VanEck Crypto Monthly Recap For November 2023
Summary
– Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in November, reaching an 18-month high, driven by investor interest and the potential approval of US Bitcoin ETFs.
– Ethereum experienced significant growth, surpassing Bitcoin’s increase for the first time since July.
– Other notable performers in the cryptocurrency space included Coinbase equity, DeFi tokens, and layer 1 smart contract platforms like Solana and Avalanche.
In November, Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 due to investor interest and potential US Bitcoin ETFs, while Ethereum’s growth also outstripped Bitcoin’s.
Please note that VanEck may have a position(s) in the digital asset(s) described below.
In November, Bitcoin (
BTC-USD) outperformed the S&P for the third consecutive month, surging by 9% to reach an 18-month high.This uptrend was fueled by investors acquiring over $1 billion in EU-listed crypto ETNs and MicroStrategy adding another $600 million in spot Bitcoin.Notably, the imminent possibility of approval for various spot US Bitcoin ETFs in January is generating significant client interest and inquiries.
Simultaneously, the US dollar experienced its most significant decline (-3%) since November 2022, prompted by evident signs of weakness in the Q3 earnings reports of major retailers like Walmart (
WMT) and Target ( TGT) and a softer labor market.This weakness in the US consumer sector raised expectations that the Fed might implement rate cuts as early as Q1.Separately, concerns about a disorderly wind-down of Binance ( BNB-USD) diminished after the largest crypto exchange reached a settlement with the US DOJ, ensuring its continued operation.
In a notable shift, Ethereum (
ETH-USD) outpaced Bitcoin with a 12% increase, marking the first time since July.The MVIS Digital Assets small-cap token (MVDASC) experienced a remarkable turnaround, soaring from negative year-to-date returns in mid-October to a year-end gain of +55%, although still trailing behind the +85% YTD gains of large-cap cryptocurrencies.Notable performers in the space included Coinbase ( COIN) equity (+62%), DeFi tokens (+41%), and layer 1 smart contract platforms like Solana ( SOL-USD,+54%) and Avalanche ( AVAX-USD, +89%).Centralized exchange tokens such as BNB lagged.
Reflecting our ho-ho- hopes and expectations for a very strong 2024 for Bitcoin and other decentralized smart contract platforms, we are releasing separately our Crypto Predictions for 2024 blog.
|November||YTD||1-Year|
|Coinbase||63%||254%||89%|
|MarketVectorTM Decentralized Finance Leaders Index||41%||75%||18%|
|MarketVectorTM Smart Contract Leaders Index||28%||72%||8%|
|MarketVectorTM Infrastructure Application Leaders Index||22%||89%||35%|
|MarketVectorTM Media & Entertainment Leaders Index||18%||-17%||-53%|
|Ethereum||13%||70%||31%|
|Nasdaq 100 Index ( |SP500, SPX
Smart Contract Platforms
Blockchain Share of Daily Fees
|Source: |
After a strong October (+21%), layer 1 blockchain tokens rose another 28% in November.
Activity on blockchains and prices tend to be reflexive, resulting in a spike in fees for nearly all blockchains.As prices go up, speculators increase their activity, leading to more on-chain fees and increased demand to buy blockchain tokens to pay for gas.The principal winner in fee-generating usage was Bitcoin, whose fee share increased from 12.5% to 27.5%, with fees averaging around $4.5m per day.Ethereum maintained its market share of fees month-to-month, averaging around $7.6M.
Ethereum activity was high enough in November that, once again, Ethereum became deflationary.In November, around 46k ETH were burned, and this ETH was worth $93M at the time of writing.Ethereum also saw an interesting blog post by a co-founder and spiritual leader, Vitalik Buterin, where he discussed resurrecting the Ethereum scaling solution Plasma and incorporating ZK-proofs to make Plasma more functional.While an informative post, Vitalik’s writing seems to correspond to an uptick in interest in alt-L1s with execution scaling embedded in their roadmaps, whereas Ethereum does not.Additionally, Ethereum validator entity Bitcoin Suisse saw 100 of its validators slashed for 1 ETH on November 14 due to inactivity, and this has catalyzed Ethereum community discussion.
