Week On Wall Street: A Very ‘Different’ Investment Landscape
Summary
– The current anti-business backdrop will continue to be an overhang for the U.S.economy.
– Market participants are facing a complex scene, and I repeat “we have never been here before”.
– A “mild” recession doesn’t necessarily mean a short-duration BEAR market.
– Consumer sentiment remains at levels last seen during the Financial Crisis.
– We’re about to raise prices at my private investing ideas service, The Savvy Investor, where members get access to portfolios, market alerts, real-time chat, and more.Learn More »
“The most important consideration when investing in the stock market is the primary trend of the equity markets.” – Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters)
The Macro View
Investors have witnessed moves in the markets, with the general tone behind that trading reflecting the dovish mindset that has refused to go away in some circles.The Federal Reserve began raising rates last spring.Pretty much ever since that tightening program began, some analysts and investors have tried to drum up support for the idea that the central bank is about to switch course.First, halt the rate hikes, and then start to cut rates again.This talk helped to spark a significant bounce in the stock market from mid-June to mid-August – only to have the bulls overwhelmed and the market sent down to a fresh low for the bear cycle.
Risk-On Rally Mode
Now the buyers have taken the S&P 500 up ~10% from the October 12 bear market closing low at 3,577.That pop in the stock indices on decent earnings and seasonality has garnered plenty of bullish headlines, but the quick pullback has once again left the S&P 500 below its 200-day moving average.
The index has been stuck beneath that key technical indicator since April, showing the impact of inflation and Fed tightening on the stock market.There have now been three attempts to break the downtrend and move stocks higher.The BULLS have repeatedly been beaten back by the BEARS before they do more than recapture the same old ground that they already occupied several times in previous months.
Surprisingly year-to-date equity inflows are approaching $400 billion, good for the second best historically (behind 2021).Yet sentiment surveys continue to show everyone is Bearish.A divergence that is confounding to anyone close to the investment scene.I’ve also noted the positive divergences in the indices as well with the DJIA and the NASDAQ seemingly trading on two different planets.
Divergence is seen in the “internals” as well.There are now more stocks in the S&P 500 above their respective 200-day moving average (56%) than in mid-August (51%), even though the S&P is trading some 350 points lower today vs.then.
That speaks to the improvement in “the average stock” rather than any leadership from “the top of the market., and that is a good sign for the BULLS.Technology is being challenged and crypto will be happy if it can survive this brutal period.However, there are some areas of the market that are telling investors to “buy” in the near term.Confusing? I’m just getting started on explaining the confusion.
Inflation
Sorry, we just can’t discuss the MACRO situation without talking about this topic.
The biggest inflation components, Energy costs, wages, and rents, aren’t going to moderate fast enough to get prices anywhere near the Fed’s preferred 2% target.If last June marked the peak for inflation, it would be the first time in the past six periods of high inflation (dating to 1969) that inflation peaked (if it has) during an economic expansion.Other peaks came during recessions.
Here is another example of an investment scene that we have never experienced before.So, if history repeats itself, we have not seen a peak in inflation and that does not bode well for the economy or stocks.That might not seem possible now, but until we see more evidence investors better keep an OPEN mind.
Of course, there is another view that does make more sense.
One that confirms my view is that this economy is nowhere near “expansion” territory.It is in recession, and if that is the case then inflation probably has peaked.
Take your pick, neither one is good for the BULLS.
Yield Curve
The other perplexing data point in this inflation event is the yield curve.The curve “un-inverted” almost a year before the inflation peak in those five past cycles, and rapidly steepened afterward.That has not been the case this time around.It did just the opposite this year.
The entire yield curve structure is inverted, with the 3-month/10-year Treasury curve inverted by ~ 80 basis points.
While all of that is a head-scratcher, the Atlanta GDPNow forecast is calling for Q4 GDP to come in at 3.2%.Meanwhile on the fundamental MACRO front, outside of the consumer, the data reported in the last two months are at lows and in contraction.The composite PMI for November fell into contraction territory for the first time since the pandemic hit in 2020.The Services PMI data reported this week also had that “recessionary” look.
