Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 12/10/2019 and trading recommendation Dollar has plenty of opportunities to continue growth (we expect the EUR/USD…Forex Analysis: 10 Dec 2019, 05:12 UTC+00 Relevance: up to 11.12.19 – 05:00 UTC+00 Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 10/12/2019:
Crypto Industry News:
Istanbul’s Ethereum Hard Fork took place as planned and saw the light of day with block 9069000.Co-founder Ethereum Vitalik Buterin personally congratulated the node that brought the transition block to the new chain.The market did not pay attention to Istanbul, and Ethereum gained little after the hard-fork.One of the most anticipated updates seems not to have as much impact on the market as originally expected.The announcement of Istanbul’s success was not accompanied by a high volume.Currently, several hours after the event, Ethereum is valued at slightly over $145.In the Ethereum network, there will be even more forks in the future.
The problem with them is that it requires node operators to update their mining protocols.
At the same time, it should be remembered that the Ethereum Foundation and investors, however, do not view this event like a hard fork.For them, this is one of many stages of the path that is taking great steps towards Ethereum 2.0.
Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has broken above the short-term trendline during the weekend and made a local high at the level of $150.96.Currently, the market is coming off the highs and is testing the breakout from above (around the level of $145.00).
From a wider perspective, the market is still trading inside of a narrow range located between the levels of $151.37 – $142.24 and the market participants are waiting for a breakout from this range.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WS3 – $135.22
Trading recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down.All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the downtrend.When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another wave up.Show full picture analytical expert: Sebastian Seliga InstaForex Group © 2007-2019 Published: 10 Dec 2019, 05:12 UTC+00 10 Dec 2019, 03:48 UTC+00 Views today 2288 10 Dec 2019, 03:48 UTC+00 Views today 2290 10 Dec 2019, 17:58 UTC+00 Views today 2360 10 Dec 2019, 07:51 UTC+00 Views today 2474 10 Dec 2019, 08:04 UTC+00 Views today 2018 0 Low
A survey of the current state of the business sector in Australia .
Based on a survey of hundreds of small and large sized companies, the National Australia Bank delivers monthly comprehensive quarterly reports.
This comprehensive survey primarily provides insight into the state of the Australian economy and puts forth leading indicators that signal its future direction.Thus the survey’s findings, if unexpected, have the power to move markets directly.
The National Australia Bank releases both a monthly and quarterly report.The quarterly report is more comprehensive, surveying around 1000 small to large non-farm firms.The quarterly report provides greater detail on the data as well as a short to mid-term outlook of Australia .Because of seasonal volatility and government protections the survey only excludes the farm sector.00:30 2.4% q/q; -3.7% y/y Medium
Tracks changes in housing prices in Australia’s eight provincial capital cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart, Darwin, and Canberra.The headline number is the weighted average percentage change from the previous quarter.
Like any price index, the housing price indexes measure inflationary pressures, in this case specifically from the housing sector.The headline number is the quarterly percentage change in the index.01:30 4.5% High
Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items.
The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures.01:30 -1.4% Medium
Measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process.Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation.Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services.
The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.
A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures.Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation.A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.
The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.
Notes: The PPI records prices at various stages of production: raw goods, intermediate goods and finished goods.Though intermediate and crude goods prices do provide insight for future inflationary pressure, it is the price of finished goods that generates most interest for market participants.
The finished goods data is able to gauge price pressure before the goods reach the retail market.02:45 RBA Assistant Governor Michele Bullock Speaks Low
Michele Bullock is the Assistant Governor (Financial System) at the Reserve Bank of Australia.Michele Bullock was appointed to her current position in October 2016.In this role she is responsible for the Bank’s work on financial stability, including production of the twice-yearly Financial Stability Review, as well as the Bank’s oversight of the payments system.
She is a member of the Bank’s senior policy committees, Deputy Chair of the Payments System Board, member of Chief Executive Women (CEW) and executive sponsor of the Bank’s employee resource group for accessibility.06:00 -37.9% Low
This is a report which measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers.06:30
Change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government.07:45 0.4% Low
Measures the level of production of French industries.
French Industrial Production tracks relative changes in the production of goods, excluding energy and food, whether they are sold domestically or abroad.The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous quarter or year.
