy.But, tucked into the 255-page document are a series of smaller items you may have missed.
–
RCMP interviewing Canadians held in detention camps in Syria: sources
CTV News has learned that RCMP officers are currently in northeast Syria, interviewing Canadians held in detention camps in order to bring them back to Canada.The three Mounties have so far interviewed only Canadian women in Al-Roj camp.
Health
–
‘It’s going to take the community’: Yukon faces Canada’s worst toxic drug death rate
When the doors close at night at the administration office at Yukon’s Carcross Tagish First Nation, a van hits the road and drives through the communities to offer naloxone to reverse overdoses, drug testing kits, food and even a friendly face to help those struggling because of the opioid crisis.
–
Clock ticks on Liberal-NDP deal as budget omits pharmacare bill promised in 2023
One of the Liberals’ outstanding promises for 2023 in their deal with the NDP was conspicuously absent from the federal budget.
–
WHO to consider adding obesity drugs to ‘essential’ medicines list
Drugs that combat obesity are under consideration for the first time for the World Health Organization’s ‘essential medicines list,’ used to guide government purchasing decisions in low- and middle-income countries, the UN agency told Reuters.
Sci-Tech
–
Could Canada soon standardize USB chargers? Feds looking into it, budget says
Tucked into the 2023 federal budget unveiled on Tuesday in Ottawa, the Liberals have announced plans to explore implementing a standard charging port across Canada, in an effort to save Canadians some money and reduce waste.
–
Apple rolls out buy now, pay later service: What to know
Apple is getting into the buy now, pay later space with a few tweaks to the existing model — including no option to pay with a credit card.The company will roll out the product to some consumers this spring, and will begin reporting the loans to credit bureaus in the fall.
–
Elon Musk and scientists call for halt to AI race sparked by ChatGPT
A group of prominent computer scientists and other tech industry notables such as Elon Musk and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak are calling for a 6-month pause to consider AI’s risks on society.
Entertainment
–
Actress Melissa Joan Hart describes helping children flee campus after Nashville school shooting
Actress Melissa Joan Hart says she was near Nashville’s Covenant School soon after Monday’s deadly shooting of six people, including three children, and helped some students get away from the scene.
–
Jeremy Renner talks tragedy and triumph with Diane Sawyer
Jeremy Renner has sat down for his first interview since the New Year’s Day accident that could have killed him.
–
Gwyneth Paltrow’s widely watched ski crash trial nears end
The closely watched trial over a 2016 ski collision between Gwyneth Paltrow and the retired optometrist suing her for the injuries he sustained is expected to draw to a close Thursday, when attorneys give closing arguments and send the case to the eight-member jury.
Business
–
China’s No.2 leader says economy improved in March
China’s new No.2 leader said Thursday its economic recovery improved in March and tried to reassure foreign companies the country is committed to opening to the world.
–
U.S.futures rise as bank fears ease; US econ data on the way
Wall Street is poised to open with gains Thursday as worries over turmoil in the banking industry ease and attention turns toward government economic data coming out the next couple of days.
–
Businesses praise credit card fee relief but consumers savings not guaranteed
Small business owners are praising a measure in the federal budget to lower credit card interchange fees, but some industry representatives argued the move will do little to save costs for consumers.
Lifestyle
–
Meet the Ontario stats prof who claims he can’t stop beating Roll Up To Win
A statistics professor at the University of Waterloo discusses how he continues to beat the Roll Up To Win contest at Tim Hortons.
–
Rare T-Rex skeleton to go under the hammer in Switzerland
The skeleton of a giant Tyrannosaurus Rex was introduced to the public in Switzerland on Wednesday ahead of its auction next month.
–
Many Canadians like to tell ‘white lies’ about home-cooked meals: survey
Have you ever had to lie about the quality of a home-cooked meal to protect someone’s feelings? According to a new survey by Research Co.
you’re not the only one.
Sports
–
Former Olympic runner Oscar Pistorius, who shot girlfriend, eligible for parole
Former Olympic runner Oscar Pistorius has applied for parole and is expected to attend a hearing on Friday that will decide if he can be released from prison 10 years after killing girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp by shooting her multiple times through a toilet door in his home.
–
Canadian tennis star Andreescu out with torn ankle ligaments
Canadian tennis star Bianca Andreescu says she sustained two torn ligaments in her left ankle in a recent match at the Miami Open.
–
Canadian swimmer McIntosh sets women’s world record in 400-metre freestyle
Sixteen-year-old Summer McIntosh of Toronto has set a world record in the women’s 400-metre freestyle event at the Canadian swimming trials.
Autos
–
The Lamborghini Revuelto is a 1,001 horsepower hybrid supercar flagship
Closing out a half century of purely gasoline-powered V12 cars going back to the brand’s earliest models, Luxury Italian sports car designer Lamborghini has unveiled its first supercar with a charging port.
–
Alonso seeks 33rd Formula 1 win after 100 podium finishes
After claiming his 100th podium in Saudi Arabia in confusing and controversial circumstances, Fernando Alonso is looking for a better result at Sunday’s Australian Grand Prix than his two third-place finishes so far this Formula One season.
–
U.S.opens investigation into Tesla seat belts coming loose
U.S.highway safety regulators have opened yet another investigation into problems with Teslas, this time tied to complaints that the seat belts may not hold people in a crash..