That bodes poorly for future earnings or valuations.Whenever Conference Board CEO confidence collapses (it’s currently at a record low), year-over-year earnings per share typically has followed that sour mood.
Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S.
equity strategist’s number is $195.At a 15 -17 P/E, that would represent a fair value of 2,925 – 3315 on the S&P.
This entire year has been a situation that warranted many analysts, including myself to repeatedly use the phrase “we’ve never been here before” to describe the investing environment.If that GDP forecast is anywhere close to being accurate, that is going to leave the Fed in a huge predicament in early ’23.My view is that “Higher for Longer” may indeed be the case, and that could surprise a market that continues to look for the FED to back off.
Reality Check
The data and the markets have given plenty of warnings about a continued increase in rates, yet many investors and traders are still acting as if rates have already hit their peak.
The yield on the 10-year note is down by 77 basis points from its recent high, even though the Fed is set to keep pushing short-term rates higher.Therefore we may not have seen the highs on the 10-year treasury.
Lots of folks are trying to celebrate the theme that the Fed is getting close to halting rate hikes.
They are ignoring what has already been done.We’ve seen how the yield curve inversion is already one of the most pronounced on record.Higher rates have only just started to come down hard on businesses and consumers.
The next group of retail sales data is going to be crucial to the Fed and that brings us back to the Consumer.
In addition to the Fed’s impact on the corporate world, the regulatory environment has been deemed the worst anti-business backdrop in the last 40 years.I’ve highlighted this issue since Q4 2021.It has nothing to do with politics but everything to do with what is and has transpired.
None of this is “opinion”.The signature policy “wins” to raise taxes, create numerous economic distortions via subsidies and tax credits, will raise not reduce inflation.
They also do not address the overregulation that makes building things in America so expensive.
In my opinion, the administration is also anti-trade, and pro-tariff, and is ignoring the country’s immigration problems which are set to burden social infrastructure with additional costs for years.All of that will stunt economic growth.
This is not easy to report, yet it’s the situation we find ourselves in today and as investors, we have to deal with the cards that are dealt.
Consumer and Recession
We may have some good news for consumers that could turn out to be bad news for investors.The NRF is forecasting retail sales in November and December will grow from 6% to 8% compared to last year.2021 seasonal sales grew 13.5%, shattering previous records, so this would be another new record.The early sales data is confirming that view.
I think consumer balance sheets are still OK, and consumers are still in this post covid euphoric, “enjoy life” spending mode and will continue to use their Credit Cards.Therefore, I tend to agree with the NRF, and I think the market sees it the same way.The Fed won’t be inclined to get “dovish” if we see solid retail sales.That keeps my “Higher for Longer” scene which everyone is tired of hearing about, cemented in place.
On the other hand, anything slower, indicating the consumer is pulling in would be a disappointment.
That will add to the notion that this recession might be longer than the consensus estimate of a “short and shallow” economic pullback.Then again, it may not matter to equity investors if this does turn out to be a “mild” recession.By all measures the recession in 2001 was classified as “mild”, yet the BEAR market in stocks lasted for 3 years.The S&P finally got back to the 2001 levels some seven years later.
In the Long term, I am always bullish because that is the primary trend over time.There are still a lot of unknowns in the near term.If we add up all of the issues the markets are facing, I still say “We have never been here before”.
Some analysts are acting as if they know exactly what is going to happen, but just as has been the case during other rally attempts earlier this year, that is more about adding a “feel good” moment and sugarcoating the hard analysis and reality.
That’s the Macro view but in the Short Run
This headline-driven market is going to be difficult to navigate.
A lot is going to depend on November’s CPI report on December 13th.That will be followed by the Fed’s decision when they wrap up their two-day FOMC meeting on the 14th.That is what to expect in the near term, but with all of the MACRO issues flashing a caution light, history tells us that equity bear markets don’t end with the final Fed hike; they end when earnings expectations bottom.