Industrial Production is highly sensitive to the business cycle, and so can forecast changes in employment, earnings, and personal income.Consequently, Industrial Production is considered a reliable leading indicator of the overall health of the French economy.9:00 -0.3% m/m; -2.4% y/y Low
Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Italy.
Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of Italian industrial activity.
High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion.However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.
The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much.The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.
9:00 1390bln Medium
The volume of loans granted in yuan during a month.The indicator’s growth means stronger activity.The sharp increase of the indicator may triger tighter monetary policy.9:30 0.0% m/m; 0.0% 3m/3m High
The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services.GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being.While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.
Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency.At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates.
Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way: GDP = C + I + G + (EX – IM) where C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly.The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.9:30 0.1% m/m; -1.3% y/y Medium
A measure of the manufacturing output of the energy sector, factories, and mines.Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of UK industrial activity.Industry accounts for about a quarter of the overall GDP.Because industrial production accounts for most of the volatility in the GDP, foreknowledge of trends in manufacturing go a long way in forecasting UK output.
High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Pound.
However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.In times of inflation the Bank of England may raise interest rates to control growth.9:30 0.2% m/m; -1.2% y/y Medium
The UK Manufacturing Production index is compiled by the National Statistics Office and measures the level of manufacturing output.It is an important indicator since it measures growth in the country’s manufacturing industry which is a major component of Gross Domestic Product.A low reading is considered bearish for the Sterling.9:30 -14.5bln Medium
The difference between imports and exports of goods.Visible Trade differentiates itself from Trade Balance because it does not record intangibles like services, only reporting on physical goods.
Because Britain’s economy is highly trade driven, Visible Trade data can give critical insight into developments in the economy and into foreign exchange rates.9:30 -2.3% m/m; -2.1% y/y Low
Index demonstrates the situation in the construction sector; it shows output of products and business activity sizes in this sigment of economy.9:30
The index tracks activity in services sector.10:00 10.7 Medium
A German Firm, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany ‘s economic situation.They ask experts to evaluate the current situation and to predict the future direction of the economy.For all components of the survey, responses are restricted to positive, negative, or unchanged.
This simple structure allows the survey to be quick and efficient in terms of turnaround time, as well as easy to understand and interpret.
Experts are asked for a qualitative assessment of the direction of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and the stock market in the next six months.Thus the indicator provides a medium-term forecast for the German economy.
Technical Note on Headline Number : The results of the survey are always presented as the difference between those experts that optimistic and those are pessimistic.
For instance if 25 percent of analysts expect improvement, 35 percent expect decline, and 40 percent expect no change, the headline figure is -10.10:00 -19.9 Medium
A German Firm, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany ‘s economic situation.They ask experts to evaluate the current situation and to predict the future direction of the economy.For all components of the survey, responses are restricted to positive, negative, or unchanged.
This simple structure allows the survey to be quick and efficient in terms of turnaround time, as well as easy to understand and interpret.
Unlike the Economic Sentiment Indicator which looks into the future direction of the economy, the Current Situation Indicator focuses on the results of the survey that relate to the current health of the German economy.Expert opinions on whether the current situation is improved, worsened, or unchanged are summarized as the number of positive responses minus the number of negative responses.A higher headline figure indicates a stronger economy and better business climate.
Technical Note on Headline Number : The results of the survey are always presented as the difference between those experts that optimistic and those are pessimistic.For instance if 25 percent of analysts expect improvement, 35 percent expect decline, and 40 percent expect no change, the headline figure is -10.10:00 11.2 Medium
The Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about the economic situation.Eurozone ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment Assesses future economic expectations for the whole Eurozone.The results are summarized as the number of positive responses minus the number of negative responses.
A higher headline figure indicates a positive expectation for Euro-zone economy.
Technical Note on Headline Number : The results of the survey are always presented as the difference between those experts that optimistic and those are pessimistic.For instance if 25 percent of analysts expect improvement, 35 percent expect decline, and 40 percent expect no change, the headline figure is -10.11:00 104.7 Low
Survey of small businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including labor markets, inventories and sales, capital spending, inflation, earnings and wages, and credit markets.13:30 -0.2% Low
Measures the output produced for each hour of labor worked.
Non-farm Productivity is considered the most accurate gauge of overall business health, given farming data’s small and volatile contribution to GDP.