Most of the Ethereum community expressed concern on social media that there is a need to ensure slashing is applied to validators who act maliciously, not those who suffer outages outside their control.
November L2 Daily Average Fees
|Source: |
Ethereum L2s had an interesting month as increased activity translated to higher fees across the board.Notably, the top fees producing L2 of November was Starknet, who averaged $199k in daily fees, barely surpassing Arbitrum at $191k and ZKSync at $178k.Part of the driver for Starknet is renewed speculation of a coming $STARK token airdrop that would accrue pro-rata for usage of Starknet.Interestingly, fees on Linea exceeded both Base and Optimism.
A controversial addition to the L2 space is a project called Blast, which has attracted over $612M in just over a week.Blast, a project created by the Blur team, is contentious because it lacks a functioning chain or even a testnet.Blast is simply a 3/5 multisig wallet whose only functionality is to take deposits and stake them on Ethereum yield-generating projects like Lido.This is interesting because it brings up the fact that L2s, with ~$14B in deposits, are capital inefficient as those funds effectively sit on their bridges without earning any yield.This could spark an interesting movement to make those idle funds more dynamic in earning fees.
Amid the uptick in L2 activity, OKX announced it will launch its own L2 to Ethereum built using the Polygon (
MATIC-USD) CDK.
Kraken noted publicly that it is considering launching its own L2 like Coinbase’s Base.Polygon also made headlines by partnering with Ethereum-rival NEAR to build zkWASM technology and announced a $90M incentive program called Polygon Village for developers to build on Polygon.
Outside of Ethereum, the Cosmos community experienced further drama as controversial Prop 848 passed.The proposition, which cuts ATOM’s maximum inflation from 20% to 10%, received great pushback from both the Cosmos validator community and Cosmos co-founder Jae Kwon.In a post on Twitter, Jae Kwon threatened to hard-fork the Cosmos and airdrop a new Cosmos token to community members.This new Hub would effectively compete with Cosmos and cleave the community into separate projects.
Hopefully, sparking renewed interest in the Cosmos amongst traders, the dYdX (
DYDX-USD) chain went live with perpetual futures trading on its beta release.To support dYdX, CCTP has finally arrived on Noble, allowing Ethereum USDC holders to bridge their USDC to Noble and receive native USDC, which could be moved to dYdX.
AVAX (+85.9%)
Avalanche Daily Fees vs Daily Active Addresses
|Source: |
Avalanche’s AVAX token was a top performer in November, having a mammoth (+85.9%) rally.
Avalanche has made major efforts to attract financial entities to use its blockchain of blockchains and focused on the tokenization of off-chain assets.In November, those efforts partially paid off as Ava Labs partnered with JP Morgan’s Onyx and Apollo Global (
APO) to build a proof of concept with the Monetary Authority of Singapore using Avalanche Evergreen Subnets.This will allow Onyx Digital Asset to access WisdomTree funds tokenized on an Avalanche subnet blockchain.
Adding fuel to this price momentum for AVAX, Republic, a crypto-focused investment firm, will launch a tokenized fund called Republic Note on Avalanche.
Republic Note attracted more than $30M in investment at launch.Other positive news for Avalanche included the launch of blockchain game Shrapnel’s token $SHRAP, which many speculate could be the first blockbuster crypto game.
In November, Avalanche also saw a spike in fees that resulted in a 600% month-to-month increase in blockchain fees as transactions on Avalanche’s C-chain increased as much as 20x on several days.Most of this activity, over 95%, was due to ASC-20 inscriptions.Like Bitcoin inscriptions, these allow users to add any data to AVAX tokens using the extra data space in each transaction referred to as Call Data.While the flurry of activity was substantial, it was short-lived as transactions and fees reverted to their average after about a week.Remarkably, the spike in fee activity did not translate into a substantial increase in usership as daily active addresses peaked around 79k, which is just over double Avalanche’s average over the past two months.