The Week On Wall Street
As the trading week began, the equity market came in at an interesting juncture.Despite declines on five of six trading days, thanks to a 3%+ rally on November 30th (Powell Speech), the S&P 500 entered trading on a positive note.
Similarly, the S&P 500 also closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since the spring.that gave “hope” to the BULL case for a year-end rally.
However, the BEARS will note the downtrend from the all-time high at the start of the year remains firmly in place.For every positive, it seems, there’s a negative, and the price action matches the uncertainty.
Monday saw all of the indices and sectors post losses, with the S&P closing down 1.8%, making it six out of the last seven trading days in the red.The wild swings in the market seem to be getting commonplace and the ‘breadth’ readings are following along.The S&P 500 saw net breadth run almost 9:1 negative, with over 400 more stocks down than stocks up; that’s a pretty rough showing for breadth, which four trading days before recorded a positive net breadth reading of more than 450.
As the market closed on Wednesday the S&P had stretched its losing streak to five straight days.The week ended with a positive session on Thursday and on Friday the much-anticipated PPI report was met with a ho-hum response until the last hour of trading.Buyers left the building and stocks slumped.
The S&P 500 closed down 3.3% for the week, and all of the other indices followed that trend.
In the 7 trading days following the “Powell” rally, the S&P 500 traded up, then down, and as of the close on Friday, lost 144 points or 3.3%.This landscape is very different than what investors have been accustomed to.Momentum switches on a dime and the market tramples both BULLS and BEARS who thought they had it figured out.
The Economy
I simply cannot see what data this “avoid recession”, and “soft landing commentary is looking at.Apparently, Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan CEO, is looking at the weight of the evidence and isn’t afraid to speak out and call the economic situation “poor”.
Real Retail Sales Usually Go Flat Into Recessions
Another point I’ve seen made by bulls lately is that real retail sales have stayed resilient and have not been dropping the way most would expect if we were headed for a recession.The only issue with that thinking is that before the last two major recessions, real retail sales didn’t collapse before the recession.
Instead, they just stopped going up and went flat into the period preceding the official start of the recession, just as they are doing now.Real retail sales have not made a new high since March 2021.
Usually, when the economy is expanding, retail sales are expanding right along with it.That is not happening right now and is another caution flag.
November US Services data signaled a faster contraction in business activity across the US service sector, according to the latest PMI data.The fall in output was solid overall and the second-sharpest since May 2020.
The seasonally adjusted final US Services PMI Business Activity Index registered 46.2 in November, down from 47.8 moving lower into contraction territory.
The ISM services index rebounded 2.1 points to 56.5 in November, largely unwinding the 2.3-point drop to 54.4 in October.This marks a 30th straight month in an expansionary territory as this data point isn’t aligned with any of the other economic data being reported.
However, the index has generally reflected a slower pace of growth from a historic peak of 68.4 in November 2021.Of note, October’s reading was the lowest since May 2020.The components were mixed.
Employment
The 4k initial jobless claims rise to 230k from 226k leaving claims closer to the 3-month high of 241k in late November, while continuing claims rose by 62k to a 10-month high of 1,671k.
Initial claims are entering December above averages of 229k in November, and 219k in October.
The rapid uptick in seasonally-adjusted claims has been consistent with the rise in claims during past recessions, meaning that even if claims are well below where they have been in the past, the speed and direction they have headed are worth keeping an eye on.
The climb for initial and continuing claims since September implies downside risk for the 180k December nonfarm payroll estimate.
Consumer
Consumer sentiment bounced 2.3 points to 59.1 in the preliminary December print, much better than forecast, after falling 3.1 points to 56.8 in November.The current conditions index improved to 60.2 after dropping 6.8 points to 58.8 in November.
Overall sentiment remains at a level last seen during the financial crisis.
Inflation
The November Producer Price Index: +0.3% vs.
+0.2% consensus and +0.3% prior.
7.4% Y/Y vs.+7.2% expected and +8.1% prior.
