Bitcoin Will Bitcoin’s hashrate follow history to trigger another BTC decrease? Assessing… – Bitcoin’s hashrate hit a one-month low on Christmas day – Exchange reserves continued declining but BTC excelled in neutrality The Bitcoin [BTC] hashrate went off the radar on 25 December, hitting as low as 170.6 ExaHash per second (EH/s), CoinWarz data revealed.According to SatoshiActFund CEO, Dennis Porter, the incident occurred due to harsh weather conditions in Texas.Over 30% of the #Bitcoin hashrate has gone offline due to extreme weather in Texas and yet the global #Bitcoin network continues to work perfectly.Now imagine if Amazon or Google tried turning off 1/3rd of their data centers.pic.twitter.com/G49iqBZXDL — Dennis Porter (@Dennis_Porter_) December 25, 2022 Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-2024 It was paramount for the hashrate to be affected since the United States city housed a lot of Bitcoin miners.
The rasping weather meant that miners had to pause operations.Meanwhile, the hashrate dip did not halt BTC transactions despite hitting the lowest in almost a month.
BTC: Is it time for a repeat? In times past, the hashrate decreasing this much indicated a negative impact for BTC according to Korean crypto analyst Crypto Sunmoon.In fact, it implied certainty in a value decrease since the hashrate acts as the computing power for processing transactions on the Bitcoin network.Explaining his opinion via his CryptoQuant publication, Crypto Sunmoon said, “Hashrate has dropped dramatically.This suggests that some miners have stopped mining and are experiencing financial difficulties.Miners who stop mining are likely to sell their Bitcoins.In the past, when the hash rate (30 EMA) reached two peaked and decreased, bitcoin prices also decreased twice.” However, early BTC signs showed that the case might be different this time.This was due to the BTC price maintaining the $16,800 region at press time.According to CoinMarketCap, this represented a neutral position over the previous data.
In other ends, Bitcoin exchange reserves which declined earlier were still in the same region.According to Ghoddusifar, another CryptoQuant analyst, increase in reserves were usually accompanied with an increase in the BTC price.Hence, this dwindling case meant that BTC remained at risk of a further fall.Nonetheless, this could signify the start of a bullish crossover.
A 0.45X decrease IF BTC falls to Ethereum’s market cap? Chartwise, here’s the state of the king coin Per the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had exited its potential for buying strength.At the time of writing, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 51.33, maintaining neutral momentum.In the short term, BTC might likely fall to the demand of bears.This was due to the condition of the Exponential Moving Average (EMA).At press time, the 20 (blue) and 50 (yellow) EMAs were closely positioned.However, the 50 EMA still remained above a bit.
Hence, the bearish inference.Regarding the hashrate, Porter tweeted in the early hours of 26 December that it had recovered and reached a weekly high in less than 24 hours.The head of the mining advocacy association also mentioned Bitcoin’s engineering was exceptional and great for the electricity grid.The #Bitcoin hashrate plummeted 30% and recovered within 24 hours without any impact to the network.An engineering marvel.Tick-tock-next-block.
pic.twitter.com/0j2pYhAzwU — Dennis Porter (@Dennis_Porter_) December 26, 2022 200-week moving average Crypto Supporters Sift Through The Graveyard Of Technical Indicators That Failed To Predict Bitcoin’s Bottom As the end of 2022 approaches, a great number of bitcoin proponents are questioning whether or not the bottom is in as far as the official end of the crypto winter is concerned.The current bitcoin bear run just entered the longest bottom formation since the 2013-2015 bitcoin bear market.Moreover, analysts note that most of the technical bottom indicators used to predict bitcoin prices have failed to forecast whether or not the bottom is in.Rainbows and S2F: The List of Technical Indicators That Failed to Predict Bitcoin’s Bottom A month ago, crypto supporters celebrated enduring one of the longest and harshest bitcoin bear markets since the 2013-2015 bitcoin bear market.At the time, the 2013-2015 bitcoin bear run was the longest downturn but today, the current crypto economy’s contraction period is set to surpass the 2013-2015 crypto retrenchment.In addition to the longest bottom phase, Bitcoin.com News reported 144 days ago how a number of technical indicators failed this year to predict bitcoin’s future U.S.
dollar value.One of the biggest price model failures mentioned this year was the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which was denounced by Ethereum advocate Anthony Sassano and ETH-co-founder Vitalik Buterin last June.“We need more pain before we make a bottom” My man, we’ve seen: – a top 3 exchange collapse – 2 top VCs in the space get liq’d – 2 top 10 coins w/ a $60B+ mcap go to zero – lending market wiped out – Bitcoin down ~80% from ATH – alts down 90-99% from ATH What more do you want? — K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) December 22, 2022 With all the so-called ‘greatest’ technical indicators failing miserably, many crypto proponents are still writing forum posts and social media threads about bitcoin’s confounded bottom.For instance, on Dec.