Solana (+51.2%)
Solana DEX Volume
|Source: |
The month of November began amid Solana’s annual developer conference, where several fascinating announcements and technology demonstrations took place.
The founder of Solana, Anatoly Yakovenko, re-asserted Solana’s competitive positioning as a low-latency, high-throughput chain that would scale to meet the needs of hundreds of millions of users.To meet this vision, Kevin Bowers of Jump Trading introduced his team’s new Solana client, Firedancer, which was capable of processing more than 6M TPS using Solana’s existing network.To take advantage of this broad leap in capabilities, Sling Money, Backpack NFT, and Star Atlas discussed each project’s respective potential for payments, verified decentralized exchanges, and gaming.
Token releases from several important Solana projects also helped Solana’s price.
These included dominant MEV staking entity Jito ($JTO), 80% market share DEX aggregate Jupiter ($JUP), and price oracle with nearly total market share of Solana price feeds, Pyth ($PYTH).Due to the price performance of Solana and the anticipated launch of these tokens, a positive feedback loop of price and volume occurred on Solana, which surged DEX volumes by 320% month-to-month and resulted in Solana fees increasing 100% and usership up 50% compared to October.
BNB (+1.0%)
Layer 1 Daily Users, Market Share
|Source: |
BNB price action for November was not encouraging, but this is primarily due to the announcement of the DOJ settlement against Binance and Binance’s CEO Changpeng Zhao (
CZ).Though the price of BNB initially rallied in relief after the news came out, the token began a downward spiral once it became clear that the charismatic and highly capable CZ would be leaving Binance, which may be a negative for the BNB chain’s future growth.
Likewise, speculation is bouncing around crypto circles that the DOJ or the regulators in the US may push new allegations against the highly centralized BNB chain.
The popular sentiment is that the US government will pursue a similar path in this case against Binance and BNB to what it did with BitMex.In the BitMex case, after presenting the entity’s founders with criminal charges, the US Government pressured the regulatory bodies in other countries to pursue action against BitMex.This supposition was partially confirmed on November 29 when the Philippines’ SEC argued that Binance was running an unregulated exchange and blocked access within the country to Binance.
BNB’s on-chain metrics further demonstrate a deterioration in usage.Unlike most smart contract platforms in November, BNB saw usership decline (-4%).Another negative statistic for BNB is that its TVL increased only (+6%), making it one of the worst among smart contract platforms in November.
Additionally, from the standpoint of market share of usership, BNB has been losing since early 2023, when it held 23%, and now it is down to around 16%.
APT (-0.4%)
Aptos (
APT-USD) once again has struggled to find its footing amid the broader bull market despite the enormous potential of its technology.This has translated into very poor activity on its blockchain in November as daily active addresses are down (-44%) month-to-month, and fees have decreased (-16%) since October.
This performance may be explained by the possibility that Aptos’s reputation is recovering from a 5-hour blockchain outage on October 18.Indicative of the tepid perception of Aptos, it only gained 19% in TVL compared to its main Move-based rival, Sui, who gained 129%.
Going forward, Aptos’ major challenge is attracting a strong developer and user community.While Move is a fascinating, high-potential programming language for smart contracts, its growth has been stunted by the general crypto developer exodus and a lack of community on Aptos.Additionally, Move lacks the deep pool of developer libraries and tooling available on Ethereum and even Solana.
As such, it will be an uphill climb for Aptos to get people excited about its ecosystem because it has not yet demonstrated that people will build applications that attract organic usage.
DeFi
Uniswap, Thorchain, & Curve 2023 Volume
|Source: DeFiLlama as 11/30/2023.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.|
The MarketVector Decentralized Finance Leaders index (MVDFLE) markedly outperformed $ETH in November, returning 41% as investors positioned themselves into tokens that will benefit from an increase in on-chain trading.Of the index components, Thorchain (
RUNE-USD, $RUNE) had the most impressive performance this month, +122%.
