welcome everyone to what I honestly believe is our most important annual show on what’s gonna happen in the year ahead.And I don’t just mean the amazing amount of feedback and viewers that we get for this show.That’s the quantitative measure, and it is huge.I also mean the quality of the content, the forecast for the year ahead like, should you buy or should you sell shares on stocks? Should you buy or sell property? Really effects are decisions in our everyday life.This show.
How will India do? It affects our country.
How will India do the rest of the world in 2022? The politics macro global relations All the data and graphics in the show are researched and produced by the absolutely amazing Gucci Sharma and his team.Of course, Roaches is widely respected as one of the most brilliant minds globally, and they say that about him even when he is not in the room.We are very, very lucky to have Ruchi join us once again this year with all his findings on the top 10 trends of 2022.Now watch these fascinating findings.
Ideas found them amazing about what to expect over the next 12 months.I learnt a lot.
I am sure you will do so.Ruchi.Thank you very much for joining us and sparing the time, Thank you very much.Thanks.
Paranoid, delighted to be back.It’s been nearly a decade since we have had this annual tradition and happy that we’re carrying it along.Wonderful, Shabby has go straight into the graphics because we got so much to cover over the next 50 minutes.Actually, you know the first thing you always say and has respective for that because I would never do it.
Let’s look at how right and how wrong I was in the previous Syrian.See? So this was what you had said in the previous year.The top then trends of 2021.Let’s review and and get your perspective on what was right and what was wrong.So those of the top 10.
Now let’s focus on the first forecast that you made the trend that you made in January 2021 of what what was going to happen.Let’s see what you said about the first point.You said the global economy would be surging and the stock market would be sluggish and your review shows this growth surged.But actually, so did the stock market.Global growth was at 6% higher than most people expected, but you expected it.So you are different from the rest, and you are right.In terms of global growth of 6% is huge.
The stock market, the U.S.Surged that actually only two countries really search us and India stock market, which I guess is the U.S.
Is a huge part of the global stock market.The rest of the world, 8% more, less average and fascinating Roaches.Worst performing.According to you your data China stockmarket minus 23%.
2nd worse.And the worst is Pakistan minus 25%.Yeah, we looked at about 60 odd stock markets around the world for which data is available, and so India was in the top quartile.In fact, I think India’s exact rank wears around 13th or so of the 60 stock markets around the world in dollar terms.And it’s this, I guess, share coincidence that the two worst performing markets absolute worst China and Pakistan.
So something, I guess, a lot of independence would like to cheer about.Okay, let’s move quickly onto the second of your kind of top trains.Inflation, you said, is set to rise.And then what is the actual figures? Let’s have a look at the data that you actually produced to compare with your trend.
Global inflation was 4.8% while the rest of the economist globally thought it be 2.7.So we was spot on the averages.Yeah, I think that there was so much stimulus put into action.So much disruption to the supply chains brought about by the pandemic and the lock towns that inflation was finally set to rise.For 40 years, we haven’t had an inflation performance of this kind in many countries, including the United States.Now, India’s case inflation behaved a bit better, especially the consumer price level.And so, in fact, India’s inflation rankings improved on a global basis, like after a long time, India’s inflation rankings were similar to the rest of the world or something in the middle.
But I think that the key thing here is that inflation really surged a lot more than people expected in 2021 right, Your the third trendy said that global interest rates would increase sharply.And, of course, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall are look.It was interest rate.They really shot up the house that compared this is developing countries in particular, and government bond prices fell by 5.8%.
That’s the worst since 1999.Yes, very rare for government born prices to fall because it’s a very safe investment.There are very few and far between years.The government born prices fall typically, as you know, government want one.Prices fall When interest rates rise, they move in the opposite direction.And so as interest rates rose sharply around the world, particularly in emerging markets, with long term interest rates rising even in places such as India, where the two year paper, the 10 year paper, all those interest rates rose from a very low base quite sharply bond prices fell.
So yes, it was a terrible year to be a bond investor in 2021 right? You’re next forecast was you said buy property.This is the prices are going to go up.Really, And if you look in it, in fact, house prices.According to you rose at the fastest rates.There is 40 years they talk about global house prices.India didn’t follow that pattern.
It went down.But in towards the end of 2021 in house prices in India has.Suddenly, it’s been a terrible year for the property markets in India.As we know over the last decade, with property prices Bailey rising but finally basing sales are picking up, supply has been constrained in win, trees are falling, and in the major cities prices are beginning to rise.
So, yeah, it’s been a very good time to buy property around the world.
In fact, almost too good.It’s taking many people to think the property prices are becoming unaffordable.And that’s a major political issue brewing in many countries.
In India’s case, not so is yet because the affordability still remains relatively good for many people.Even though I know that everybody wants it to be cheaper.But generally property prices have been quite low, but I think that they started to rise, are set to rise further in the years ahead, Die of fifth, Pointy said.The U.S.Dollar will decline and then you produce data to cheque, whether your right around, let’s see what you said.Basically, the dollar went up a little bit.But just look, it’s relatively.
And when you talk about decline, it always relative prices.Bitcoin went up 59% while the dollar just 6%.
Amazing difference.Yet that’s the point I made on the show last year that there is no rail alternative to the U.S.Dollar in terms of any other currency.The Chinese currency has not been able to take the space.The euro is still embattled by a lot of its internal problems.
So when there is no on tentative to the U.S.Dollar in yet, people are searching for an alternative crypto currency such as Bitcoin are likely to emerge as some sort of an alternative.And that’s what happened last year.