To businesses, higher productivity indicates efficient use of employees and capital.Given that labor costs make up more than two-thirds of the average businesses expenses, high productivity can allow a firm to fulfill consumer demand with less labor costs, boosting profitability.
Thus trends in this report can precede investment spending and business growth.Also if prices for raw materials increase, improved productivity can save a firm from passing higher costs to the end consumer.Given such business effects, healthy productivity growth bodes well for the economy as a whole, signalling increased production capability and business growth.
Productivity is reported as output per hour per worker, categorized into industry figures.
On a Technical Note: The Non-Farm Productivity number is generated by comparing the number of hours worked (Employment Situation report) to Gross Domestic Product data.13:30
The indicator reflects the quarterly changes in salaries and other income received by working population.18:01 1.809%; 2.49 Low
10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator.Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.23:30 97.0; 4.5% Low
Consumer Sentiment (or Consumer Confidence) measures the level of confidence households have in economic performance.
Generally rising consumer confidence acts as a precursor to higher consumer expenditures which drive economic expansion.23:50 0.2 Medium
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed large manufacturers.Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism.23:50 0.1% m/m; 0.0% y/y Low
A Japanese index that measures the prices of goods created by firms at the producer and wholesaler level in Japan.The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) tracks changes in supply side prices within the Japanese economy.Changes in the CGPI often precede changes in the overall Consumer Price Index, as input values determine the overall retail values of the consumer goods.Thus, a large increase in the domestic CGPI will lead to a large increase in the overall CPI.
Wednesday, 11 December 2019 82.1% Low
Capacity Utilization measures the extent to which Canadian manufacturing companies make use of their installed productive capacity (factories and machinery).Capacity Utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy, rising when the economy is vibrant, and falling when demand softens.High capacity utilization also exerts inflationary pressures as scarce resources are in higher demand.However, it may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants, that promote growth in the future.13:30 0.2% m/m; 2.0% y/y High
CPI assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes consumer pay for a set of items.CPI serves as the headline figure for inflation.Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services.
In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power.
The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical American household might purchase.An increase in the Consumer Price Index indicates that it takes more dollars to purchase the same set basket of basic consumer items.
Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship.To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates.However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI’s set.
Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for.Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.
The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year.The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.
On A Technical Note: The CPI includes over 200 categories of goods and services included, divided into 8 main groups, each with a different weight: Housing, Transportation, Food, Medical Care, Education and Communication, Recreation, Apparel, and Other Goods and Services.13:30 High
CPI Excluding Food and Energy – United States
The CPI is also reported excluding food and energy; two of its most volatile components.
These components are particularly sensitive to temporary economic factors like oil prices, natural disasters and seasonal affects.Consequently, CPI excluding Food and Energy provides a more stable figure, but at the cost of overlooking two significant sectors in the economy (together food and energy comprise nearly a quarter of the goods included in the CPI).
The figure is the monthly percent change in the index.
15:30 -4856K Medium
The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis.The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly.The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors.Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.19:00 1.75% High
The main interest rates settled by the FOMC are responsible for driving inflation in accordance with the monetary policy adopted by the FED.
One of the rates in mind is the overnight borrowing rate and the Federal Reserve’s Cash Rate Target (FRCRT).The latter affects interest rates for consumer loans, mortgages, bonds or others.The actual changes to the interest rates have a direct impact on the US dollar.However, the market expectation, in respect to future monetary policy, plays a part that is even more significant for the market.In such circumstances, any indirect information that provides hints to future FED monetary policy, and thus influences the market expectations in respect to the interest rates, may have a significant impact on the US currency.
Typically, an increase of the interest rates, or expectations of such an increase, provide fundamental support to the US dollar.The lower interest rates may have a negative impact on the US currency.19:00 FOMC Statement High
The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release.It’s these changes that traders focus on.
It’s the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes.Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.19:00 FOMC Economic Projections High
Economic projections are collected from each member of the Board of Governors and each Federal Reserve Bank president four times a year, in connection with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) usual two-day meetings (typically held in January, April, June, and November).
Several charts and a table that summarize those projections are released at the Chairman’s press conference within hours of the meeting.Three weeks later, more detailed information is provided in the Summary of Economic Projections, which is published with the minutes of the FOMC meeting.
19:00.