$RUNE’s outperformance can be attributed to the significant increase in activity that has occurred on the protocol, as the decentralized native asset settlement chain saw new yearly highs in volume for the second month in a row.The increase in volume has rocketed the protocol up the decentralized exchange rankings, with Thorchain now recording the third most volume of any protocol, behind Pancake Swap and Uniswap.Similarly, $UNI ( UNI-USD) saw an outsized return of 44% this month as the protocol maintained its strong market share.$MKR ( MKR-USD), $LDO ( LDO-USD), and $AAVE ( AAVE-USD) returned 13%, 29%, and 21%, respectively.$CRV ( CRV-USD) lagged behind the other decentralized exchanges, appreciating only 15% this month.$CRV’s underperformance can be explained by the protocol’s declining market share as the decentralized exchange saw only a slight increase in volume of 11%, significantly underperforming its peers Uniswap and Thorchain, which experienced increases in volume of 51% and 84%, respectively.
Metaverse and Gaming
The MarketVector Media and Entertainment Leaders index (MVMELE) returned 19% in November, slightly outperforming $ETH but seeing nowhere near the returns in DeFi, likely due to the continued lack of usage of metaverse ecosystems and value accrual to their respective tokens.
Of the top metaverse tokens, $APE (
APE-USD), $MANA ( MANA-USD), and $SAND ( SAND-USD) returned 19.3%, 19.4%, and 20% in November.While MVMELE didn’t see jaw-dropping returns this month relative to $ETH, many tokens in the gaming/metaverse sector performed extremely well.
This was likely a result of investors favoring smaller “moonshot” tokens that could have significantly more upside in a bull market than the higher-valued tokens that the index is composed of.This price action can be observed in tokens like $PRIME ( PRIME-USD), $AURY, and $ATLAS, valued significantly lower than the mainstream metaverse tokens and rallied an impressive 181%, 200%, and 223%, respectively.
NFTs
The NFT market experienced a notable surge in activity this month, with the total NFT volume witnessing a substantial growth of almost 200%, reaching $906 million.This uptick can be attributed primarily to heightened speculation of Bitcoin inscriptions, which rose by an impressive 2300% to $373 million, surpassing Ethereum NFT volume for the first time.Simultaneously, NFTs on Solana demonstrated a robust increase in volume, rising by 165% to $76.5 million.Solana NFT investors mainly acquired Mad Lads and Tensorians in anticipation of these collections establishing themselves as the blue-chip NFTs on Solana.
On the Ethereum side, $BLUR, the governance token of the leading NFT exchange by volume, observed a significant rally of 117%, reaching $0.50.This substantial movement can be attributed to the resurgence of NFT speculation and the unveiling of Blast, a new NFT-centric Layer 2 under development by the Blur team.Blast is set to focus on launching NFT-specific decentralized applications (dApps), such as NFT perpetual markets, and have low transaction fees to drive NFT trading.Furthermore, Blast intends to conduct an airdrop of the $BLAST token to participants in Blur Season 3.
Notably, Blur Season 3 will deviate from past seasons, as rewards will be evenly distributed between NFT traders and Blur stakers, departing from the previous practice of exclusively benefiting NFT traders on the Blur platform.Since the announcement, approximately 362 million $BLUR have been staked, constituting roughly 33% of the circulating supply.Additionally, Blast garnered over $600 million in deposits to the contract within its initial week post-deployment, with these assets unable to be withdrawn until February.Distinguishing itself from other Layer 2 rollups on Ethereum, Blast introduces a unique mechanism whereby deposited assets earn yield through rehypothecation on the backend.Specifically, $ETH is exchanged into Lido’s $stETH, and stablecoins are swapped into MakerDAO’s yield-bearing $sDAI, with the yield produced from these tokens automatically blasted to user’s wallets.
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DISCLOSURES
Index Definitions
S&P 500 Index: is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S.equities.The index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.
The MarketVector™ Centralized Exchanges Index (MVCEX) is designed to track the performance of assets classified as ‘Centralized Exchanges’.
Nasdaq 100 Index: is comprised of 100 of the largest and most innovative non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization.
