After the 2016 election, the mainstream media and pollsters were filled with remorse for horribly misreading the national mood and wrongly predicting a Hillary Clinton win.How had they missed the mark so badly? Yet after a similar media failure in this year’s midterm elections? Mostly crickets so far.If the media really want to improve their credibility and serve the interests of democracy, they need another round of introspection.What’s needed is serious and permanent changes in the way the media cover elections — especially those involving former president Donald Trump.The Trump challenge starts Tuesday night, when the former president is expected to announce his presidential campaign for 2024.The media would be wise not to cover the news conference live, which will almost certainly include a host of election conspiracy theories.Indeed, as a general rule, the media must be especially clear whenever Trump lies (virtually every time he opens his mouth).
They should continue to frame headlines to underscore when his statements are untrue.
And while he might generate more clicks and attract more eyeballs, news outlets should not devote any more time or space to him than other top candidates.They dare not make the mistake as they did in 2016, when they acted as a free communications team.
Beyond Trump, pollsters and reporters need to recognize that women aren’t a minority or interest group.
They are the average voter.Forget diners as the locale for interviews with voters; go to yoga studios, school pickup lines, supermarkets and other places where ordinary women can be found.
Find out what their concerns are and what candidate qualities turn them off.If they do this, maybe next time the media will not underestimate women’s disgust with right-wing politicians.The media should also acknowledge error in the widespread narrative that Latinos are fleeing the Democratic Party.They are not.
Florida, where many Latinos live, has trended Republican, but nationwide, the majority of Latinos still vote Democratic.In Texas, Democrats held on to the state’s 28th Congressional District and flipped the 34th, both heavily Latino areas.
The border areas remained blue, thanks in part to Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke’s strong showing in the region.Media outlets also need to recognize that several other states with large Latino populations — Nevada, Arizona and Colorado — have been trending blue.
Better yet, the media need to recognize that “Latino” is almost meaningless because it encompasses people with vastly different backgrounds, experiences and perspectives.Treating an American born in Puerto Rico like a third-generation businessman with a Spanish surname but no Spanish fluency makes little sense.Next, it’s long past time to stop allowing polls to shape coverage.A shift away from horserace coverage, which is often wrong and utterly irrelevant, would allow the media to focus on candidates’ experience and character, major policy issues and voters’ attitudes and demographic changes.
Journalism should not be a Magic Eight Ball; it is about understanding and analyzing the recent past and present.Here’s an idea: cap the number of stories each month that cite or rely on polling.Instead, find gurus in each state who really understand the ins and outs of voting trends (e.g., Jon Ralston in Nevada), expand use of focus groups, track coverage in local media and watch where candidates are spending money.Pay attention when both sides appear to agree that an issue is working for one side.
(As I noted , in swing districts Democrats were leaning into the abortion issue while Republicans were scrubbing their positions on the issue from their websites.) The media won’t be better at guessing the outcome, but it will be better at explaining what is happening in a race.That’s the point, after all.Political coverage should also be more candid.It should acknowledge that the GOP is populated with cranks, conspiratorialists and election deniers who are at odds with the public.
If the media had done this throughout this year’s cycle, it might not have been so shocking that millions of Americans rejected these Republicans across the board.While they are at it, the media should cease its fixation with debates.Voters virtually never change their minds after such events, and the media’s own judgments about who “won” often runs contrary to voters’ perceptions.
Town halls and long interviews might provide just as much information to voters — without the cringeworthy news reviews.
Finally, the media should recognize where they succeeded.Some outlets put much effort into highlighting election deniers and elevating secretary of state races.This helped inform voters about previously obscure races.Armed with information about the threat election deniers pose, voters lo and behold rejected them in virtually every governor and secretary of state race in swing states.
None of this would help the media get predictions right, because the intention is to move the media out of the prediction business.In a country in which a handful of states and districts decide elections by extremely small margins, polling provides pundits a false sense of confidence — especially when aggregated with junk polls.Journalism can improve its image by leaving the prognostication to betting markets and tarot card readers.That should free up resources to focus on the threats still facing democracy.The latest: Democrats will keep control of the Senate after close races in Arizona and Nevada were called this weekend, but control of the House is still up in the air.Follow our live coverage for the latest news.Election results: Find election results for your state or see key House and Senate races .Here’s why election results are delayed and where votes are still being counted .
What the results mean for 2024: A Republican Party red wave seems to be a ripple after Republicans fell short in the Senate and are on track to narrowly win control in the House.Donald Trump is poised to announce his 2024 presidential campaign on Tuesday night, ignoring the advice of longtime allies who encouraged him to delay the announcement ..