27, the Twitter account Crypto Noob tweeted: “Bitcoin is currently trading in the oversold zone.Which is historically where the bottom forms.Do you think BTC has bottomed out?” Questions and posts like these are littered across crypto-focused forums and social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter.On Reddit, the subreddit forum r/cryptocurrency features a post that highlights how technical bottom indicators have failed, and the author of the post details that the analysts have “no clue” and this time “IS different.” The post’s author “u/Beyonderr” explains how eight technical indicators were not reliable to bitcoin traders this year.For example, the weekly RSI (relative strength index) was supposed to signal oversold levels and bitcoin’s bottom, but Beyonderr says “this was not true this year.” Other unreliable technical indicators Beyonderr mentioned include the monthly MACD (moving average convergence/divergence), the Rainbow price chart, the 200-week moving average, the 100-week moving average X 20-week moving average, the Pi cycle indicator, the Hash ribbons indicator, and the average percentage drawdown from a cycle’s high.
Moreover, Beyonderr mocked the S2F price model by calling it the “Meme bonus” indicator.“The worst indicator of them all, Plan B’s horrible Stock-to-flow model.Add it to the failed pile,” Beyonderr wrote.The post on r/cryptocurrency also mentioned that there may be four indicators that suggest the bottom “might be in,” at least according to Beyonderr.
The indicators Beyonderr cited include signals like “time in the market,” the “Puell Multiple,” the “Mayer Multiple,” and the “MVRV Z-score.” Meanwhile, a great number of people on social media platforms like Twitter wholeheartedly believe the bottom is awfully close to being in, but so far most technical signals have just been unreliable deviations.Tags in this story 200-week moving average, Beyonderr, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Indicators, Bitcoin markets, bottom, Charts, Crypto Noob, Forum Posts, indicators, M&A, MacD, Plan B, Predicting BTC bottoms, Predicting BTC prices, price signals, Rainbow Charts, Reddit, Relative Strength Index, RSI, S2F, signals, Social Media Posts, TA, Technical Analysis, Technical Indicator Discussion, Technical indicators, Tools What do you think about the failed technical indicators that could not predict bitcoin’s bottom? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.Jamie Redman Jamie Redman is the News Lead at Bitcoin.com News and a financial tech journalist living in Florida.Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011.He has a passion for Bitcoin, open-source code, and decentralized applications.Since September 2015, Redman has written more than 6,000 articles for Bitcoin.com News about the disruptive protocols emerging today.Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only.
It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies.Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice.Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.An analyst has explained that the absence of miners on the Ethereum network could be bullish for the ETHBTC ratio.
Miners Provide A Persistent Selling Pressure On Bitcoin As explained in a tweet by Tom Dunleavy, a Messari research analyst, BTC miners sell almost all the coins they mine.The below chart contains data about the top ten public Bitcoin mining companies, displaying information such as how much each of them mined this year, the amounts that they sold, and the size of their current holdings: Looks like Marathon is holding the largest reserve right now | Source: Tom Dunleavy on Twitter In total, the ten largest mining companies in the space mined a collective 40.7 BTC this year and sold 40.3 BTC.This means that they roughly dumped the entire supply that they mined in 2022 and in the process, applied constant selling pressure on the network.Earlier in the year, Ethereum successfully transitioned to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, which means the blockchain no longer uses miners for handling transactions, and rather uses stakers (investors that have locked 32 ETH in the PoS contract) to act as validating nodes.
In a Proof-of-Work (PoW) system, miners compete with each other using large amounts of computing power.Therefore, many expenses are involved in getting up their facilities, but one cost, in particular, stays with them as long as they continue to operate: the electricity bills.It is because of these electricity bills that miners have to continuously sell what they mine to keep their business sustainable.Some miners try to hold onto their reserves for as long as possible, like Marathon, and Hut8 can be seen doing in the chart.Still, in a market like right now, where electricity prices have shot up while the BTC price has plummeted due to the bear, margins are fine for the already debt-ridden public miners, and thus most of them can’t afford to accumulate.In the case of a PoS chain, however, stakers don’t incur such expenses and thus don’t have any particular need to sell the rewards they earn while staking.