MarketVector Decentralized Finance Leaders Index: is designed to track the performance of the largest and most liquid decentralized financial assets, and is an investable subset of MarketVector Decentralized Finance Index.
MarketVector Media & Entertainment Leaders Index: is designed to track the performance of the largest and most liquid media & entertainment assets, and is an investable subset of MarketVector Media & Entertainment Index.
MarketVector Smart Contract Leaders Index: designed to track the performance of the largest and most liquid smart contract assets, and is an investable subset of MarketVector Smart Contract Index.
MarketVector Infrastructure Application Leaders Index: is designed to track the performance of the largest and most liquid infrastructure application assets, and is an investable subset of MarketVector Infrastructure Application Index.
Coin Definitions
– Bitcoin (‘BTC’) is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
– Ethereum (‘ETH’) is a decentralized, open-source blockchain with smart contract functionality.Ether is the native cryptocurrency of the platform.
Amongst cryptocurrencies, Ether is second only to Bitcoin in market capitalization.
– Solana (‘SOL’) is a public blockchain platform.
It is open-source and decentralized, with consensus achieved using proof of stake and proof of history.Its internal cryptocurrency is SOL.
– Avalanche (‘AVAX’) is an open-source platform for launching decentralized finance applications and enterprise blockchain deployments in one interoperable, scalable ecosystem.
– Binance Coin (‘BNB’) is digital asset native to the Binance blockchain and launched by the Binance online exchange.
– Tron (‘TRX’) is a multi-purpose smart contract platform that enables the creation and deployment of decentralized applications.
– Polygon (‘MATIC’) is the first well-structured, easy-to-use platform for Ethereum scaling and infrastructure development.Its core component is Polygon SDK, a modular, flexible framework that supports building multiple types of applications.
– Arbitrum (‘ARB’) is a rollup chain designed to improve the scalability of Ethereum.It achieves this by bundling multiple transactions into a single transaction, thereby reducing the load on the Ethereum network.
– Optimism (‘OP’) is a layer-two blockchain on top of Ethereum.
Optimism benefits from the security of the Ethereum mainnet and helps scale the Ethereum ecosystem by using optimistic rollups.
– StarkNet (‘STRK’) is a permissionless decentralized Validity-Rollup (also known as a “ZK-Rollup”).It operates as an L2 network over Ethereum, enabling any dApp to achieve unlimited scale for its computation.
– Linea (LINEA) is a network that scales the experience of Ethereum with out-of-the-box compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine which enables the deployment of already existing applications.
– Base Protocol (‘BASE’) is a token whose price is pegged to the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies at a ratio of 1:1 trillion.
– NEAR Protocol (‘NEAR’) is a layer-one blockchain that was designed as a community-run cloud computing platform and that eliminates some of the limitations that have been bogging competing blockchains, such as low transaction speeds, low throughput and poor interoperability.
– Cosmos (‘ATOM’) is an interchain technology platform that enables the secure exchange of assets and data across decentralized blockchains.
– USD Coin (‘USDC’) is fiat-collateralized stablecoin that offers the advantages of transacting with blockchain-based assets while mitigating price risk.
– dYdX (‘DYDX’) is a decentralized exchange delivering key financial instruments to users such as perpetuals, margin and spot trading, as well as lending and borrowing.
– Jito Network (‘JITO’) is a major contributor to the Solana ecosystem through its JitoSOL liquid staking pool, and its collection of MEV products.
– Pyth Network (‘PYTH’) is an oracle solution for latency-sensitive financial data.Pyth Network is focused on finding a new and inexpensive way to bring this unique data on-chain and aggregating it securely.
– The Jupiter Project (‘JUP’) aims to make blockchain accessible and safe for everyone.Jupiter’s military-grade encryption helps ensure that user data is private and secure.
– Cardano (‘ADA’) is a public blockchain platform.It is open-source and decentralized, with consensus achieved using proof of stake.
It can facilitate peer-to-peer transactions with its internal cryptocurrency, Ada.