A majority of the increase in the index for final demand was attributable to an advance of 0.4% in prices for final demand services, up from +0.1% in October.About one-third of the November rise in the index for final demand services can be traced to prices for securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice, which jumped 11.3%.
Core PPI: +0.4% vs.+0.2% consensus and +0.1% prior.
+6.2% Y/Y vs.
+5.9% consensus and +6.8% prior.
This report continues to demonstrate what we’ve been talking about.While inflation may have peaked, it will hang around for a lot longer than most want to admit.
The Global Scene
Global Services PMI data were released this week.They match the poor recently reported Manufacturing PMIs.The downturn in global economic activity deepened during November.Output fell at the quickest pace in almost two and a half years following a similarly steep drop in new order intakes.Only Japan and India are not in contraction.
The J.P.
Morgan Global Composite Output Index fell to 48.0 in November, from 49.0 in October.The headline index has signaled contraction in each of the past four months.
The UK
The UK saw the fastest fall in new business volumes since January 2021 Discretionary spending was hit by the cost of living crisis.
The HIGH energy costs that we keep talking about are taking their toll.UK Services PMI Business Activity Index recorded 48.8 in November.
Eurozone
The seasonally adjusted Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index posted in sub-50.0 contraction territory for the fifth month in a row during the latest survey period.
Although November’s reading of 47.8 was up from 47.3 in October, and therefore indicated a softer rate of decrease, it marked the longest downturn in the euro area economy since the recession between 2011 and 2013 that was triggered by the eurozone debt crisis.
China
The seasonally adjusted Caixin China Business Activity Index dipped from 48.4 in October to 46.7 in November, to signal a third successive monthly reduction in service sector output.
The rate of decline was solid overall but remained weaker than the falls seen during the previous major wave of COVID-19 cases from March to May.
India
Rising from 55.1 in October to 56.4 in November, the India Services PMI Business Activity Index indicated a sharp increase in output that was the quickest in three months.
Japan
The au Jibun Bank Japan Services Business Activity Index posted at 50.3 in November, down from 53.2 in October.
The reading signaled a third consecutive improvement in output across the Japanese service sector but one which was only marginal and the weakest in the current positive sequence.
The Yield Curve
The 10-year treasury closed this Friday at 3.57%, down from the 4.07% close on November 1st.The inversion in the “2-10 spread” remains very steep with US 2-year yields now 76 basis points above rates on 10-year notes.
In the meantime, the Fed’s preferred method to measure recession risk is the 3M/10Yr spread.This inversion is also steepening week after week, and with the 3-month at 4.28% it is now 74 points above the ten-year.
No change from last week; EVERY series on the scale is now inverted.From the 1-month and above, every rate is higher than the 10-year Treasury.
I’ve noticed the “cheerleaders” hardly ever mention the yield curve.No matter what your views are on the messages from this data point, the steepness of these inversions is at historic levels.
Just because we haven’t been here before doesn’t mean we should dismiss the message.
Food For Thought
The Supreme Court has agreed to decide whether the Biden administration can cancel student-loan debt for millions of Americans, putting the matter on a fast-track timeline that should produce a final ruling by the end of June.
The justices set arguments on the matter for this winter, agreeing to the White House’s alternative request that the court takes up the case to decide whether the debt forgiveness is a lawful exercise of presidential power.
The move speeds up the legal process by allowing the administration to obtain a final ruling from the Supreme Court without first having to wait for additional proceedings in lower courts that could have dragged out the litigation for another year or longer
The program was deemed an unlawful exercise of presidential authority that would affect state revenues and tax receipts.The program has already been blocked at the Federal level based on a prior Supreme Court ruling that said only Congress has the power as the official representative of the people to make these decisions.
Why is that so important? IF struck down it negates the additional cost associated with the forgiveness program.Of course, the cost varies depending on who is doing the study but Wharton states the cost for the debt cancellation will cost approximately 500 Billion.