This implies that the type of selling pressure that miners put on Bitcoin isn’t present on the Ethereum blockchain.The analyst believes that this fact provides a good thesis to be bullish on the ETHBTC ratio.
Ethereum Price At the time of writing, ETH is trading around $1,200, down 1% in the last week.The value of the crypto doesn’t seem to have moved much during the last few days | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView Featured image from Pierre Borthiry – Peiobty on Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com Hououin Kyouma Loves to write, enthusiastic about cryptocurrency.Currently studying Physics at university.No less than three renowned crypto institutions have recently given their predictions for the coming year 2023 – and there seems to be one favorite: Ethereum.
Other main themes for Coinbase, Darma Capital, and Cumberland include the migration of investors to quality projects, the burgeoning innovation from creative destruction, and some fundamental reforms for the crypto industry as a whole.The largest U.S.cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, estimates that crypto markets will not yet decouple from traditional financial markets in early 2023, with investors focusing on quality projects with sustainable tokenomics and mature ecosystems with liquidity.Coinbase Predicts Ethereum Ecosystem To Flourish Coinbase also predicts that the market for layer-1 competitors to Ethereum is oversaturated and that the coming year could be the year of layer-2 blockchains.
Thus, Ethereum’s competitors will have a tough time, according to Coinbase.While ETH and the Binance Smart Chain (BSC) will hold up well, TVL will migrate to layer 2 solutions such as Polygon, Optimism, and Arbitrum.Coinbase also predicts another boom for NFTs, which will see an evolution to integration with personalized IDs, ticketing, subscriptions, real-world assets (RWA) tokenization, and supply chain logistics.In addition, more companies will integrate NFTs for brand building and customer engagement.As a result of human error in the demise of FTX and other projects in 2022, the American exchange expects regulatory clarity to be critical to the next cycle.
Perhaps surprisingly, to some, Coinbase also says institutional lending will sprout and flourish in 2023 with improved due diligence processes – once the bottom is reached.As for the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Bitcoin, Coinbase predicts that Mt Gox distribution will not be the big event in 2023, as some analysts claim.Those who wanted to sell have already sold.Moreover, the distributions will be staggered.With regards to Ethereum, Coinbase shares a bullish outlook due to the Merge.
ETH is able to be more efficient as a result of the move to proof of stake and is also deflationary.Moreover, the U.S.
exchange predicts that the amount of liquid ETH will continue to decline once withdrawals from the deposit contract are possible after the Shanghai hard fork.Darma Capital Predicts ETH To Outperform Bitcoin Just like Coinbase, Darma Capital views the Ethereum Merge as a key development that will have a positive impact on the ETH price.The same goes for the Shanghai hard fork, which will lead to increased ETH staking.
On a technical level, Darma sees proto-danksharding as a game-changer for ETH, while it expects innovations from Lido Finance and Obol Network.
Fundamentally, Darma predicts that L2s will be key to adoption by the next wave of consumer-facing applications, mentioning Arbitrum, Optimism, and Immutable.“Vaporwave Chains” like EOS and Cardano will die out as they lose mainstream interest due to lack of on-chain adoption, Darma says.
The forecast for Bitcoin is not rosy either.According to the institution, BTC will lose market share to altcoins while Ethereum will accomplish the “flippening.” Responsible for this, according to Darma Capital, could be a lack of utility, ESG concerns, and a “failure as a digital gold.” In general, the digital asset risk management advisor expects that the macroeconomic situation will result in a freeze on interest rate hikes by the U.S.Federal Reserve until the second quarter of 2023.Consequently, the crypto market will see another bull run in Q3 2023.Three Emerging Narratives Cumberland DRW LLC expects challenging market conditions and clear regulatory frameworks in 2023 that will lead to innovative solutions.With this in mind, retail investors will focus on exchanges that can score with transparency, spot trading without prefunding, ISDAs & CSAs, the institution says.
As three emerging narratives, the company identifies Bitcoin and Ethereum as reserve currencies, NFTs for IP tokenization, loyalty programs, and customer engagement, specifically citing MATIC, LOOKS, XMON, and GameFi.
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