– Sui (‘SUI’) is a Layer-1 smart contract platform developed by Mysten Labs, which utilizes an object-centric data model intended to scale network throughput.
– THORChain (‘RUNE’) is an independent blockchain built using the Cosmos SDK that will serve as a cross-chain decentralized exchange (DEX).
– Uniswap (‘UNI’) is a decentralized exchange built on Ethereum that utilizes an automated market making system rather than a traditional order-book.
– Curve (‘CRV’) is a decentralized exchange optimized for low slippage swaps between stablecoins or similar assets that peg to the same value.
– Maker (‘MKR’) is the governance token of the MakerDAO and Maker Protocol — respectively a decentralized organization and a software platform, both based on the Ethereum blockchain — that allows users to issue and manage the DAI stablecoin.
– Lido DAO (‘LDO’) is a liquid staking solution for Ethereum and other proof of stake chains.
– Aave (‘AAVE’) is an open-source and non-custodial protocol to earn interest on deposits and borrow assets with a variable or stable interest rate.It also enables ultra-short duration, uncollateralized flash loans designed to be integrated into other products and services.
– ApeCoin (‘APE’) is a governance and utility token that grants its holders access to the ApeCoin DAO, a decentralized community of Web3 builders.
– Decentraland (‘MANA’) defines itself as a virtual reality platform powered by the Ethereum blockchain that allows users to create, experience, and monetize content and applications.
– The Sandbox (‘SAND’) is a blockchain-based virtual world allowing users to create, build, buy and sell digital assets in the form of a game.By combining the powers of decentralized autonomous organizations (‘DAO’) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), the Sandbox creates a decentralized platform for a thriving gaming community.
– Echelon Prime (‘PRIME’) is a Web3 ecosystem advancing the next generation of gaming.Echelon creates and distributes tools to encourage innovation in, and promote the growth of, novel gaming models and economies.
– Aurory (‘AURY’) is a next-generation studio building a universe of interoperable web3 games.Two original IPs were born from this universe, which are actively shaping the future of the Aurory player experience.
– Star Atlas (‘ATLAS’) is a massive multiplayer online game that takes place in a virtual gaming metaverse.
It is being built on Unreal Engine 5, allowing the game to feature cinema-quality, real-time environments.BLAST.
Risk Considerations
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities, financial instruments or digital assets mentioned herein.The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, tax advice, or any call to action.Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice.Actual future performance of any assets or industries mentioned are unknown.Information provided by third party sources are believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed.VanEck does not guarantee the accuracy of third party data.
The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck or its other employees.
Index performance is not representative of fund performance.It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Investments in digital assets and Web3 companies are highly speculative and involve a high degree of risk.These risks include, but are not limited to: the technology is new and many of its uses may be untested; intense competition; slow adoption rates and the potential for product obsolescence; volatility and limited liquidity, including but not limited to, inability to liquidate a position; loss or destruction of key(s) to access accounts or the blockchain; reliance on digital wallets; reliance on unregulated markets and exchanges; reliance on the internet; cybersecurity risks; and the lack of regulation and the potential for new laws and regulation that may be difficult to predict.
Moreover, the extent to which Web3 companies or digital assets utilize blockchain technology may vary, and it is possible that even widespread adoption of blockchain technology may not result in a material increase in the value of such companies or digital assets.
Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, and Web3 companies, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly.If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again.As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
Digital assets are not generally backed or supported by any government or central bank and are not covered by FDIC or SIPC insurance.Accounts at digital asset custodians and exchanges are not protected by SPIC and are not FDIC insured.Furthermore, markets and exchanges for digital assets are not regulated with the same controls or customer protections available in traditional equity, option, futures, or foreign exchange investing.
Digital assets include, but are not limited to, cryptocurrencies, tokens, NFTs, assets stored or created using blockchain technology, and other Web3 products.
Web3 companies include but are not limited to, companies that involve the development, innovation, and/or utilization of blockchain, digital assets, or crypto technologies.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.
As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money.Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
© Van Eck Associates Corporation.
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