December 18, 2019
“The current economic cycle is entering the twelfth year at a moderate pace and it is even possible that it will continue beyond 2020”, explains Ulrich Stephan, chief investment strategist for individuals and companies in the Deutsche Bank.Here’s the outlook for some asset classes: stock
“A repeat of the strong positive performance of stocks next year seems very unlikely, just like a stock market crash,” said portfolio manager David Wehner of asset manager Do Investments.Thanks to the continuation of the flexible monetary policy of the major central banks, new record levels are still expected.”By the end of 2020, however, we believe it is likely that stock prices will again be lower than at the end of the previous year.” obligations
“The simplest recommendation for the coming year is: get out of the euro bond market,” said Michael Winkler, head of investment strategy for the Cantonal Bank of St.Gallen in Germany .”Negative feedback just doesn’t make sense.” Peter Becker, bond expert at Capital Group, said that bonds from countries like France, Italy and Spain benefited from the renewed asset purchases from the European Central Bank (ECB) .
They are the largest issuers of debt securities.change
The “double deficit” in the United States in households and in the current account is a long-term burden for the dollar, says Christian Apelt, analyst at Helaba.
As U.S.growth will also weaken in 2020, he expects the euro exchange rate to reach around 1.25 compared to $ 1.10.”The pound is valued cheaply,” added Apelt.”If the UK leaves the EU in an orderly manner and there are no distortions during negotiations on future relations with the EU, there is potential for Appreciation here.” precious metals
“We expect the price of gold to reach $ 1,650 per troy ounce,” said Luca Paolini, chief investment strategist for asset manager Pictet.”Most real interest rates are still negative.” The expected depreciation of the dollar will also benefit the precious metal.”In addition, many investors have almost no gold in their portfolios.” The precious metal currently costs around $ 1,478.industrial metals
Experts at Bank UBS see the price of copper at the end of 2020 at $ 6,300 per tonne, just under 2% above the current level.
The poor outlook for the global economy has dampened demand.However, course reseters could be used to start.crypto currencies
“The main event for Bitcoin in 2020 is the” halving “in May,” says analyst Timo Emden of Emden Research.This is how experts describe the automatic halving of the amount of Bitcoin, which can be created in a certain period of time by “mining” and aims to prevent inflation.Overall, however, there is no momentum for the oldest and most important cyber currency, adds Emden.
Investors were therefore still waiting for a listed Bitcoin fund (ETF) and clear rules from financial regulators.
The cryptocurrency “Balance” planned by the online network Facebook is not yet on the table, but will come later and only in a modified form.gross
“The price of Brent oil should continue to fluctuate around 60 dollars a barrel (159 liters) in 2020”, predict the Commerzbank experts in raw materials.”With a larger downward spread, Saudi Arabia would react with a further reduction in production, with a larger upward spread, of additional oil from non-OPEC countries, particularly the United States, would enter the market.
” agricultural products
“World wheat production is forecast to be significantly higher in 2019/20 than in 2018/19 and possibly surpass the record of two years ago,” said Michaela Kuhl, analyst at Commerzbank..For corn, demand will exceed supply for the third consecutive year.He therefore expects the price to go up to $ 4.10 a bushel from the current level of around $ 3.89.Soybeans would likely rise to $ 9.50, from around $ 9.27 a bushel, also due to a shortage of supply.
The same goes for sugar and coffee.Experts do not agree on cocoa.
(Reuters).