It was a great year to be investing in crypto currencies.In fact, the number of crypto currencies in the world has exploded.There are nearly 8000 crypto currencies in the world now, compared to just over 4000 year ago.Bitcoin is what we hear a lot about the nets or AM, but explosion in Cryptocurrencies is telling you that people are really searching for alternatives out there to the U.S.
Dollar.Given that no other currency is being able to fill that space is, you know, one of the most surprising trends that you talked about a focus that he talked about in January 2021 was about commodity prices, which everybody thought this the end of commodity prices, then never going to rise in, he said.This year is going to be big a revival in commodity prices, and in fact, it’s turned out to be the best year for commodities for nearly 50 years.I mean, that is a huge length of time, and commodity prices rose 40%.Yeah.Hey, how did use the Four seasons have been? Why did it happen? Yeah, I think that what’s happening here is that and it’s something we speak about is one of the trains as well over the next few minutes is that there is so much pressure to cut new investment in oil in mining.A lot of it has to do with political pressure, the pressure for climate change, green politics, which is all fine.
We all want a better flying a environment and climate out there.But the problem is that cutting supply of commodities and yet the demand for commodities, whether it’s driving or it’s got to do with even building solar panels in the new green infrastructure, we still demand commodities.We have demand for commodities going up, supply constrained.It’s basic economics that you constrained the supply for all sorts of reasons.
But you still keep demanding.Prices are naturally bound to go up, and that’s what’s happening then in your next point and just going very quickly through last year, I don’t know how you can take an exam like this.I would avoid it like the plague.But the next one, you said developing countries around the world will stage a comeback, but that really didn’t quite happen.
There was a huge gap between the growth of developing countries in 2010, like 7% compared to 2% of rich countries.But now it’s almost neck and neck, so developing countries fell back right? Nor this has to really do with the slowdown taking place in China.That’s what’s deflating these numbers a lot, but in general it’s been a very disappointing number decade for the developing countries, and I was expecting some for of a reversal to begin in 2021.There are some signs of that happening outside of China, with the growth rates accelerating in places from Vietnam to Poland and other places, even in the Middle East.But generally it’s continues to be a disappointing time for growth in developing countries after the incredible promise they held a decade ago.We all know how the entire world was captured by bricks and those kind of concepts, and those stands so badly discredited now, right? Right now you’re eight point.You talked about the digital revolution spreading rapidly in 2021 the data shows how amazingly corrective of were.Look at mobile phone, knew sage of mobile data traffic.
It went up by 42% in the year.That’s huge, right? Unprecedented.Yeah, in fact, the kind of data we have consumed over the past year, I am told that is equivalent to the entire data that was consumed until the year 2016 in history.So, really, the way the digital revolution is spreading is quite fascinating.
There are more than four billion people with a smartphone now around the world that more than half of the entire population of the world.
And remember the processing power of a smartphone is similar to what used to be the processing power of the super computer when it first came out of the 19 seventies or something.So everyone’s work is looking around with a super computer in their pocket, and that opens up so many options for doing things digitally.See, Richie, I use those all computers, and we still produce macro models of the economy.
You guys one of these phones wide, you have no excuse anyway, less well wanted or second last one, the rise of new challenges to the big tech companies like Apple and Google.But if we look at last year, in fact, big tech companies was smashed in China but kept rising in the U.S.Is look at that amazing graft that you produce Roaches.
U.S.A.Big tech companies taken a bigger and bigger share of the market, but the challengers have also done well.
They have gone up 15% but not quite as much as the big takers.And in China, the big tech companies just plummeted.Why, in China’s cases, a lot of concern out there about the way capitalism was going it was unbridled capital capitalism.I have shown data, in fact, earlier this year to show that in the year 2020 China produced many more billionaires and even the United States, the Chinese.
The Chinese government is concerned about the kind of concentration of power that’s happening in its corporate sector, is concerned about wealth, inequality and of course it wants to maintain a very strong state.So therefore, we saw the Chinese government really cracked down on the tech sector very hard in China, which is what hurt the stock prices and the entire market valuation of the Chinese tech sector, and told that the Chinese tech sector last year lost nearly $2 trillion in there, a value which is both be half their value, was wiped out in one year.So that shows up in the fact that it was a very poor year for the performance of the Chinese stock market for the Chinese tech names in particular.But what surprises me is just how the U.S.Tech names the mega cap names.
They keep galloping ahead with a pill, now the first company to get to a trillion dollars.I remember in 2017, when Apple’s market cap has to cross the trillion dollars.
It was a sign of, you know, a fair amount of conversation, in fact, back then, but now it’s a touching $3 trillion.That is a surprise to me as to how long the winning streak of the U.S mega cap has lasted was spot on about end a big cheque in China.Finally, your 10th strength last year, January.Looking ahead of 2021.You said the end of television.
Thank goodness you said in brackets, except in India.What is the actual figures? If you look at your data again, his all riches data, which I am just reading out only country where TV did not really fall.That means the share of advertising revenues except ER was in India.
Everywhere else we fell, and this graph actually underestimate some man thief.Also, India stayed.Also, India’s a nice, sensible country in terms of, I guess, for a for the TV business.But I like an all the other countries.What we’re seeing is a major decline take place in TVs, share in the total ads, Bye in India’s cases, quite fascinating.
That has been, of course, an explosion in digital advertising, but it’s all commit the expense of print and share of television in the media.Pie has remained relatively stable at around 45%.So one of those things that worked out, I guess..