If this isn’t struck down and is allowed to proceed as planned, it becomes an added stumbling block in the Fed’s plan to kill inflation next year.
Inflation
There has been an ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine for years, and despite what the rhetoric suggests a war in this region is not capable of bringing the globe into recession.Make no mistake about the inflation dilemma.This problem started in D.C.and it continues with poor policy decisions continuing to add more speedbumps to the Fed’s fight to tame inflation.
As I’ve commented on since the first quarter of this year, the Russian/Ukraine war has no material effect on the global situation regarding grain shipments and oil, or much anything else.In my opinion, there is simply no way that this war has brought the global economy to its knees and on the brink of recession.It is, was, and always has been, a talking point that is based on hyperbole and fiction.
Over the past six weeks, Russian grain exports are up 42% from last year, and they are at RECORD highs.The same with Russian oil.
Russia’s seaborne crude exports averaged 3.4 million barrels per day (b/d) during the seven months since the war began.
That’s up 17% versus the same period in 2021.
The global inflation issue is a result of poor energy policy decisions that increased costs for ALL industries to produce goods across the world.PERIOD.
The Daily chart of the S&P 500 (SPY)
For the moment, the resistance levels that have capped the S&P 500 (and other indices) remain formidable.
As the week came to a close the index stabilized and traded sideways.Both the BULLS and the BEARS are looking for catalysts that will confirm their outlooks for the stock market.
Investment Backdrop
This headline-driven market is frustrating both the Bulls and Bears.Each new development is being judged on its potential impact on the inflation numbers and the future path of Federal Reserve action rather than if that development is necessarily “good” or “bad” for the economy.We saw that with the latest jobs report which was viewed as a negative since it signals inflation will stay elevated and the Fed will remain hawkish.
The opposite has been true when investors receive a negative report on the economy.
It’s understandable, and the majority of investors have realized they shouldn’t try to fight the Fed.That was the primary message in February when it was decided we needed to change our investment strategy and be more defensive.The market is, therefore, warranted in its obsession with inflation and the Fed.
Happiness is not a feeling the bulls have after the first week of December.The Nasdaq completed its worst first week to December since 1975.Weakness hasn’t just been isolated to the Nasdaq and growth stocks either.
While some sectors have done worse than others, they’re all down over the last week as Powell’s speech last week at the Brookings Institution fades into the rearview mirror.
Leading the way lower, Energy has plunged over 6.5% as weaker oil and natural gas prices finally catch up to the sector.There’s no need to feel bad for Energy, though, as it’s still up over 52% YTD and is more than 53% ahead of the next closest sector (Utilities).Other sectors that have been under pressure since December started were Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Technology, and Communication Services.
At the other end of the performance spectrum, Health Care (+0.45%) and Utilities (-0.38%) get the participation trophies as they’re both close to the flatline for the month.As bad as December has been to start, one potential bright spot is that every sector except for Energy and Consumer Discretionary remains above its 50-day moving average, so if you want to take the optimistic approach, the last week can still be considered a digestion of the rally off the October lows.
From a technical perspective, there isn’t anything ‘new’ in the charts to give us a clue as to what is next.I hate to keep using these same cliches but once again we see the indices at a crossroads.There are many conflicting signs present and in the short term, it is going to come down to a headline or two.
Thank you for reading this analysis.
If you enjoyed this article so far, this next section provides a quick taste of what members of my marketplace service receive in DAILY updates.If you find these weekly articles useful, you may want to join a community of SAVVY Investors that have discovered “how the market works”.
Bifurcated Market
I have seen some argue that the market is stronger than it looks because the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently hit a new six-month high and was only about 7.5% from its previous all-time high.
I’ve seen prominent technicians comment that it was “something you don’t see in a downtrend.” I have some thoughts on that and issued a Special Report to members that covers the Bifurcated stock market and what it means for the overall market heading into 2023.
Small Caps
While investors focus on the headlines and the big-cap indices, the Russell 2000 small-cap index will play an important role in how the general market exits 2022 and enter 2023.Interpreting the market’s message correctly will continue to play an important role in the weeks ahead.
If you find what is presented here every week to be useful, the analysis and presentation to members of my service are complete with charts that zoom in on the critical pivot points for each group.A picture is worth a thousand words.
Sectors
Energy
The Energy ETF (XLE) has been the big winner this year, and in the last two weeks has given back ~9% of the year’s gains.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the XLE drift to the next support level, and then gather momentum to make a new run at the highs.
Energy has been the best sector this year and I see no reason to abandon the group.Despite any near term technical issues, the Pros outweigh the Cons in a sector that is in its own BULL market.
Natural Gas
The Nat Gas ETF (UNG) rallied 12% in five trading days, then fell 29% in the next eight days to levels last seen in March.UNG finished the week on a three-day winning streak adding back ~16%.I continue to HOLD my position and it’s obvious this ETF is for those that have a HIGH tolerance for RISK.
Financials
The Financials (XLF) traced out the same pattern as the DJIA.
It moved above the August highs and quickly retreat and for the moment has failed at all-important long-term trendlines.
The BULLS will need this group to start a new leadership role if the indices are to continue this rally off the October lows.As of Friday’s close, while improved, the group remains in a long-term BEAR market trend.
Commodities
Last week we discussed a $24 target price if the Silver ETF (SLV) was able to break higher and closed at $21.75 on Friday.Another positive week is in the books and the last two weeks have produced a 10% gain for the ETF.Now it is important to see if (SLV) can hold above the breakout level for a run to the target.
Healthcare
The Select Healthcare ETF (XLV) has now rallied 12% off the closing lows in October, leaving this group of stocks challenging the all-time highs set in April.The sector is flat on the year outperforming the S&P which is down 16.5% YTD.
Biotech
The Biotech ETF (XBI) remains in a well-defined trading range and after challenging the top end of that range has succumbed to resistance.I continue to like the group in what appears to be Bear to Bull reversal pattern that has been in place since June.
Technology
It’s now been more than a year since the NASDAQ 100 made a new high.The index topped on November 22, 2021.
That means it has now been more than a year since the index made a new high, by far the longest period since the Financial Crisis days.
Before this decline, (NDX) usually recovered its losses within 4-7 months on the rare occasions when it corrected.The fact that it’s now gone more than a year without doing so supports my initial belief that we’ve entered a new market environment and technology is going to lag for quite some time.
The same analysis applies to the NASDAQ Composite.While the DJIA rallied back to its August high in late November, the NASDAQ Composite needs to rally 19% to overcome that level.
Semiconductors Sub-Sector
Like so many other sectors, the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) also challenged resistance recently.For a moment it appeared the group would break out to the upside only to see the ETF fall back in an attempt to find support.Investors will have to overlook a challenging fundamental backdrop with many semi-companies issuing cautionary guidance and early warnings about the industry.Like so many other areas of the market, the group has its winners and losers.Unfortunately with the Semiconductor index down 30% this year they are few and far between.
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)
The Basing trend remains and the ETF is once again at a critical support level.In a backdrop where valuation matters, many market analysts are wondering how this speculative growth area of the market seemingly refuses to buckle.
Cryptocurrency
When equities nearly broke out, crypto prices never made any sort of promising moves.
Looking at Bitcoin (BTC-USD), prices moved to the upper end of the past month’s post-FTX range.
Bitcoin turned lower leaving the world’s largest crypto well below its 50-Day moving average.
Ethereum likewise is below its 50-DMA despite trading near its highest levels in a month.While Bitcoin is further below its range from before the FTX saga, Ethereum’s move this week leaves it at similar levels to where it traded earlier in the fall.
Final Thoughts
When a market participant has to keep waiting for a catalyst to pop up in the next headline to get an idea of what comes next, it’s a terrible investing backdrop.That is exactly where investors find themselves today.
When I have to relentlessly search for any semblance of an economic growth initiative it leaves an empty feeling.When that empty feeling is then filled with policies that keep the economic train on the wrong track it becomes worrisome.That worry can turn into outright fear of what lies ahead.
However, one of the key themes to our investment strategy for 2023 will be to watch for the switch in what investors will need to focus on.There is a chance that inflation data has peaked.
Even though it may not drop to “normal” levels quickly, investors are becoming more and more in sync with it being here for a lot longer than originally anticipated.
The shift will be to what this economic scene is going to look like and I will be covering that as the situation unfolds in Q1 of next year.Today we deal with what is directly in front of us.The rally from the BEAR market closing lows now stands at ~8% for the S&P 500.In the short term what comes next will most likely depend on the next “headline”.
That leaves the bulk of investors in a very different, and often barren landscape.
Postscript
Please allow me to take a moment and remind all of the readers of an important issue.I provide investment advice to clients and members of my marketplace service.Each week I strive to provide an investment backdrop that helps investors make their own decisions.In these types of forums, readers bring a host of situations and variables to the table when visiting these articles.Therefore it is impossible to pinpoint what may be right for each situation.
In different circumstances, I can determine each client’s situation/requirements and discuss issues with them when needed.
That is impossible for readers of these articles.Therefore I will attempt to help form an opinion without crossing the line into specific advice.Please keep that in mind when forming your investment strategy.
THANKS to all of the readers that contribute to this forum to make these articles a better experience for everyone.
Best of Luck to Everyone!
What should you do now? “Cash in” on this rally OR “chase”.A recent Members Special Report covers the Bifurcated market scene and provides answers.
A NEW report on the Energy sector and the Initial installments of my Outlook for 2023 will be published in the next few weeks.
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This article was written by
INDEPENDENT Financial Adviser / Professional Investor- with over 35 years of navigating the Stock market’s “fear and greed” cycles that challenge the average investor.Investment strategies that combine Theory, Practice, and Experience to produce Portfolios focused on achieving positive returns.Last year I launched my Marketplace Service, “The SAVVY Investor”, and it’s been well received with positive reviews.
I’ve been part of the SA family since 2013 and correctly called the bull market for over 8+ years now.
MORE IMPORTANTLY, I recognized the change to the BEAR MARKET trend in February ’22.
Since then investors that followed my NEW ERA investment strategy have been able to survive and profit in this BEAR market.
Winning advice that is well documented, helping investors to avoid the pitfalls and traps that wreak havoc on a portfolio with a focus on Income and Capital Preservation.
I manage the capital of only a handful of families and I see it as my number one job to protect their financial security.They don’t pay me to sell them investment products, beat an index, abandon true investing for mindless diversification or follow the Wall Street lemmings down the primrose path.I manage their money exactly as I manage my own so I don’t take any risk at all unless I strongly believe it is worth taking.I invite you to join the family of satisfied members and join the “SAVVY Investor”.
Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of EVERY STOCK/ETF IN THE SAVVY PLAYBOOK either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions.I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha).I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Any claims made in this missive regarding specific Stocks/ ETFs and performance contained in this report are fully documented in the Savvy Investor Service.
My Equity Portfolio is positioned with certain positions Hedged.
Select Index Inverse ETFs are in place.
This article contains my views of the equity market, it reflects the strategy and positioning that is comfortable for me.
ONLY MY CORE positions are exempt from sale today.Of course, that is subject to change, and may not be suited for everyone, as each individual situation is unique.
Hopefully, it sparks ideas, adds some common sense to the intricate investing process, and makes investors feel calmer, putting them in control.
The opinions rendered here, are just that – opinions – and along with positions can change at any time.
As always I encourage readers to use common sense when it comes to managing any ideas that I decide to share with the community.Nowhere is it implied that any stock should be bought and put away until you die.
Periodic reviews are mandatory to adjust to changes in the macro backdrop that will take place over time.
The goal of this article is to help you with your thought process based on the lessons I have learned over the last 35+ years.Although it would be nice, we can’t expect to capture each and every short-term move..
